Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

[Catacol]

and the garden is currently filling up with snow.

Not in the SW it isnt... hence the worries over the medium and long term. We have cold air but very little snow. A good many have had none so far.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[chionomaniac]

Further to my earlier post there is a certain amount of irony in the fact that the SSW has directly led to this cold spell and yet that the latest warming that destroys the Canadian vortex segment could also potentially lead to its downfall!

[Timmytour]

Well. where I am it's been great.... turned colder last weekend, snowed a long time on monday, snowed on friday and snowed all day today!

Well what's the future hold? As i've said before....I remember a great early FEB 09 and it then being forecast that the second half of the month would be even colder....that never materialised and in fact it became springlike. So the forecast of a colder spell to come after a bit of a breakdown is something that is enough for me to register an interest without actually buying at the moment.

However, although the prospects seem a bit bleak after next weekend looking at the models now, it's worth remembering that two weeks prior to the start of this particular spell, things didn't seem that exciting. Indeed here is a "straw-clutching" post put up by Itsy on 30th December...turned out what he was sensing delivered more than perhaps the model wanted to show that far out!

Posted 30 December 2012 - 16:34

Not that great in isolation, but the huge siberian block (that has never really gone away) looks west to northern Greenland, while the Atlantic stalls and heights shoot up from Europe. Anything could happen from here.

Edit:

Indeed, this is where we end up a few frames later

A slider low (we should all take that with a pinch of something), a Svalbard high developing and heights rising from the Atlantic.

Exactly the sort of potentially 'interesting' scenario that could be expected out of a SSW event

EDIT 2:

In the end, it came to nothing (a fleeting -5upper cold spell), but it is more interesting than anything we have seen for a while and it could be a trend. could be a trend.

[Jaffusmaximus]

Further to my earlier post there is a certain amount of irony in the fact that the SSW has directly led to this cold spell and yet that the latest warming that destroys the Canadian vortex segment could also potentially lead to its downfall!

But could this be beneficial for Feb in that it leaves room for heights to build? Or will the process just eat into the remainder of winter?

Edited January 20, 2013 by Jaffusmaximus

[Frosty.]

We can only base our analysis of the outputs from what we see and that is overwhelming support for a warm up and a return to Atlantic mobility in 5 days time backed by GFS, it's ensembles, UKMO, ECM and with Ian's input above strengthening that outcome still more. What is more unsavoury is the thought of a milder Anticyclonic spell which is shown on both GFS and ECM late in their runs indicating a strong West or SW flow with dry or dryish weather in the South with High pressure over France sending ever milder SW winds our way. Once in that sort of pattern it can become set for a while. Still a long way off with plenty of swings through the coming week I'm sure.

Well said Gibby, just tell it how it is, nobody here, or very few want it to happen but the smoke is starting to clear now on a change back to the normal uk default winter pattern of average/mild zoneality, that depression by friday looks strong enough to shunt the cold block well to the east and then we will have at least a week and maybe longer of normal weather before we can start looking realistically for the next cold snap.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Jason M]

Alex Deakin must have some reason/evidence to support what on the face of it is a bold statement from such a high profile forecaster. Not sure he would be sticking his head above the parapet like that otherwise. I agree with you Frosty that the mild appears to be a done deal at this stage but I would love to know what made Alex say this.

Nope, not a done deal. It's the form horse of course but said horse only has to wander near a Tescos and everything changes :-)

I wouldn't discount a rinse and repeat scenario. Last night it was maybe a 50/50 bet but tonight its more an 70/30 against.

Jason

[OldMetMan]

Not in the SW it isnt... hence the worries over the medium and long term. We have cold air but very little snow. A good many have had none so far.

I wonder if you saw the fascinating documentary about the 1963 winter on BBC2 last night? I don't know if you are of the generation that experienced it, but when the SW DOES get snow, it can get it on a phenomenal scale as happened back then. Plenty of winter left yet for everyone to get their fill of snow!

[karlos1983]

Not in the SW it isnt... hence the worries over the medium and long term. We have cold air but very little snow. A good many have had none so far.

Sorry, but the Garden has been more full for me than the previous 2 years, so I'm fairly happy, certainly not going to write winter off yet.

[IDO]

MattHugo81

Every single ECM ensemble member has an unsettled W or SW'ly flow over the UK by Mon 28th with just differences in position of low to the NW

20/01/2013 20:32

MattHugo81

EC ENS mean supports the EC model out to 240hrs with a dominant low to the NW of the UK and a W or SW'ly air flow over the UK.

20/01/2013 20:29

Pretty much nailed on then.

Edited January 20, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[tinybill]

Nope, not a done deal. It's the form horse of course but said horse only has to wander near a Tescos and everything changes :-)

I wouldn't discount a rinse and repeat scenario. Last night it was maybe a 50/50 bet but tonight its more an 70/30 against.

Jason

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

i know what alex dekin said to night but by feb its back so i will be enjoining looking at the gfs tomorrow night if and when i get home stumbling through the snow !!!

[Catacol]

But could this be beneficial for Feb in that it leaves room for heights to build? Or will the process just eat into the remainder of winter?

We dont want heights over Canada. This may encourage a SW flow. We need heights over Greenland, but the ex-Canadian vortex is setting up residence. Last time it did so it took a fortnight to s*d off...

[Catacol]

I wonder if you saw the fascinating documentary about the 1963 winter on BBC2 last night? I don't know if you are of the generation that experienced it, but when the SW DOES get snow, it can get it on a phenomenal scale as happened back then. Plenty of winter left yet for everyone to get their fill of snow!

Born in 1970 so no - but I am aware of the snow possibilities here and the channel low scenario. That is what made Friday so personally frustrating - there was just so little precipitation it was unreal. I hope that there is indeed a good bit of winter left - this week may yet deliver the goods though there is a greater westerly influence entering these slider lows now so I see rain. Beyond that my analysis - flawed though I hope it is - is telling me we may have to wait a good bit for some kind of pattern reload after the atlantic wins at the weekend.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Catacol_Highlander

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

I wonder if you saw the fascinating documentary about the 1963 winter on BBC2 last night? I don't know if you are of the generation that experienced it, but when the SW DOES get snow, it can get it on a phenomenal scale as happened back then. Plenty of winter left yet for everyone to get their fill of snow!

A fascinating look at an incredibly severe winter: Intense cold with sea, canals and rivers entirely freezing. Roaring blizzards on an epic scale with 90 mph gusts and people being caught in their vehicles and suffocating to death. Monumental drifts even half burying racecourse stands etc. Stuff that, although in living memory, is still beyond belief for here in Britain but it happened nevertheless and we should be aware that it will happen again!

[Blizzardof82]

MattHugo81

Every single ECM ensemble member has an unsettled W or SW'ly flow over the UK by Mon 28th with just differences in position of low to the NW

20/01/2013 20:32

MattHugo81

EC ENS mean supports the EC model out to 240hrs with a dominant low to the NW of the UK and a W or SW'ly air flow over the UK.

20/01/2013 20:29

Pretty much nailed on then.

Is that the same Matt Hugo who had the majority of members bringing in a Northeasterly recently the ENS are as fickle as the models!

[TEITS]

MattHugo81

Every single ECM ensemble member has an unsettled W or SW'ly flow over the UK by Mon 28th with just differences in position of low to the NW

20/01/2013 20:32

MattHugo81

EC ENS mean supports the EC model out to 240hrs with a dominant low to the NW of the UK and a W or SW'ly air flow over the UK.

20/01/2013 20:29

Pretty much nailed on then.

Looks like it but im not too downbeat about it though. Infact I shall actually welcome a break from the cold because this 2 week cold spell would of consisted of several heavy snowfalls and max temps struggling to get above freezing. Whilst it isn't to the standards of those classic winters I remember in the 1980s its still been pretty impressive.

Worth also adding that +384 on the model output only takes us to the 5th Feb. Plenty of winter left yet and I remain hopeful we could even see a colder spell occur than the one we have just seen.

[bluearmy]

Further to my earlier post there is a certain amount of irony in the fact that the SSW has directly led to this cold spell and yet that the latest warming that destroys the Canadian vortex segment could also potentially lead to its downfall!

You can take the optiistic view that its a 'means to an end'. The blocks which sat in the wrong place for us late nov were responsible for driving the wave activity in the right locales to assist the SSW occuring and susequent split vortex. If the canadian vortex is to get to our east it has to bring a zonal period with it. Once there, we are hopefully able to build a decent greeny block in feb. if it stays where it is, there is no chance of a strong greeny block and the wedges of heights that have been deflecting the jet nw/se cannot continue forever. The question for me is how long the mobility survives. Looking at the recent week 2 gefs, i am taken by ian's comment that mogreps trends towards a 'warmish' block. Thats about the favouriite non zonal gefs pick. Now where would a mid lat block in feb be likely to head with no canadian/greenland vortex in place?

Shall we say around the 10th feb for the retrogression? Now theres a glass half full post!

[offerman]

Oldmetman, how much snow did the s.w actually get back then? Thanks om.

[Ian Brown]

I think now there is pretty solid NWP agreement for the Atlantic to prevail by Saturday. A blaze of glory exit for the cold spell on the GFS but a rather boring transition to milder uppers shown on the ECM/UKMO.

I wouldn't get too hung up on the longer range ECM, we know that once the models have decided on bringing zonality in, then they just like to barrel the jet thru to Russia in the lower resolution. The pattern has to evolve and unless the set-up is exceptional then we have to take an Atlantic return on the chin at some point.

The METO continue to call for a return to cold so I will be looking for positive trends in FI from the models over the coming days. Hopefully we can see the NAO turn negative but we will need to see a reversal in the trend of all this energy spilling out of Canada.

[John Badrick]

Do we now look for signs for spring in the models or a reload, not much hope in the SSW thread with the Canadian vortex being less favourable for us!!!!

[UV-RAY]

Well said Gibby, just tell it how it is, nobody here, or very few want it to happen but the smoke is starting to clear now on a change back to the normal uk default winter pattern of average/mild zoneality, that depression by friday looks strong enough to shunt the cold block well to the east and then we will have at least a week and maybe longer of normal weather before we can start looking realistically for the next cold snap.

Personally I can't wait to see the back end of what as been an East/West split, though there are parts there too that have missed out. I've only recorded three frosts and sub zero temps, there has been little in the way of sun or snow and quite frankly it's one of the most overrated cold spells in the last forty years.

Back to the models and from what I've seen the models look very similar to December, cool and unsettled, with little sign of the elusive Greenland heights and -NAO.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Methuselah]

Nope, not a done deal. It's the form horse of course but said horse only has to wander near a Tescos and everything changes :-)

I wouldn't discount a rinse and repeat scenario. Last night it was maybe a 50/50 bet but tonight its more an 70/30 against.

Jason

Very true. Being the 'form horse' didn't stop Shergar from disappearing...

[Robbie Garrett]

With all due respect, credit where credit's due Matt Hugo has provided a great insight past where we can only dream of venturing. He has access to ECM 32 day and provides great valued information to us.

Obviously it's not nailed yet though, nothing is during this time. South Westerly/Westerly might be a massive snow event also and this could change to something like 1963 where the cold fights back and provides us with a good dumping. Snow reflects 85% of UV radiation, so it's going to be quite hard now for the Atlantic to just win...

Models might be showing exactly what they where showing one week ago. This is last week's 18z for today 1900z

And this is the actual chart...

Support or no Support, this is the 18z chart for today. Go figure....

Let's see if this chart verifies exactly for next Sunday, as it doesn't look too dissimilar to the 13th's 18z...

Edited January 20, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[mulzy]

Look at the displaced vortex though!! Surely this is just the energy transferring from the (diminishing) Canadian segment over towards the Siberian segment.

To me the ECM 240 chart shows the PV on it's travels. Look to the far north west. The PV is moving out of that region, this is a very good thing for a cold Feb IMO. Although at this range it's prob not worth to much.

Straw-clutching at its best. That kind of chart will literally warm the hearts of the mid rampers on here.

Truly abysmal for cold.

Edited January 20, 2013 by mulzy

[OldMetMan]

Born in 1970 so no - but I am aware of the snow possibilities here and the channel low scenario. That is what made Friday so personally frustrating - there was just so little precipitation it was unreal. I hope that there is indeed a good bit of winter left - this week may yet deliver the goods though there is a greater westerly influence entering these slider lows now so I see rain. Beyond that my analysis - flawed though I hope it is - is telling me we may have to wait a good bit for some kind of pattern reload after the atlantic wins at the weekend.

I do understand. Friday was a far stranger event than many realise, especially for those of us living on the coast, where with S or SE winds it too often just rains. Instead the extremely low dewpoints over France were drawn towards the frontal zone at such speed, it was all snow. Never seen that before. But the longer sea track in your part of the world clearly made a difference.

There are many odd features to this present cold spell, not least of which is that it isn't actually that cold! Seems an odd thing to say but the thickness values have been hovering around 528 throughout, unlike say 2010 when they got down to 516 and below - that IS cold. But, all credit to the Met for the accuracy of their snow distribution forecasts.

Blocked patterns do tend to repeat - that is something I have seen happen so often in the past - so I put my faith in that observation this time around!

[OldMetMan]

A fascinating look at an incredibly severe winter: Intense cold with sea, canals and rivers entirely freezing. Roaring blizzards on an epic scale with 90 mph gusts and people being caught in their vehicles and suffocating to death. Monumental drifts even half burying racecourse stands etc. Stuff that, although in living memory, is still beyond belief for here in Britain but it happened nevertheless and we should be aware that it will happen again!

Quite so! I witnessed it first hand - I lived on the Isle of Wight - and saw snow drifts of 2-3 metres or more a mile or so from where I lived, plus snow was on the ground in our front garden from Boxing Day 1962 to the first week in March 1963!

Not that long ago, a certain meteorologist proclaimed that snow was becoming a thing of the past in this country! I think he is eating his words now.

Sorry mods for wandering off topic but I think it's important, especially the younger members who have not seen it for themselves, to realise what CAN happen here in winter!