Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

[Polar Maritime]

Well according to GP we should start to see the next cold spell start to firm up by the models from the 28th Jan.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Loads of talk of the breakdown being nailed etc etc....well yes there is a warm up coming it would seem but not before we get some serious nightime minima this week. Also does anyone want to say how this breakdown will occur, manifest itself and play out? Because I for one don't think the models are suddenly 'accurate' all of a sudden and I think there'll be some changes for sure. IF the Canadian section of the PV moves our way then I'd anticipate some pretty wild weather to come. Maybe another type of extreme winter weather to be experienced IF this happens?

Anything other than 1000 mile boring SW'lies please. I'm reserving judgement on this breakdown and how it plays out as its still t120 really and minor differences can have big implications in our locale.

BFTP

Well according to GP we should start to see the next cold spell start to firm up by the models from the 28th Jan.

Is it coming?

BFTP

Edited January 21, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Polar Maritime]

Loads of talk of the breakdown being nailed etc etc....well yes there is a warm up coming it would seem but not before we get some serious nightime minima this week. Also does anyone want to say how this breakdown will occur, manifest itself and play out? Because I for one don't think the models are suddenly 'accurate' all of a sudden and I think there'll be some changes for sure. If the Canadian section of the PV moves our way then I'd anticipate some pretty wild weather to come. Maybe another type of extreme winter weather to be experienced?

Anything other than 1000 mile boring SW'lies please

BFTP

Is it coming?

BFTP

Well we shall see, we all know what happened last time he said that... .

[Methuselah]

Well chaps:

Considering that the sun a bog-standard, G-type, Main Sequence star, two-thirds of the way out from the Galactic centre, with an effective black-body radiation temperature of somewhere around 5700C; and has a regular-ish sunspot cycle. I can make a 'forecast' that clearly will reach the parts that other forecasts cannot reach:

The next cold spell in NW Europe will be brutal and catastrophic!

So - back to what the real models are saying?

Edit: Don't forget to subscribe!!! Absolutely everything you WANT to hear - for only £32.67 per minute!

Edited January 21, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[bluearmy]

dont suppose nick could have a gander through the postage stamps and see how many members send some waa up with the trough digging a bit as the atlantic meets the ridge to our east. just wondering how resilient the cold air might be come the weekend. looking very cold if skies are clear later this week.

[lutfishah]

Well according to GP we should start to see the next cold spell start to firm up by the models from the 28th Jan.

Of the topic but this is somthing which match with GP thoughts... PC is been spot on till now guys.. Here is what he said today

Breaking News snips (newest on top)

(21 Jan ~7.45utc) Snow accumulations confirming 17-21st WeatherAction forecast.

- Piers says:

=> As more snow falls Mon 21st the many reports from observers in COMMENTS - end of this blog - and on twitter are confirming the heavy snow predicted by WeatherAction to 'possibly' exceed a foot in total in places is being confirmed with ~12inches being reached (even without drifting) in places.

=> The doubling or trebling of MetO predicted amounts (12/24hr ahead) has also been confirmed in places.

=> WeatherAction's predicted Sudden Stratospheric Warming ~17-18Jan was well confirmed. The graph http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.gif

well shows (although scale small notice peak just passed) extra warmth peaking around then.

=> THUNDER with snow 'very high' risk - ie THUNDERSNOW - in period 17-20th (R5+) was also confirmed. This is quite rare and very significant.

=> On 21st as we move out of the WeatherAction R5+ 17-20th the sun is showing a quieter face as we expected

http://bit.ly/Yi68oX and solar wind speed is dropping markedly: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html 4th graph

=> WHAT NEXT? AS USUAL for the last 2 or 3 weeks standard MetO etc model projections show mild weather arriving in 5 or 6 or 7 days time and as usual they will be wrong (90% confidence). NOTICE the lack of solar activity forcing 26-28th in detailed 30d WeatherAction forecast (Have you subscribed?) will mean that MetO forecast for then will overestimate frontal activity. The strengthening Greenland High during the week will also work against their warming wish.

=> Our WeatherAction expectation for another Sudden Stratospheric Warming and quite likley even heavier snow in UK, Ireland and Europe at end Jan/start Feb still stands (see forecast link below for detail)

[Polar Maritime]

Well chaps:

Considering that the sun a bog-standard, G-type, Main Sequence star, two-thirds of the way out from the Galactic centre, with an effective black-body radiation temperature of somewhere around 5700C; and has a regular-ish sunspot cycle. I can make a 'forecast' that clearly will reach the parts that other forecasts cannot reach:

The next cold spell in NW Europe will be brutal and catastrophic!

So - back to what the real models are saying?

EDIT- RP Dont forget to subscribe...^

Not if the Solar Sausage spoils things

Edited January 21, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[weatherguy]

Well chaps:

Considering that the sun a bog-standard, G-type, Main Sequence star, two-thirds of the way out from the Galactic centre, with an effective black-body radiation temperature of somewhere around 5700C; and has a regular-ish sunspot cycle. I can make a 'forecast' that clearly will reach the parts that other forecasts cannot reach:

The next cold spell in NW Europe will be brutal and catastrophic!

So - back to what the real models are saying?

I thought we relied on pigeons or collared doves for this sort of thing?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well chaps:

Considering that the sun a bog-standard, G-type, Main Sequence star, two-thirds of the way out from the Galactic centre, with an effective black-body radiation temperature of somewhere around 5700C; and has a regular-ish sunspot cycle. I can make a 'forecast' that clearly will reach the parts that other forecasts cannot reach:

The next cold spell in NW Europe will be brutal and catastrophic!

So - back to what the real models are saying?

Can we get out of this one first please?

BFTP

[TEITS]

Whats going on here because this is very different.

[bluearmy]

Whats going on here because this is very different.

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-114.png?6

different jet profile - reminiscent of yesterdays 00z gem - a tad further east.

it is the 06z though!

[TEITS]

Maybe i've jumped the gun in presuming the cold spell will end.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

This is very different even at +72 as this run develops and tracks a SW SE!!

For now I shall refrain from reading too much into this but it will be interesting to see what the 12Z shows.

[bluearmy]

Maybe i've jumped the gun in presuming the cold spell will end.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn721.png

This is very different even at +72 as this run develops and tracks a SW SE!!

For now I shall refrain from reading too much into this but it will be interesting to see what the 12Z shows.

will revert back thereafter dave.

[shaky]

Whats going on here because this is very different.

This is what i was sayin earlier!!something is brewing for the weekend!!do you think the models have not taken in count the snow cover and all the cold dense air that is over us yet and slowly are picking up on it!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Whats going on here because this is very different.

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-114.png?6

Indeed Dave, something to watch. Do we believe the models have all of a sudden got the 5-8 day time frame nailed? That to me is early signs of the the blocking not losing its influence. Small changes have bif effect, I think it could be an interesting weeks model watching again.

BFTP

Edited January 21, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Polar Maritime]

Looking at the latest BBC monthly outlook for next week they suggest that temp's will not get above average, mostly staying just below average... . So no real end to the cold spell..?

By the start of the week, it looks increasingly likely that we'll see a return to a westerly air flow that is expected to bring successive Atlantic weather systems across many parts of the UK. This will mean spells of wet and windy weather for most. At the moment it's a little bit difficult to pinpoint the exact details of the forecast through this period, but it does look as if temperatures will recover slightly. That doesn't mean any significantly milder weather is envisaged though, as it's likely that we will still see temperatures struggling to reach average values. For this reason, it will still feel pretty chilly at times as we move into the start of February.

Edited January 21, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[WhiteFox]

Whats going on here because this is very different.

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-114.png?6

The ECM showed this solution a couple of runs ago IIRC. Another possibility I guess, but longer odds unless it finds support.

[snowking]

I think we have pretty solid support for this. However the very end of the week could be interesting with some incredibly low min temps before the warm up arrives.

A straw to clutch is this below.

http://cdn.nwstatic....mslReyjavic.png

Around the 5th Feb is when we could see the elusive GH develop if this trend continues.

Nuuk showing similar mean height rises too:

Still a lot of scatter in the ensembles beyond day 5 meaning that I wouldn't be taking too many specifics from the output beyond this point. Pretty good consensus for something less cold, but i'm becoming less and less convinced of anything considered 'mild', and increasingly convinced of something a bit higher pressured towards our NW

Having just flicked through the 0z ensembles for day 10, a fair bit of support for this from individual pet's, with more forcing from the siberian side in terms of cyclogenesis.

MJO becoming more and more keen from NWP on phase 7 late jan, into phase 8 early february:

Both signal a large positive pressure anomaly to our NW:

Signs also from GFS FI of some weak stratospheric ridging around the Greenland/Iceland locale:

It should be noted that this signal is stronger at 100mb than 30mb (at least from the 0z), though nothing spectacular.

Overall then I am becoming less and less convinced of the spell beyond the weekend being anything other than a short blip in a below average regime.

SK

Edited January 21, 2013 by snowking

[southbank]

3 days ago ukmo/ecm showed this cold spell had longevity of sorts then on saturday we started to see somewhat a quicker breakdown certainly by friday/saturday

I believe we cant read anything pass T72 as we see pulses of Jet energy being modeled one way or another which clearly has an effect further down the line.

noone at present can call an end or a prolonged cold spell , is the 06z about to show and changing trend , not sure but fascinating all the same

[Polar Gael 2]

I thought we relied on pigeons or collared doves for this sort of thing?

Surely grebes...?

Back on topic, the 06z GFS isn't exactly toasty for Scotland as far out as next Sunday; a lot of surface cold still around. Breakdown 'nailed on'? We shall see.

[bluearmy]

The much maligned CFS (non bias corrected on meteociel) was obviously the first model to show january solutions as the SSW came into view of the models and showed big neg AO/NAO scenarios starting around the 10 th jan at the earliest. now the truth is we have seen something much watered down from those sypnotics but still the model picked up that the northern arm would head south at this timescale and thats what transpired. the last four runs of the 1 month output all deliver cold after the first week of feb. can anyone find any model output that says mobile in a fortnights time ?

[Frosty.]

EDIT- RP Dont forget to subscribe...^

Not if the Solar Sausage spoils things

we need the sausage shaped high that steve murr loves

Back to models, it looks a very active spell after this week, very windy at times and with a lot of rain but it probably won't last more than a week before GP's brutal cold arrives.

[TEITS]

I still think the eventual outcome will be a return to milder W/SW,lys. However has the 06Z picked up on a new trend here. We all know the models are always hesitant is showing energy going SE until this becomes into the +72 timeframe. So what im thinking is just maybe we could see a new trend where we hold onto the colder temps for a few days. Beyond this and the quicker the vortex moves E the better.

[Paul_1978]

Scandinavian heights much stronger at T+120 than on the 00z....interesting.

But will they push more westwards on each run?

[lord stratus]

Maybe i've jumped the gun in presuming the cold spell will end.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn721.png

This is very different even at +72 as this run develops and tracks a SW SE!!

For now I shall refrain from reading too much into this but it will be interesting to see what the 12Z shows.

Ties in with the BBC forecast 5 minutes ago, they seemed to be talking down milder weather this weekend.