Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

[Summer Sun]

The milder air is starting to win out at t96 shifting the cold away to the east

Could be a snowy breakdown for some

before it quickly turns to rain

The milder air is coming in more quickly on the 12z compared to the 06z

Edited January 21, 2013 by Gavin.

[Anti-Mild]

UKMO and GFS wildly different at +96. FI no further than +72. Give it another couple of days!!

Out at +114 and we have a 928mb low which patently is not going to happen! Until that gets within high res and is modelled correctly then the GFS is as good as useless!

Edited January 21, 2013 by Anti-Mild

[MR EXTREMES]

it does seem the models want to breakdown the cold alot quicker than yesterday ukmo included i think id rather except this is going to happen but atleast most of the north and east will go out with a bang.

[Cloud 10]

Milder air trying to move in from the west at t90

UKMO just smashes the blocking to the north at 96 hrs....

....but can we trust it...

These cards are made ​​from the raw data from the English model UKMO (UK Met Office) with a resolution of 1.25deg between 0h and 72h and between 96 and 144h 2.5deg. Refreshes the start to 5:10 ET 17:10, an update takes about 30 minutes. The colored diodes near deadlines can track the progress of the generation cards UKMO model predictions.

[The Eagle]

This is pretty vindictive stuff from the west after the cold spell

I'd imagine this pattern will see us in to February.

[MR EXTREMES]

yep gfs and ukmo nearly identical milder by t120 would like to see the stubbon heights to our east now be removed to let the pattern reset and move forward.

[warrenb]

Ah the classic reset comment, total twaddle I am afraid. Milder for a time and then Greeny high

[Liam J]

This is pretty vindictive stuff from the west after the cold spell

I'd imagine this pattern will see us in to February.

We certainly aren't heading into a boring weather pattern I think into next week it won't be the ice & snow causuing disruption but rather damaging winds and heavy rainfall, some very disturbed charts right across the outputs.

[cyclonic happiness]

We certainly aren't heading into a boring weather pattern I think into next week it won't be the ice & snow causuing disruption but rather damaging winds and heavy rainfall, some very disturbed charts right across the outputs.

Well at least we can't say the weather's been especially boring this winter, we've had most things so far, gales have been lacking, here at least...oh, and a 'big freeze'

[Alexis]

That storm in the Atlantic hasn't got our name on it - don't worry :-)

[pyrotech]

That storm in the Atlantic hasn't got our name on it - don't worry :-)

Look again at the isobars, them kinks indicate weather fronts off that huge low with persistant heavy rain embedded.

The Southwest UK has still not recovered and water table still very high, so maybe the winds will spare us the worst, but for those in the Southwest that is certainly a storm system that can be the start of another miserable period. what many down there want, is a blocking right over the UK with settled conditions and its the one thing the models are not trending or hinting towards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

After all the 12z GFS has shown us so far I bet the Greenland high shows up in FI

[Catacol]

Look again at the isobars, them kinks indicate weather fronts off that huge low with persistant heavy rain embedded.

The Southwest UK has still not recovered and water table still very high, so maybe the winds will spare us the worst, but for those in the Southwest that is certainly a storm system that can be the start of another miserable period. what many down there want, is a blocking right over the UK with settled conditions and its the one thing the models are not trending or hinting towards.

Agreed - last thing we want is more heavy rain. Settled is what we need; if not settled then at least some damned snow which so far we have not got. Rain is very much a distant third in the shopping list.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

That storm in the Atlantic hasn't got our name on it - don't worry :-)

Yes I'm sure it will dive South East at the last minute bringing a severe Easterly gale and blizzard conditions nationwide...did I say that out loud?!

Must stop hopecasting / fantasising lol!

[Timmytour]

Yes I'm sure it will dive South East at the last minute bringing a severe Easterly gale and blizzard conditions nationwide...did I say that out loud?!

Must stop hopecasting / fantasising lol!

Time will tell if you are only hopecasting or fantasising. But perhaps you are more astute at reading what is going to evolve then even the models themselves are at this point in time

Edited January 21, 2013 by Timmytour

[shotski]

Ah the classic reset comment, total twaddle I am afraid. Milder for a time and then Greeny high

Er... Isn't that what they ment by a reset pattern ?

[weatherguy]

Agreed - last thing we want is more heavy rain. Settled is what we need; if not settled then at least some damned snow which so far we have not got. Rain is very much a distant third in the shopping list.

I think this may be a tady IMBY given that most parts of the UK have had an absolute pasting over the last week or so...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Very interesting FI pattern once again with heights rising generally at northern latitudes

It seems once that piece of vortex loses its energy (does so pretty quickly on recent runs) we're plunged back into status quo with perhaps stronger blocking this time.

I think (and hope) we may have a stab at a more convective type of cold pattern, if the cold is indeed to come back to our shores.

Feb CET thread should be opening soon....might be worth having a cheeky sub 2C punt!

Edited January 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[pyrotech]

I think this may be a tady IMBY given that most parts of the UK have had an absolute pasting over the last week or so...

I think its in reference to what the models are trending towards and the discussion about unwanted rainfall in the Southwest and although IMBY for them could well become the story as the weeks evolve. The story is about that part of our country still being at flood risk and that a normal settled period has not evolved and Snow that most of us have enjoyed has been rain in some of those pre xmas flood areas. Its another concern as we watch the models over the next two weeks

[igloo]

i would be surprised if we dont get another cold shot before mid fed after the return of the atlantic by the weekend. on quite a few GFS runs over the past few days HP is shown its hand once again to start building again if you take a look at the canadian PV its busted once we get into the first week of fed that is great news for blocking

Edited January 21, 2013 by igloo

[Captain Shortwave]

The ensembles should be interesting, one think I noted from the 6z, at T384 (end of the run), not one member had an 850 temp of 0 degrees or above, very odd considering you should get many default zonal runs. I think there is a big signal in there and shown on this run for pressure to rise to our north west when the vortex segment makes it across the Atlantic

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ensembles should be interesting, one think I noted from the 6z, at T384 (end of the run), not one member had an 850 temp of 0 degrees or above, very odd considering you should get many default zonal runs. I think there is a big signal in there and shown on this run for pressure to rise to our north west when the vortex segment makes it across the Atlantic

Yes there is a strong signal on the GFS and CFS for heights stretching across from Greenland to Scandi, initiating 1st week of February

Though as we have seen, models can be fickle so caution is required!

Edited January 21, 2013 by CreweCold

[SnowObsessor90]

i would be surprised if we dont get another cold shot before mid fed after the return of the atlantic by the weekend. on quite a few GFS runs over the past few days HP is shown its hand once again to start building again if you take a look at the canadian PV its busted once we get into the first week of fed that is great news for blocking

Going by GP's thoughts it really wouldn't surprise if the next Model rollercoaster has gotten underway by some point next week, I guess only time will tell.

Edited January 21, 2013 by SnowObsessor90

[ABCD]

I'm really just learning all this stuff so if this is nonsense please feel free to tell me but doesn't the GFS show a shortish northerly/northeasterly blast around the 4th/5th Feb followed by the HP setting up shop over the UK and channelling the colder air into Europe? For those that want cold/wintry weather wouldn't that HP need to be further North and West to deliver? These are the charts I'm referring to, hope they link correctly:

Short blast:

HP setting up shop over UK:

[Panayiotis]

I'm really just learning all this stuff so if this is nonsense please feel free to tell me but doesn't the GFS show a shortish northerly/northeasterly blast around the 4th/5th Feb followed by the HP setting up shop over the UK and channelling the colder air into Europe? For those that want cold/wintry weather wouldn't that HP need to be further North and West to deliver? These are the charts I'm referring to, hope they link correctly:

Short blast:

http://modeles.meteo...nh-1-360.png?12

HP setting up shop over UK:

http://modeles.meteo...0-384.png?12?12

Yes very true but its 2 weeks away, and a lot can change in that time.