Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

[weatherguy]

So what does this mean?

It means it would be unwise to take anything the models are showing after around that timescale (which is FI right now) with a great big heap of salt.

The trend is showing once again to model the LPs which break down our block to track further and further south as the time period nears. Not saying the exact same will happen as last week where a total backtrack was made, but to write off this coldspell, even with model agreement, would be naive at this stage.

Edit - just seen the picture; that of course means snowmageddon is on the way! clearly

Edited January 20, 2013 by weatherguy

[Snowman.]

To be fair the GFS has been very poor over the last week or so very much lost my trust but when in a zonal pattern he is my best friend at predicting far out.

[Polar Maritime]

Going by the BBC Week ahead Weather forecast, they seem to think the cold is going to win.. I hope they are right ! Even on there Friday graphics the Midlands are still stuck around freezing all day, im expecting the GFS to change it's tune out in FI.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[weather eater]

Can anyone recall what this thread's is meant to be about?

Some womans G-string isn't it

[J10]

Some womans G-string isn't it

Wrong type of models.

[weather eater]

So what does this mean?

Judging by the plump look of those pigeons I would take that as meaning the bulk of this winter so far has not been cold

[mike Meehan]

Did you watch that 1963 documentary last night?

Atlantic may make inroads slightly, but I can't see it being full blown zonal. We need that vortex chunk over newfoundland to dissipate and then some true northern blocking will come into place.

Yes, I remember that 'thaw' about 26.01.1963 - it made me feel quite depressed, as though I was losing a good friend. However, all was not lost, it was only there for 2 or 3 days before my mate, 'Snowy' returned

[Frosty.]

Going by the BBC Week ahead Weather forecast, they seem to think the cold is going to win.. I hope they are right ! Even on there Friday graphics the Midlands are still stuck around freezing all day, im expecting the GFS to change it's tune out in FI.

Considering the gfs was recently showing the cold block collapsing on wednesday, we have reasons to be more optimistic and any breakdown won't be as currently modelled when the time comes.

[mike Meehan]

Judging by the plump look of those pigeons I would take that as meaning the bulk of this winter so far has not been cold

Around here - Watford - it hasn't - we've been in + territory for quite a bit during the last week, garden pond finally condescended to freeze over last night but now temps are up to a scorching 1.4C - still snowing though

[IDO]

Going by the BBC Week ahead Weather forecast, they seem to think the cold is going to win.. I hope they are right ! Even on there Friday graphics the Midlands are still stuck around freezing all day, im expecting the GFS to change it's tune out in FI.

Yes the south may hold on till late next weekend but then a return to less cold for 10 days +

Source: http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Just had a look at the strat forum page and it looks like the block will not favour us in the short-medium term despite the propagation from the strat to the trop from the SSW. It is possible we will still have 2-3 weeks of a favourable trop from mid Feb so we may still benefit from the major impact of the SSW.

Would have had two cold wintry weeks by then, which is rare for my area, so the strat warming has certainly been excellent IMBY (still snowing here, >5 hours). See what the next shot sends our way.

Edited January 20, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[smhouston]

Trouble is though Fred none of the models indicate a GH or indeed a Arctic HP to influence our weather in the near future. Our best hope of a continuation of the cold spell is to see continued energy going SE. At the moment this doesn't seem likely and a return to mild is the most likely outlook, at the moment!

What I am certain of though is any form of cold weather is more likely from the east. A N,ly via a Greenland HP is extremely unlikely.

Are these the same models that have struggled extremely bad (some of the worse model agreement we've had at T72 and even below) in this current cold spell? How can you put so much faith in them so far out

[Cloud 10]

Judging by the plump look of those pigeons I would take that as meaning the bulk of this winter so far has not been cold

Not to be pedantic,but they are Collared Doves.

[Methuselah]

Some womans G-string isn't it

No, you fool, it's about pigeons (I mean collared doves)!

[dbaloo]

No, you fool, it's about pigeons (I mean collared doves)!

doves,pigeons.......it all sounds like this cold weather is driving us all cuckoo!

[weather eater]

Around here - Watford - it hasn't - we've been in + territory for quite a bit during the last week, garden pond finally condescended to freeze over last night but now temps are up to a scorching 1.4C - still snowing though

Now it’s my turn to be pedantic, I did say the bulk of winter so far Mike, up until a few days ago it’s been pretty mild, it has snowed here as well, some on every one of the last four days, about 2cms in total, that’s pretty poor, another reason why I miss my native Norfolk. Still looking at the radar we may have a bit more to come in the next couple of hours.

doves,pigeons.......it all sounds like this cold weather is driving us all cuckoo!

I'm suffering from snow depravation.

[Frosty.]

It looks like the coldest uppers (T850 hPa) will become more restricted to the far northeast of the uk early in the week, becoming a little less cold aloft further south but 2m temps still around freezing or a fraction above but then it looks colder (sub zero) from midweek until the weekend, a lot of snow and easterly gales for the ne corner of the uk in the next three days, east and ne scotland could have blizzards and drifting in gale force Ely winds, only slowly subsiding during wednesday, most of the uk becoming drier but still with some snow flurries and severe frosts. Next weekend indicates the breakdown but timings and extent of breakdown are still unclear, should have a clearer picture by tomorrow.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Frosty039

[Froze were the Days]

Are these the same models that have struggled extremely bad (some of the worse model agreement we've had at T72 and even below) in this current cold spell? How can you put so much faith in them so far out

All the models - GFS,ECM,UKMO none have suggested strong heights towards Greenland, we've only seen it occasionally in FI on some runs on the GFS/ECM which have never come to fruition.

[Carlrg]

That looks like a substantial snow event for Monday.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=20&ech=24&mode=2&carte=0

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Trouble is though Fred none of the models indicate a GH or indeed a Arctic HP to influence our weather in the near future. Our best hope of a continuation of the cold spell is to see continued energy going SE. At the moment this doesn't seem likely and a return to mild is the most likely outlook, at the moment!

What I am certain of though is any form of cold weather is more likely from the east. A N,ly via a Greenland HP is extremely unlikely.

Indeed Dave but the fax shows increased influence from the HP extending down from arctic region. Its not Scandi HP or extension from south its an extension of HP from the arctic region thus its increased 'influence' is there on that Fax chart. Full blown HP to our north, NW or NE is down the line IMO....lets see what the models show come Wed or Thurs in their outlook...I suspect it won't be GFS FI. I am not thinking northerly at all either.

BFTP

Edited January 20, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Panayiotis]

Noticeably at the start of the run the heights to the north seems stronger.

That looks like a substantial snow event for Monday.

http://www.meteociel...&mode=2&carte=0

Ha for your area!

Edited January 20, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Paul T]

NAEFS also shows a full on assault from the Atlantic at 168hrs, with absolutely no blocking to out North or East, the atlantic can just stroll in. Criminal!

I have been following this model quite a bit, and this is by far the worse it has looked for a couple of weeks.

[Panayiotis]

NAEFS also shows a full on assault from the Atlantic at 168hrs, with absolutely no blocking to out North or East, the atlantic can just stroll in. Criminal!

I have been following this model quite a bit, and this is by far the worse it has looked for a couple of weeks.

Yes but behind it shows high pressure building northwards, with no height rises to the south and in Europe that chart doesnt seem as bad as you think. Edited January 20, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Troubleatmill]

four members of the 06z ensembles go fofor a continuation of the cold, will be interesting to see if this increases on the 12z regardless of the operational

, sorry i cant post image from my table.

Edited January 20, 2013 by Nick JB

[Panayiotis]

Again heights to the north are stronger on this run, small changes we would want to see, if we want the cold to stay with upcoming low seems to go for the undercut, there should be another snow event on this run.

[cowdog]

Hmm GFS is strengthining the Scandinavian high at 84hr's

And also UKMO seems to be doing something similar at 72 hrs, but it vanishes by 96 hrs.

The models sensing the high isn't done yet?

Edited January 20, 2013 by cowdog