Far North of England Regional Discussion - January 21st 2013, 06z onwards

[Isolated Frost]

So many people getting surprised by this system! It was forecast on the hi-res EC last night as a trough moving NW'wards in the evening, and low and behold the EC has it right, yet again... just like the snow predictions.

It's a top notch model, I'd say from my 2 months experiences from it, that it's the most precise/accurate I've witnessed, better results than NMM and NAE easily.

[Snowmaggedon]

Sometimes behind the main system, a linear feature of convective activity (heavy showers) can occur. Being convective they can appear and dissipate fairly rapidly. The 'oh dear' is because we have enough snow thank you.

Haha, we need some snow down here! Only a slight covering at the moment, hopefully it will increase as the night goes on

[paul tall]

If you look at the radar our streamer starts off in the ipswich area and meanders its way up here as far as i can read it to directly hit our region it dosent look as heavy as todays snow but should provide a few more hours of reasonable stuff and may give boro a covering (hopefully)

The streamer is already almost north of Boro.

[NickR]

Jealous Nick!

4" (11cms) here - same as this morning so the snowfall/sleet has been equalled by the thaw/melt.

There are 3" of snow on my windscreen which was clear last night, which shows that I've lost about 1.5" to melt today elsewhere.

Still, a bit of a "could have been" if temps had been a TINY bit lower... but the blowing blizzard like conditions today were like nothing I've seen in the 6 years I've lived in the NE.

[Continental Climate]

According to the radar we should have snow around 20:15 we shall see..............

We may get the dregs but boro will deffo do better than us being slightly east but looking again at the radar durham city could be the place to be

[NickR]

We may get the dregs but boro will deffo do better than us being slightly east but looking again at the radar durham city could be the place to be

I'll let you know! Problem here is not so much will it hit (we seem to be in line AT THE MOMENT), but what will it be? To be frank, I'm fed up with graupel. We've had about 40/60 graupel and flakes today, but we're in a graupel phase right now.

[Isolated Frost]

Hi-res EC going for

and that's for Washington, so basically everywhere apart from the coastal fringes should see all snow from this upcoming 'line'.

Some convective showers/frontal residue tomorrow morning as well, falling as snow for most, rain near the coast (all snow for Durham, some late rain for Washington), should add an inch or two.

4" here still, which isn't too bad... the totals out west still have me in awe!!

[NickR]

Colder now at least: 0.1°C / -0.4°C

[snowmaddave]

Well we have had an extra cm or two over the last couple of hours, stopped now seems to be thinning out the cloud here and the temperature is dropping but everywhere is white over, just how we like it.

Smowmeggedon is it still coming down near you?

[Continental Climate]

hexham and environs could also be in line for a good few hours of extra dumpage

[NickR]

My melt estimate is supported by rain gauge which has recorded 4.5mm of "rain"; so almost 2" of melt.

[paul tall]

Hi-res EC going for

and that's for Washington, so basically everywhere apart from the coastal fringes should see all snow from this upcoming 'line'.

Some convective showers/frontal residue tomorrow morning as well, falling as snow for most, rain near the coast (all snow for Durham, some late rain for Washington), should add an inch or two.

4" here still, which isn't too bad... the totals out west still have me in awe!!

It's already north of me.

[NickR]

we have flakes!! small... but flakes!

[Snowmaggedon]

Well we have had an extra cm or two over the last couple of hours, stopped now seems to be thinning out the cloud here and the temperature is dropping but everywhere is white over, just how we like it.

Smowmeggedon is it still coming down near you?

Yes but very light, we need this streamer to deliver

[snowmaddave]

Are we due one like? Hope your right, ill let you know if it starts here, seems to be quieting down now, fingers crossed!

[Deep Snow please]

Sometimes behind the main system, a linear feature of convective activity (heavy showers) can occur. Being convective they can appear and dissipate fairly rapidly. The 'oh dear' is because we have enough snow thank you.

You might, I don't and this is looking less marginal, so hopefully it'll give us a good amount of snow nearer the coast..

[recklessabandon]

You might, I don't and this is looking less marginal, so hopefully it'll give us a good amount of snow nearer the coast..

To be fair, id like to see the entire region wake up white, crispy and powdery.

[Snowmaggedon]

Are we due one like? Hope your right, ill let you know if it starts here, seems to be quieting down now, fingers crossed!

Yep, Continental Climate said if it's snowing in Boro now it means that the streamer has hit and it will snow for a good period and it SHOULD intensify!

[Deep Snow please]

To be fair, id like to see the entire region wake up white, crispy and powdery.

Then you'll probably have to cope with being snowed in tomorrow.

[Isolated Frost]

Heavy wet snow... not quite sleet, but VERY wet snowflakes! Not bad though

[Continental Climate]

It's already north of me.

As i said it would be mate we in darlo and aycliffe will do rubbish from this in the wrong place as per usual, further east and north will do best

[recklessabandon]

Then you'll probably have to cope with being snowed in tomorrow.

I already have that problem, in the scheme of things an extra 5 cm isn't going to affect how much digging ill be doing lol.

[NickR]

I actually think it'll end up heaviest around Chester-le-street... I think it's just heading north of Durham City TBH.

Are there good chances of showers tomorrow? I heard ESE being mentioned, which, as we now know, = buggar all for here.

Edited January 21, 2013 by NickR

[paul tall]

As i said it would be mate we in darlo and aycliffe will do rubbish from this in the wrong place as per usual, further east and north will do best

Darlo and Aycliffe are in the rain shadow of the N Yorks Moors on a SE track, streamers fire in a few miles north of Aycliffe, always. Usual southern boundary of the heavier precipitation is halfway between Aycliffe and Durham, say Chilton/Ferryhill.

[Isolated Frost]

I actually think it'll end up heaviest around Chester-le-street... I think it's just heading north of Durham City TBH.

Are there good chances of showers tomorrow? I hear

d ESE being mentioned, which, as we now know, = buggar all for here.

ESE is not bad at all for you, SE is very bad. We're in the process of changing the upper winds from SE to ESE, and that should turn weaker and more E/ENE as the day advances. Cold uppers and favourable shear/vorticity- but it's very much a radar&lamp-post event, again!