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Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 22nd 2013 14:00hrs>

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
in Regional

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Dexter29 Newbie

Dexter29

Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex
Posted

But imagine watching it falling drinks.gif Live for the moment and enjoy it.

That's how I view it to, couldn't care less if it all melts.

It will just be a nice way to end the cold spell.

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

GFS is never right, I have tried and tested it many times!

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Gary_R_Walker Newbie

Gary_R_Walker

Posted
  • Location: North Lowestoft
  • Location: North Lowestoft
Posted

That's how I view it to, couldn't care less if it all melts.

It will just be a nice way to end the cold spell.

Your rain won't melt Dexter it will just run into the drain. My 2 foot of snow will melt, slowly.

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted (edited)

GFS is never right, I have tried and tested it many times!

GFS (and consequently NMM as its fed from the same data) always overdoes dew points. It doesn't necessarily do badly with precip placement, but I find it consistently 1-2c too warm on dew points in these situations

Best blend I've found so far from the two high res models we have available to us (NMM and NAE) is take NMM precip placement, and overlay NAE dew points.

The other complication here is that the NAE has developed a shallow surface feature just to the east of London for the last 2 runs...it's a feature that the likes of GFS/UKMO GM are likely too low res to pick up on.

I havnt had a chance to look at ECM precip projection, but NAE has shown similar for the last 2 runs now. Modelled fresh snowfall projections range from 5-14cm S to N at the moment

Modelled fresh snow accumulations (cm) from 6am Friday to 12pm Saturday. Full details: http://t.co/j3XnLinh | pic.twitter.com/2NIK3txJ

— Weatherquest (@weatherquest_uk)

January 24, 2013

SK

Edited by snowking
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Dexter29 Newbie

Dexter29

Posted
  • Location: Epping, Essex
  • Location: Epping, Essex
Posted

GFS (and consequently NMM as its fed from the same data) always overdoes dew points. It doesn't necessarily do badly with precip placement, but I find it consistently 1-2c too warm on dew points in these situations

Best blend I've found so far from the two high res models we have available to us (NMM and NAE) is take NMM precip placement, and overlay NAE dew points.

The other complication here is that the NAE has developed a shallow surface feature just to the east of London for the last 2 runs...it's a feature that the likes of GFS/UKMO GM are likely too low res to pick up on.

I havnt had a chance to look at ECM precip projection, but NAE has shown similar for the last 2 runs now. Modelled fresh snowfall projections range from 5-14cm S to N at the moment

Modelled fresh snow accumulations (cm) from 6am Friday to 12pm Saturday. Full details: http://t.co/j3XnLinh | pic.twitter.com/2NIK3txJ

— Weatherquest (@weatherquest_uk)

January 24, 2013

SK

Nice. 5-8cm for me there!

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Grinzzz Newbie

Grinzzz

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes (ish) 140m ASL
  • Location: Milton Keynes (ish) 140m ASL
Posted

It better not upset the trains tonight! Looks to be coming in a little faster than shown on this mornings forecasts; into Carlisle now

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

Hmmm here one minute (sorry hour), gone the next!

24_20.gif

30_20.gif

GFS is never right, I have tried and tested it many times!

I think an organisation with that alleged record would give up then wouldn't they? acute.gif

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Normally I never get excited at these snow to rain events but this could be different. At the moment we could well have quiet a few hrs of heavy snowfalling especially the further N you are in this region. Although a thaw will occur tomorrow it isn't until Sun before the much milder temps arrive.

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Ben_Cambs Explorer

Ben_Cambs

Posted
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
  • Location: South East Cambridgeshire 57m ASL
Posted (edited)

A cold night here, my own WS recorded below -5C. RAF Lakenheath down to -8C. Hopefully one last snowfall tonight which will end a good cold spell IMO.

Edited by Ben_Cambs
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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted (edited)

Morning all. smile.png

About -3C at work. There has obviously been freezing fog here in the night too, due to obvious rime, although the fog has cleared.

There was a good one this morning, on the drive in, where some fool in front of me decided to drive through a very large puddle, rather than round the side of it (which he could easily have done) He then skidded off the road, due to hitting the sheet ice that was on the other side of the puddle. This ice undoubtedly there, for the most part, because of previous fools who had also driven through the same large puddle unnecessarily.doh.gif Luckily for the chap this morning, he wasn't going fast and the run off wasn't into anything that would have seriously damaged his car. I wouldn't mind betting that someone has since crashed there though.

Edited by Steve C
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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

Mornin each. Very frosty in Ippy this morning. Still little patches of snow about and our snow dude ( in two halves)

Back to Naaaaaaarich later so wonder what the outlook for that area is like.

Have a good POETS day all. :D And take care on icy roads.

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azores92 Apprentice

azores92

Posted
  • Location: Stourbridge
  • Location: Stourbridge
Posted

supposed to be getting a train at 7.20pm from birmingham to norwich, really unsure whether to risk it tonight. im tempted to say no, but i could lose 30 quid because the 'trains may still be running'

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Keraunic Seasoned

Keraunic

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder Storms. All extreme weather.
  • Location: Ipswich. (Originally from York)
Posted

The 06z run has nowt or very little for EA. Is that reliable do you reckon?

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted

Little doubt that the Atlantic now has the ascendancy. As such, expect snow forecasts to move east and north of current projections, then reverse of what happens when the East is in charge

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Does anyone know what the NMM is suggesting. I have found in these situations the NAE is OTT with snow and the GFS the least interested. The NMM on the other hand tends to be more accurate.

Case on radar watching today and looking at reports further W. Im 100% convinced we shall see snow but whats questionable is when the transition to rain will occur?

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

NAE 06z still showing snow and lots of precipitation....

I see what you mean.

Does anyone know what the NMM is suggesting. I have found in these situations the NAE is OTT with snow and the GFS the least interested. The NMM on the other hand tends to be more accurate.

Case on radar watching today and looking at reports further W. Im 100% convinced we shall see snow but whats questionable is when the transition to rain will occur?

I'll post something when it updates. I agree with you re NAE. It looks way OTT to me.

post-11059-0-87944600-1359110266_thumb.g

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Steve C Accomplished

Steve C

Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
Posted

And it's updated... Midnight tonight.

post-11059-0-98622800-1359110487_thumb.p

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

Remember NAE doesnt have a sleet setting so what you see as snow could be sleet in eventuality

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