Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think this might one another one of those occasions where the Models have duped some people with the slightest 'faux' potential (myself included) but no matter there's still plenty of time to go yet

Remember phase 1 of next cold spell I spoke of between 3rd-7th Feb...

We have this now showing on the 6th, as it was 2 days ago at 300+ hrs

Oh look....let'splay a game of spot the PV....

All still in FI but is firmly in the direction where I think we are headed.

Edited January 26, 2013 by CreweCold

[Snowman.]

A few modifications and that would be a amazing chart

Energy SW of Greenland is a little scruffy.

Also as ever the hardest part of a northerly to give snow to the south is getting -8 uppers in...

Edited January 26, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Not a bad run from the GFS 12z as from around day 10 we see a northerly develop before hights build towards Greenland (If i've read the charts right) We finish with this which screams potential if you ask me (huge pinch of salt needed I know).

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.png

Edited January 26, 2013 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[Snowman.]

Yet again FI is a beauty gets rid of the energy in SW Greenland ejects it southwards towards the UK and into europe.

The NH pattern is amazing.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not a bad run from the GFS 12z as from around day 10 we see a northerly develop before hights build towards Greenland (If i've read the charts right) We finish with this which screams potential if you ask me.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3841.png

It sure is a great chart and no feasible way back to mild from there. The PV has been dealt the killer blow and northern blocking rules galore.

[ScottSnow]

Yes the GFS is starting to throw a few colder ideas into the mix now in FI. I wouldn't be suprised to see colder scenarios start to appear at closer timeframes as we head towards feb.

[snowblues]

Hopefully there will be a pattern change again in the near future,looking at the N/H at the end of them gfs frames.The norm most of the time is to bottle everything up a around Greenland.Must be picking up a good trend,even from T240 you can see theP/V starting to pull a part.Something to keep an eye on.

Edited January 26, 2013 by snowblues

[Jason M]

The meto 144 chart is worth a little look. Not a big fan of the METO at this range personally as I don't think it performs that well. At 120 I'd take METO over GFS. Not so at 144 though.

Still, I've seen worse :-)

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

A slight relaxation of heights over Iberia and we would be in business here.

Jason

[Cumulonimbus Tower]

METO 144 looking full of Northern Promise too. Well maybe not exactly Northern but i like the look of it non the less....

[Snowman.]

UKMO looking amazing TEITS said wouldn't be surprised if something turned up in the T144 range.

Even though he was so negative the other day along with everyone else on the Thread.

[Jaffusmaximus]

Both North Amercian Models are playing off the same hymn sheet. Must bode well as the Western PV is In Their Back Yard.

GEM

GFS

And to follow suit the UKMO minus the low digging in further south over Britain and Ireland.

[Weathizard]

Pressure over iberia still looks a concern to me in the long run, some very strange patterns being thrown around though the sign of a pattern shift? Possible.

[Mucka]

Second week of Feb could turn cold with the possibility of a Greenland block. Until then, mild at times to start but normal temps there after with perhaps some wintriness over high ground in the North, becoming cooler toward the end of the period as cold zonality sets in before hopefully Atlantic ridging and the next cold spell.

[damianslaw]

Models continue to suggest increased amplification in the atlantic flow as we move through next week enabling greater height rises in the mid atlantic and therefore colder polar maritime shots in time. They also indicate a more southerly tracking jet as we move through February, it all bodes well for further cold weather probably setting in sometime during the second week of February.

Back to the next few days apart from Tuesday it hardly looks particularly mild, average at best becoming quite chilly in the north by the end of the week with return of frosts and wintry showers.

[Summer Sun]

Ian Fergusson tweeted this 40 minutes ago

DJPVilla tweeted:

What are your thoughts re another cold spell?"

Ian Fergusson replied

No real sign. Cyclonic W'rly expected thro nxt 6-15d. A bit colder in later trend.

UKMO also notes downward trend towards end of 10-15d period but no suggestion of any major step-change within that range.

Edited January 26, 2013 by reef
Quoted post removed

[chris55]

If you want to see what the longer range models are hinting at, as opposed to one persons thoughts, take a look at the EC 32 ensembles in the strat thread.

[cooling climate]

He's just looking for a reaction best ignore.

Much more amplified pattern past t200 but I am beginning to wonder if there is two

much energy going west to east in the t144 -200 time frame. If this is the case we

could see a much more amplified and colder pattern setting in sooner rather than

later.

Very encouraged to see the second phase of the SSW and much more amplified

pattern really starting to show its hand now in the op run and three quaters of the

ensembels.

Edited January 26, 2013 by reef
Quoted post removed

[alexisj9]

To me it does not really matter if the moddles are showing any chance of cold. It may just suddenly turn up from about three days out just like this latest one, I just watch and see what turns up, My interest at the moment is what the big low is going to do.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEFS continue to trend colder

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=281&ext=1&y=36&run=12&runpara=0

Funny how you always dismiss the idea of potential colder weather Happy Days. I remember you dismissed the cold spell just gone when it started showing. Let's hope history repeats itself this time eh.

[cheeky_monkey]

i would be concerned if i were you with what is and has been happening across the pacific and N America...the pattern has become locked into a rinse and repeat cycle that statred to set up about 4 weeks ago...and is having a knock on effect acroos the atlantic hence the shift to a more mobile pattern.

there is no hint of a pattern change over here...no hint of the Alaskan high which can aid height rises around Greenland etc the pv is locked in over eastern Canada and western Greenland and is going no where..thers is a big high pressure cell of the Vancouver and western US coast which is again not moving and underpinning the whole set up across N America.

Edited January 26, 2013 by cheeky_monkey

[bradymk]

Quite a cool set of GFS 12z ensembles, mean continuing to drop each run. I think it will be a gradual cooldown to cold rather than a major change to cold. We will see.

[Cheshire Freeze]

i would be concerned if i were you with what is and has been happening across the pacific and N America...the pattern has become locked into a rinse and repeat cycle that statred to set up about 4 weeks ago...and is having a knock on effect acroos the atlantic hence the shift to a more mobile pattern.

there is no hint of a pattern change over here...no hint of the Alaskan high which can aid height rises around Greenland etc the pv is locked in over eastern Canada and western Greenland and is going no where..thers is a big high pressure cell of the Vancouver and western US coast which is again not moving and underpinning the whole set up across N America.

The set up at the minute is as such that there doesn't need to be a major pattern change over the states for us to acheive cold. You say the pattern has been rinse and repeat for 4 weeks over there but for 2 of those weeks we've experienced an exceptionally snowy spell of weather.

The status quo could be maintained over that side of the pond and we could still feasibly see height rises to our north with only a slight weakening and movement west of that canadian vortex.

[Summer Sun]

ECM out to t120 now and it remains unsettled and windy with Gales or maybe even severe Gales at times next week in exposed parts

[chris55]

Well the GEFS are hardly "Mildmageddon" are they! Overall trending colder again after the two milder blips this coming week. Not a bad set as we enter what is often the most blocked month of winter.

[chris55]

EC 144 interesting, Iceland "wedge" in place. I did think we may have to wait until maybe Feb 7th or around there for the next shot at cold but maybe not. Depends on whether we can see any shortwaves off the mother Low heading south east!

Edited January 26, 2013 by chris55