Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM is looking very interesting now. I urge folk to have a look at the chart archives and see how Feb 1986 developed, something I've had in mind with the descending winter. I believe if/when the next cold spell comes we need to look initially NE and not NW. That is where our COLD HP will develop from due to retrogade motion, GHP prob later down the line as the retrograde continues. I'm not surprised the models are showing something interesting as we are getting into the range of when the next proposed cold spell is developing or in place, hence why I suggested it over last day or so.

Just to add a little interest.....much milder temps for many tomorrow.....and tomorrow is 27th. This is exchange I received from RJS on the PM.

Take from it what you want...

BFTP

I guess you and Roger are of the same thinking then Fred? I do agree, there looks to be a shed load of potential going forward. All conjecture for now though. At least we have something to monitor again!

Edited January 26, 2013 by CreweCold

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I guess you and Roger are of the same thinking then Fred? I do agree, there looks to be a shed load of potential going forward. All conjecture for now though. At least we have something to monitor again!

Yes, and in our discussions I found it quite stark that Roger remained firm, the fact that the 'warm up' is BANG ON CUE is no guess, is not Roger getting 'lucky' and is in a way it would seem necessary in terms of his LRF panning out and remaining on course. Funnily enough end of January and particularly February, although the furthest month in terms of setting out a LRF, contained the strongest signal in his research model. I am very optimistic and I'll post an indepth outlook of what I see as key developments later in the week.

BFTP

[nick sussex]

Growing support in the ECM postage stamps for pressure to fall in central Europe with the Azores high displaced further west at 168hrs.

Also for good measure a couple of snow events thrown into the mix with trough disruption to the west.

Quite a few have that Icelandic wedge of high pressure so certainly things look to be on the up in terms of colder potential but still too far out to celebrate just yet.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

[UV-RAY]

CFS continues its trend very similar to EC32. Atlantic completely blocked off. Anomalous heights right across our north and spreading down into the north Atlantic. Low pressure over the continent. Very wintry if it's anywhere close to the mark.

Images courtesy of Meteociel

Temperature anomalies (850's)

Those charts have reignited my interest in winter CC, heights over Greenland and Scandinavia. RJS LRF is leading the pack IMO.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes, and in our discussions I found it quite stark that Roger remained firm, the fact that the 'warm up' is BANG ON CUE is no guess, is not Roger getting 'lucky' and is in a way it would seem necessary in terms of his LRF panning out and remaining on course. Funnily enough end of January and particularly February, although the furthest month in terms of setting out a LRF, contained the strongest signal in his research model. I am very optimistic and I'll post an indepth outlook of what I see as key developments later in the week.

BFTP

It's funny that whilst I was keeping a steady eye on winter trends on the long range models back in October and November, the CFS was consistently churning up February being the most severe month. It then lost interest in this idea before seemingly coming back on board with it. March was also consistently shown as cold.

[bradymk]

EC Ensemble mean shows good support for the op right up to 240. I feel everything has developed well today regarding another potential cold spell beginning of February. As BA said this morning, "something is afoot"

It's funny that whilst I was keeping a steady eye on winter trends on the long range models back in October and November, the CFS was consistently churning up February being the most severe month. It then lost interest in this idea before seemingly coming back on board with it. March was also consistently shown as cold.

The monthly Z700 anomaly updated daily has been consistent also in regards to February being a colder than average month with higher heights to our north. This is the latest below.

http://www.cpc.ncep....0126.201302.gif

Edited January 26, 2013 by bradythemole

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Growing support in the ECM postage stamps for pressure to fall in central Europe with the Azores high displaced further west at 168hrs.

Also for good measure a couple of snow events thrown into the mix with trough disruption to the west.

Quite a few have that Icelandic wedge of high pressure so certainly things look to be on the up in terms of colder potential but still too far out to celebrate just yet.

http://www.ecmwf.int...t!2009112700!!/

Indeed Nick, but certainly something is stirring. So as we did at end of Dec beginning of Jan when there was no sign of the cold to come, when the models then started to show inkling, we then saw a steady upturn. A good step forward today, Let's see if we get the same as next week progresses. I anticipate we will but only time will tell.

BFTP

Edited January 26, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cheshire Freeze]

The monthly Z700 anomaly updated daily has been consistent also in regards to February being a colder than average month with higher heights to our north. This is the latest below.

http://www.cpc.ncep....0126.201302.gif

Yep, seems to be a rather 'locked in' anomaly now.

The greatest uncertainty in the anomaly charts now seems to be where the lower heights are placed to our south; ranging from our SW to our SE

Edited January 26, 2013 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

Certainly a trend from the ECM ensemble run for a return to something cooler not the freezer but certainly average or just below

Incidentally its looking much warmer in Spain this year for the start of the F1 pre season testing which starts on Tuesday I recall last year Spain was rather cold

Edited January 26, 2013 by Gavin.

[Earth Wind and Snow]

The ECM is looking very interesting now. I urge folk to have a look at the chart archives and see how Feb 1986 developed, something I've had in mind with the descending winter. I believe if/when the next cold spell comes we need to look initially NE and not NW. That is where our COLD HP will develop from due to retrogade motion, GHP prob later down the line as the retrograde continues. I'm not surprised the models are showing something interesting as we are getting into the range of when the next proposed cold spell is developing or in place, hence why I suggested it over last day or so.

Just to add a little interest.....much milder temps for many tomorrow.....and tomorrow is 27th. This is exchange I received from RJS on the PM....note ALL dates

Take from it what you want...

BFTP

Considering that is dated 7th Jan before the first cold spell even got going, then the RJS forecast has been incredibly accurate so far. With models now beginning to pick up the scent of another cold spell in early February then it looks like Roger could be bang on the money

Very impressed - lets see if early Feb can indeed product the goods as per his LRF

EWS

[bradymk]

Yep, seems to be a rather 'locked in' anomaly now.

The greatest uncertainty in the anomaly charts now seems to be where the lower heights are placed to our south; ranging from our SW to our SE

Yes its been the dominant anomaly for February from CFS, JMA and Korean long range and from EC 32. Dare i say it, it doesn't feel right saying this as i often slate it but i feel the CFS has performed pretty well this winter so far. Just want to mention something aswell, the last week is why you have to love the weather in the UK. The variability is insane for our island, i have had snow, rain, sun, hail, frost, freezing fog, sleet, floods and now thunder and lightning all in a week, love it. Cold constantly would become pretty boring as much as I love it. Without the variability we have in our winters, i doubt many on here would have the same passion for cold weather. Also, regarding RJS , he has done very well so far this winter and if he nails it with February also, I will have huge respect for his LRF method. Edited January 26, 2013 by bradythemole

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yes its been the dominant anomaly for February. Dare i say it, it doesn't feel right saying this as i often slate it but i feel the CFS has performed pretty well this winter so far. Just want to mention something aswell, the last week is why you have to love the weather in the UK. The variability is insane for our island, i have had snow, rain, sun, hail, frost, freezing fog, sleet, floods and now thunder and lightning all in a week, love it. Cold constantly would become pretty boring as much as I love it. Without the variability we have in our winters, i doubt many on here would have the same passion for cold weather. Also, regarding RJS , he has done very well so far this winter and if he nails it with February also, I will have huge respect for his LRF method.

The CFS performed particularly well picking out the extremely wet summer we experienced last year as early as late February/early March. Really was very well modelled early on by the CFS.

[bradymk]

ECM 15 day ENS for De Bilt show the cooling trend increase again with the mean continuing to drop towards the end of the forecast period with less and less milder members.

[shotski]

The CFS performed particularly well picking out the extremely wet summer we experienced last year as early as late February/early March. Really was very well modelled early on by the CFS.

Hi crewe

As you say decent ensemble runs now showing blocking to our north come start of Feb, I would favour northeast over any greenland heights

at the moment.

Where can i view RJS's Forecast please.

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM 15 day ENS for De Bilt show the cooling trend increase again with the mean continuing to drop towards the end of the forecast period with less and less milder members.

Good set of ensembles there IMO

[Snowman.]

Not long to go until the 18z run last nights was pretty decent IMO

[phil nw.]

Growing trends for a colder pattern after next week is showing in more of the ECM/GFS Op.runs now.

Week 2 looks to be the where the real changes start to occur as the Canadian vortex weakens and retreats enabling the Atlantic high to ridge further north.Low pressure developing into Scandinavia and Europe with the jet tilting NW-SE bringing more polar air into the UK.

We can see on the GFS ens the 2mtr and upper temps falling again

http://nwstatic.co.u...5d7f5ac025dc3fd

http://nwstatic.co.u...5d7f5ac025dc3fd

The means 500hPa for T240hrs are quite encouraging bearing in mind the smoothing out we get with these charts.

So the Atlantic looks like having a few days in charge then as the energy weakens we start to see temperatures falling off.

Signs in later frames of the GFS runs today of further shredding of the vortex so encouragement that we may see heights further north in time but after looking at the 12z NAEFs i wouldn`t say more than that at this stage.

[Methuselah]

It looks to me, as if things are progressing - at least from a scientific perspective, anyway - broadly in line with the SSW-based expectations: PV-disruption leading to atypical Jet Stream meanders?

Cold to re-assert itself? Seem like a good bet...Now for the models!

[StretfordEnd1996]

Anyone talking about cold not being able to pull through (post next weekend) I'm sure will be quickly having second thoughts now after the charts today; all those people are doing at the moment is picking up the tiny bits and pieces they can find and telling us that because of this, a cold spell is never going to happen.

Some decent charts tonight, people are also saying 'the charts don't put us in the freezer, but they are below average' ... well let's not forget they don't even get to mid February yet.

It's half time and the scoreline is 1-0 ... it is definitely not over yet but those wishing for a cold spell like me are in a fantastic position, and the support from the fans on the terrace is massive.

Edited January 26, 2013 by SnowySouthPennines

[Ice Day]

Early days, but heights going up towards Greenland at 108 (and a small improvement against 12z)

[Snowman.]

Quite here.

That low is much further south digging into that High pressure with a more WAA into greenland too.

EDIT:

The low on the seaboard is some miles further north and lower this might not help.

Edited January 26, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Continental Climate]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1081.png Interesting 108 on gfs!! Looks like we may get some WAA into greenie all we need now is for pressure to drop over europe and this could develop into something good. Anyway all very tentative at the moment

[Cheshire Freeze]

The low on the seaboard is some miles further north and lower this might not help.

au contraire, a deeper low further up the west coast of Greenland can be much better for WAA

[bluearmy]

Splendid 12z suites and the naefs tops it all off. Note the ecm extended ens now actually cold at the end of week 2. This is in contrast with the just ended cold period which the ecm ens didnt pick up until around 7/10 days away max. More evidence that the recent spell was strat induced.

the models look to be firmng up on the route to cold and it may well be that we see 'coldish' set in as soon as next weekend though the real deal looks as though it will be after the 7th feb. watch the possibilities of a diving trough from the ne around the 8th on future ops. The ecm op approaching day 10 seems to show the scandi trough beginning to drift towards us. It doesnt make it but if the ridge to our westretrogresses far enough, it might do. Initially, the atlantic ridge may be a bit close to us and the first really cold push may head to our east. Dont panic!

[Panayiotis]

Going for the undercut at 138hrs...