Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.

[Methuselah]

IM sorry was just replying if that was aimed at me. I cannot comment to much on models as I am still learning sorry again

Wasn't aimed specifically at you mate...It's just that the thread has a habit of wandering off-topic...

[ChartViewer]

Wasn't aimed specifically at you mate...It's just that the thread has a habit of wandering off-topic...

Pardon mate ....Leading the way as usual

[virtualsphere]

Quite an unusual FAX for T+120, not just the strength of the atlantic low, which is impressive in itself, but also the only strong low on the chart! Zonal... but not as we know it!

So where do we go from here? GFS 12Z has the low spinning in situ for a while, without filling much, which means a few windy days especially for western areas.

ECM agrees on a dartboard low:

The UKMO keeps the deep low too, but brings the centre a little closer to the UK meaning a potentially windy spell for all on Sunday - Monday if this comes close to verification:

Quite a change within a week. GFS ensembles suggesting a pressure rise after the low passes through although a lot of spread indicating uncertainty. The spread for 27th - 29th probably suggestive that GFS hasn't got to grips with the depth / track of the low yet either:

Hold onto your hats this weekend! We've had a lot of rain over the last year but it feels like it's been a while since we had a notable windy spell of weather.

[Timmytour]

Stand by your beds! 18z set to roll out and the beginning of a journey that's set to take us into another February 1986

I've just been rereading the thread before that ECM thread! Epic stuff from the models that even the Met Office were tuned into that never came off. But all the great cold spells of our time have such false alarms beforehand. However...even though we've already had what I would consider to be an event good enough to ensure a winter is remembered for being a winter, I'm jumping on the "there's better coming" bandwagon. And i fervently believe that the good old pub run is always the main trendsetter for these occasions

[bluearmy]

dutch ens cooling off towards the end of week 2. not unexpected. hopefully a bit slow on the uptake aswell !

[Timmytour]

When you run the 18z step by step from T27 to T51.... you could be forgiven for thinking you are actually going backwards in time when you look at the progress of the Low south of Greenland

[damianslaw]

A marked change to very wet and windy conditions this weekend, all models are suggesting a very deep low pressure indeed, expect gales or severe gales in the NW with very heavy rain meaning flooding most likely. Whilst we've had alot of rain so far this winter mainly in December, we have yet to experience a stormy spell of weather - late January is often a very stormy period of the year before the atlantic traditionally goes into much quieter affair during February.

I'm expecting weather warnings for Sunday in NW parts but this time for heavy rain and gales/severe gales.

This winter is certainly offering a bit of everything, we just now need a greenland high and potent arctic northerlies and polar lows - lets hope this sudden atlantic onslaught is a short sharp affair.

[Matty M]

What a monster storm, utterly incredible near 50mb pressure drop in 12 hours.

[Barking_Mad]

So lots of rain and wind on top of lots of melting snow. Flooding seems an obvious risk.

[Jason M]

On this run the SE isn't far away from a pretty major snowstorm. It wouldn't take much at days four and five to really upgrade things big time in the SE.

Look at the precip and theta values and a little tweak here and there ..........

Jason

[Panayiotis]

Been over the regional thread lately so havent been posting, however if the low can undercut at 132hrs, it would be nice! But its miles better than the flat 12z!

Nope it doesnt but wouldnt take it much to do so IMO.

Edited January 22, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Jason M]

I quite like this run, as the trough shows more inclination to dig south. If this trend carries on in the morning the weekend might might prove interesting.

Jason

[pages]

Massive changes at t132 this not a done deal for mild.

[pdiddy]

Perhaps that perky LP in the med can head our way...

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

High pressure building to our northeast at t144 , building well and holding resistance , weather this will lead to something who knows.

[pdiddy]

Perhaps that perky LP in the med can head our way...

Nope, but low not tracking East as far this run.

[fourseasons]

This block is showing more resistance than previously modelled. The ECM also hinted at this earlier on.

Edited January 22, 2013 by fourseasons

[bradymk]

Surely you can look at this as being a bad thing. If the block puts up more of a fight, surely all it is doing is delaying the inevitable. It could also prevent the canadian vortex moving east towards scandinavia and therefore preventing any Greenland High but I may be wrong here. Anyway, GEFS 12z, quite a few members have amplified flow post 240 with most having a mid atlantic ridge. Lets see what GFS 18z does in FI.

Edited January 22, 2013 by bradythemole

[Ice Day]

Looks at the differences at 186 between the 12z and 18z. Really is huge, accepting we're looking at the pub run here. Perhaps some new signals are being detected?

[TEITS]

Incredibly low temps being progged by the NAE for Thursday evening.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/22/basis18/ukuk/tmp2/13012418_2218.gif

Makes perfect sense synoptically due to various factors, clear skies, light winds, snow cover is a recipe for very low mins. Probably the coldest so far this winter and I reckon -15C might be reached.

Much better potential at +240 from tonights ECM.

Even im happy this evening!

[Naturist-Holiday.com]

Big wind storm potential during the last week of January.

Prior to that concern, we have more snowfall, ice and then flooding to deal with.

Interesting model watching at present!!

NH

Edited January 22, 2013 by Naturist-Holiday.com

[mike Meehan]

Surely you can look at this as being a bad thing. If the block puts up more of a fight, surely all it is doing is delaying the inevitable. It could also prevent the canadian vortex moving east towards scandinavia and therefore preventing any Greenland High so I may be wrong here but im sure that would only be delaying the inevitable and potentially wasting a week of winter. GEFS 12z, quite a few members have amplified flow post 240 with most having a mid atlantic ridge. Lets see what GFS 18z does in FI.

Don't worry about wasting a week of winter Brady, without a doubt we will get it back in the spring - such is our climate

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Incredibly low temps being progged by the NAE for Thursday evening.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/22/basis18/ukuk/tmp2/13012418_2218.gif

Makes perfect sense synoptically due to various factors, clear skies, light winds, snow cover is a recipe for very low mins. Probably the coldest so far this winter and I reckon -15C might be reached.

Much better potential at +240 from tonights ECM.

Even im happy this evening!

Yes quite, are we seeing the signs of a back track ? The gfs is worlds apart from the 12z , and the ECM hinting at this , does this mean we may suddenly see a flip? I'm not saying we will, just intriguing !

[Cheshire Freeze]

Surely you can look at this as being a bad thing. If the block puts up more of a fight, surely all it is doing is delaying the inevitable. It could also prevent the canadian vortex moving east towards scandinavia and therefore preventing any Greenland High so I may be wrong here but im sure that would only be delaying the inevitable and potentially wasting a week of winter. GEFS 12z, quite a few members have amplified flow post 240 with most having a mid atlantic ridge. Lets see what GFS 18z does in FI.

Not really.The vortex will continue to be disrupted well into February IMO and so any block to our east will have the potential to anchor further north and, if the Canadian vortex takes a hit, will have the potential to ridge to Greenland. One thing I've noted on today's runs is that the vortex intensity recently advertised, may have been overdone......which really doesn't come as a surprise to me as the models begin to latch on to downwelling from the strat.

[fourseasons]

Yes quite, are we seeing the signs of a back track ? The gfs is worlds apart from the 12z , and the ECM hinting at this , does this mean we may suddenly see a flip? I'm not saying we will, just intriguing !

We'll have to see what the model runs are like tomorrow but it is interesting and as I said earlier, I don't think that the mild winning out in the weekend is as clear cut as previously thought since I find it hard to believe that this entrenched cold can just be got rid of that quickly.

This model watching is quite fun really whatever weather we end up having; mild or cold.