London & South East Regional Discussion - 24th January 2013, 06z onwards

[Kiwi]

Interesting that those in the SW thread (I have an identity crisis SW or SE?) are reporting snow ...even areas like Weston-super-mare right on the coast.

They were meant to have rain from the start with no transient snow. Looking good for snow here later.

[alexisj9]

Looks like a good foot or more for the North, e midlands, wash, Shropshire etc, not too excited about down here, think the band will have weakened so am expecting no more than about 4 inches with possibly 6 or 7 over the downs

wow your very optimystic, I'm expecting very little in the way of snow, if it comes then probably 4cm would be a bit more realistic. Mind you I wouldn't mind if 4 inches did turn up.

[Mikel Nimbus]

This is where we are supposed to be at around 3PM

This is where we are:

Is it really going to pep up THAT much in a few hours? Seems rather a lot.

EDIT: BBC also has this for 12PM (hour ago) thats where it was supposed to be, looks alot weaker.

Hmmmm, hope not but possibly early signs that the GFS had it right with less energy further south?

[Weathizard]

4 inches in Croydon is a bit optimistic I agree by it depends how much this band intensifies, if it weakens will be lucky to get a covering but if it intensifies and the dew points are favourable never know.

But I am more confident tbh, only yesterday all the talk was snow to rain but now most of the country is going to be a snow only event so it's a fast moving situation

Interesting that those in the SW thread (I have an identity crisis SW or SE?) are reporting snow ...even areas like Weston-super-mare right on the coast.

They were meant to have rain from the start with no transient snow. Looking good for snow here later.

Thats because the first band is initially bumping into the cold air, the next band is the one that really pushes the cold air out of the way, whilst giving the north a good dumping, albeit probably melted by mid-day tomorrow. I am almost certain areas south of London are not going to get anything, maybe Watford north would be about my line for bigger possibilities. Again I don't like to be a kill joy just trying to make sure some on here don't think we will definitely get that much!

With regards to the colder air being thumped out the way by the second band this shows it.

Now:

SIX hours later

Edited January 25, 2013 by Weathizard

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 inches in Croydon is a bit optimistic I agree by it depends how much this band intensifies, if it weakens will be lucky to get a covering but if it intensifies and the dew points are favourable never know.

But I am more confident tbh, only yesterday all the talk was snow to rain but now most of the country is going to be a snow only event so it's a fast moving situation

I am still digging myself out of the 1 foot snowfall that you predicted the other night!

[Whereisthesnow?]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say Bexley is going to see a fair few cms (short lived granted). I have absolutely nothing to base that on.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Thats because the first band is initially bumping into the cold air, the next band is the one that really pushes the cold air out of the way, whilst giving the north a good dumping, albeit probably melted by mid-day tomorrow. I am almost certain areas south of London are not going to get anything, maybe Watford north would be about my line for bigger possibilities. Again I don't like to be a kill joy just trying to make sure some on here don't think we will definitely get that much!

I agree.

The uppers are getting higher with each hour and the dew point will soon be above freezing.

Maybe 30 minutes of wet snow/sleet but then all rain is the way I am seeing it!

[snowking]

Two things to remember

The weak stuff current through central England is a warm upper front - this will continue to track east and eventually fizzle out.

The heavier stuff is the stuff you see moving through Ireland now. The fronts are yet it occlude from there (currently still a seperate warm/cold front) and when these occlude, the precipitation will likely intensity, but it will always remain heavier the further north you head

SK

[Lampostwatcher]

Mr fawks several cm for London

[Kiwi]

I agree.

The uppers are getting higher with each hour and the dew point will soon be above freezing.

Maybe 30 minutes of wet snow/sleet but then all rain is the way I am seeing it!

Then why have the ever cautious Met Office updated their yellow warning area, pushing it south to Farnham and west to Bristol;

and saying "2-4 cm is likely in the south of the yellow warning area, with 4-8 cm over some hillier areas" ?? sa

[bobbydog]

looking at the current radar and satellite images,- http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ , http://www.sat24.com/de/gb , the rain band is weakening and fragmenting, with the track of the secondary band looking like staying to the north of london. if it maintains that track and intensity, i would say that the warnings are about 50 miles too far south, with any snow/rain for our region being short lived anyway

expect nothing out of this 'event' then anything you do get will be a bonus

[Southender]

Two things to remember

The weak stuff current through central England is a warm upper front - this will continue to track east and eventually fizzle out.

The heavier stuff is the stuff you see moving through Ireland now. The fronts are yet it occlude from there (currently still a seperate warm/cold front) and when these occlude, the precipitation will likely intensity, but it will always remain heavier the further north you head

SK

It all looks like it is moving NE though?

Is there something in the mix that is going to drag it more E/SE?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Then why have the ever cautious Met Office updated their yellow warning area, pushing it south to Farnham and west to Bristol;

and saying "2-4 cm is likely in the south of the yellow warning area, with 4-8 cm over some hillier areas" ?? sa

Just my own opinion.

I am happy to ramp - but with a dew of 2c and uppers of -1/0c I just don't see it.

[london-snow]

Mr fawks several cm for London

Where what channel?

[Kent Blizzard]

Looks like a good foot or more for the North, e midlands, wash, Shropshire etc, not too excited about down here, think the band will have weakened so am expecting no more than about 4 inches with possibly 6 or 7 over the downs

HAHA you are a funny forum member

[Sussex Jules]

Where what channel?

Don't worry he didn't. What he did say was that there was uncertainty regarding London possibly a few cm's but unclear at the moment.

[damp patch]

temp has dropped here ( charing nr ashford kent ) in last couple of hours. Maxed out at exactly 0c and currently at -0.9c

[Suburban Streamer]

dont know if this has been posted, but bbc are going to keep us updated with any changes at this link below (last updated 11.55). He said they would be updating it every hour or so...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/21198520

[Coast]

unclear at the moment.

I reckon it will be clear in the morning - totally cleared away!

[Kent Blizzard]

dont know if this has been posted, but bbc are going to keep us updated with any changes at this link below (last updated 11.55). He said they would be updating it every hour or so...

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/21198520

That tells me not only do they not know what will happen but also VERY cautious that could well be quite an event.

[Shunter]

Just as an aside the Meto 16-30 day update has changed this morning and is looks more promising for this area.......

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions will become more likely across all parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see drier than average conditions on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see average or even greater than average amounts of precipitation.

This forecast would seem to indicate High pressure to the North West and North to North Easterly winds to the East and South. In colder than average conditions in Febrauary this could well mean significant snow.

Maybe a sting in the tail of this winter yet ?

[Lampostwatcher]

[Coast]

That tells me not only do they not know what will happen but also VERY cautious that could well be quite an event.

Or conversely that they don't want to over-react?

[Weathizard]

Looking at the NAE 6z for when the main band is due to arrive at midnight (ish)

850 temp profiles

Dew points

Precip accumulation over the 6hrs

All this to me points against snow but still somehow:

Rather confusing, its probably foolish of me but I don't buy this at all from the NAE, snow on SE coastal fringes with a 30mph on shore wind? Bizzare to say the least

[Kent Blizzard]

Or conversely that they don't want to over-react?

Or under-react if there is such a thing?