scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[LomondSnowstorm]

heehee - straying off topic I 'spose, but yes pretty busy, maybe 90+ folk there. Might catch you at one of these things sometimes.

(ahem) To put it massively back on topic, the weather felt cold as I came out the meeting. (cough)

Haha, I'm sure we will at some point. That's quite impressive, lots of exciting stuff within the campaign and especially in Edinburgh.Be on the look out for referendum related events in the university as well in the coming weeks...

Anyway, to actually get back on topic, we have an exciting northwesterly to contend with after the toppler northerly in the coming 48 hours which looks good, not only for western areas but also to all of us for a time as hefty squally showers are blown in on due westerly winds accompanied with -6/-7C uppers:

If it keeps up at that intensity I wouldn't be surprised to see more black lines cropping up on those fax charts in the coming days, These Arctic westerlies can be a bit hit and miss for the east, if they miss it's because they tend to be dry rather than not cold enough, but from that I'd imagine we'll be seeing showers and more organised squalls at times heading west to east across Scotland from Monday midday onwards. The uppers required to deliver the goods in a westerly is significantly less than from an easterly, as this chart demonstrates:

While I'm emphatically not saying this is likely to be on the scale of that event, it could well be the biggest snowfall of the winter right up and down the west coast along with anywhere particularly exposed to westerlies. The exact wind vector will determine where does best out of this but given the winds and the heavy showers moving across us Monday night into Tuesday morning has potential to be a very disruptive period, with temperatures around 0C for most overnight compounding matters:

After that then we have an interesting setup, an ever shrinking warm sector moves across us on Tuesday evening from the northwest but by Wednesday we're into a northerly (18Z used for illustrative purposes only, good consensus for this particular event although shifts east or west are likely):

That's when we start to move towards a critical juncture in the modelling, because at +144 we can really simplify it down to a case of a cold trough to the east and Warm Air Advection and blocking to the west.

The GFS has the cold trough the furthest east, which down the line means that blocking would be liable to set up too far to the south and east to be of use to us:

It would however give a good spell of cold northerlies and could lead to better things even further down the line if we end up with a mid latitude block which keeps the surface cold locked in before eventually heading north when the gap arrives.

The ECM is better, and at this point has real potential - cold air is much further west, which means that even if the upstream pattern doesn't allow blocking to develop around Greenland the cold trough would probably still be able to steer our weather, which would mean a more sustained northerly with potential for some really cold uppers to make it further south. Also, note that the upstream pattern is better also, with more disruption of that trough and some signs of WAA going up the east of it too:

The UKMO, for me, is the best of the lot at this point, with clear signs of ridging towards Greenland, and even if it doesn't quite make it the pattern is far enough west that we could instead end up with either an Icelandic wedge northeasterly or enough heights to direct another easterly into play:

Just for comparison, here is the awesomeness that was December 2009, in all its glory:

Whether or not the PV and in fact the entire pattern is willing to remain far enough west to allow this kind of uber cold trough setup backed up by the Siberian PV fragment is hard to say, and it's very much an outside bet, but basically the closer it looks to this the better.

And for Monday evening into Tuesday, a wee Glasgow ramp:

Edited February 1, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[LomondSnowstorm]

Also, worth remembering that most people had written off the start of February for anything cold, so this is a rather nice wee bonus:

[GraemeB]

Hoi - quit stealing my Glasgow Ramp.

No, I mean literally, that's the ramp I take to get home to Stirling...

Edited February 1, 2013 by GraemeB

[Northernlights]

Another cold wet morning currently 3c with still a clearence over the Firth to the north showing blue skies.

Fed up of this returning rain band, ground is wet enough.

Maybe we will see the sun eventually today

[Ravelin]

Another cold wet morning currently 3c with still a clearence over the Firth to the north showing blue skies.

Fed up of this returning rain band, ground is wet enough.

Maybe we will see the sun eventually today

Very similar here this morning i.e. cool, grey and drizzle. One of those mornings where sitting at a desk in an office doesn't seem as bad after all.

Hopefully the weekend holds a bit more potential. Even if there's no snow, just to see some sunshine would be nice!

Anyone been to Glenshee this week, if so what are the ski runs like? I never quite trust what the ski areas say on their sites. "Covering of fresh snow on a firm base" usually equates to "Bloody hard, teeth rattling, snow with patches icy enough to skate on", or, "Spring Snow" means "Sink into slush and come home soaked". I don't expect it to be deep power (it does happen, one of my best skiing days ever was spent playing in Coire Fionn in deep powder) but something reasonably soft would be good.

I'm getting itchy feet and fancy a day skiing this weekend, probably Saturday. Not sure if the wife and kids are up for it, although I brought up the possibility last night. If they aren't, and I can swing a solo trip, even better i.e. no "daddy ski school" lessons required.

[NUT]

Raining here again too Not as heavy as it was at times yesterday though

[Hairy Celt]

was totally cloudy and rubbish first thing, bits of blue appearing now and the birds are starting to tweet

[Sunny Leith]

Noticed that on my walk to work this morning. Lots of tweeting. First signs of spring in the male bird mind it seems !

was totally cloudy and rubbish first thing, bits of blue appearing now and the birds are starting to tweet

[Benvironment]

Snowing here in Kinbrace Showers coming in off that northerly wind.

[GulberwickWeather]

Cold with occasional snow showers and a light dusting of snow.

[Northernlights]

Much more wintry looking sky over the Firth to the north now with distant snow showers on the horizon. Temperature still 3c so in fact falling , a fost tonight maybe?

Cold with occasional snow showers and a light dusting of snow.

Yes thats just the direction the snow showers to the north over the Firth must be coming from.

[festivalking]

I don't think you would have anything to worry about if that chart verified. That's a mill pond compared to what they had a couple of nights ago. It will take a lot more force than that to cancel the ferries.

Many thanks for getting back to me! 3 out of the 4 big models show a deep level of low pressure now on the 10th. All my eggs are in the ECM basket now

[Norrance]

Very similar here this morning i.e. cool, grey and drizzle. One of those mornings where sitting at a desk in an office doesn't seem as bad after all.

Hopefully the weekend holds a bit more potential. Even if there's no snow, just to see some sunshine would be nice!

Anyone been to Glenshee this week, if so what are the ski runs like? I never quite trust what the ski areas say on their sites. "Covering of fresh snow on a firm base" usually equates to "Bloody hard, teeth rattling, snow with patches icy enough to skate on", or, "Spring Snow" means "Sink into slush and come home soaked". I don't expect it to be deep power (it does happen, one of my best skiing days ever was spent playing in Coire Fionn in deep powder) but something reasonably soft would be good.

I'm getting itchy feet and fancy a day skiing this weekend, probably Saturday. Not sure if the wife and kids are up for it, although I brought up the possibility last night. If they aren't, and I can swing a solo trip, even better i.e. no "daddy ski school" lessons required.

Glenshee snow condition have been the subject of much debate over on Winterhighland as the resort report didn't change over a few days despite it turning hard and icy. There has been some fresh since so hopefully better now and all lifts including the recently damaged one should be running. Agree that if conditions are right the Coire Fionn / Glas Maol area can be a great day out. Coming down off the ridge behind Meal Odhar in powder. brill.

Edited February 1, 2013 by Norrance

[Hawesy]

5c/2c and dreich with light rain.

I wonder if we might see an air frost tonight. I only recorded two in January.

[Hairy Celt]

Snowing here in Kinbrace Showers coming in off that northerly wind.

Sleet showers earlier on the north coast. You have a bit of altitude - and inlandness aka continentality? - at Kinbrace...

[mistyqueen]

Rain off, blue sky appearing and helluva cauld! So, tell me, snow for Skye early in the week....or not? XC and Metcheck say yes, BBC and Meto say no. I is confused I is!

Edited February 1, 2013 by mistyqueen

[Benvironment]

Sleet showers earlier on the north coast. You have a bit of altitude - and inlandness aka continentality? - at Kinbrace...

It's about 100m I think. But like you say, it's far enough inland to get snow when it's raining on the coast.

[Ravelin]

Glenshee snow condition have been the subject of much debate over on Winterhighland as the resort report didn't change over a few days despite it turning hard and icy. There has been some fresh since so hopefully better now and all lifts including the recently damaged one should be running. Agree that if conditions are right the Coire Fionn / Glas Maol area can be a great day out. Coming down off the ridge behind Meal Odhar in powder. brill.

Thanks for that. I must admit not having thought to check the Winterhighland forums.

[applemint]

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[Northernlights]

A few photos of wintry showers to the north this afternoon slightly to the west of the cliffs at Dunbeath.

One also of a shower passing over Hairy Celt.

Currently 2c with a penetrating north wind.

Edited February 1, 2013 by Northernlights

[Snooz]

some squally showers earlier, sleet, caul rain.. but first real snow shower just passing overhead - too wet n 'warm' to lie.. but theres a few more to come for NE Aberdeenshire and Moray by the looks of the radar

edit: actually it is lying immediately on the grass..

Edited February 1, 2013 by Snooz

[Hairy Celt]

A few photos of wintry showers to the north this afternoon slightly to the west of the cliffs at Dunbeath.

One also of a shower passing over Hairy Celt.

Currently 2c with a penetrating north wind.

Good pics NL, but they're showing up really small - can you upload slightly bigger versions.

And that shower... was sort of sleety but very brief.

[Northernlights]

Snow shower incoming!!!

Sizing a bit better this time!

Edited February 1, 2013 by Northernlights

[Hairy Celt]

Snow shower incoming!!!

Sizing a bit better this time!

More, more, bigger is better. (Not what Ms HC says mind )

And young HC is so snow-starved, he has just asked if we can go up a hill tomorrow

[DR(S)NO]

Appreciate it's still a few days away,but looking as though quite a few of us could see some snow in the early hours of next Tuesday .If I say a wee prayer,perhaps my wee one might see some snow when he goes to nursery Tuesday morning.

The 12z today looks to have brought the snow potential forward by around 12 hours next mon into tues......certainly many places are looking very likely to see some accumulations...building up from around lunchtime on monday

The 528 dam line is firmly down across the country by midnight.

Looks like the snow will be brought in by a good period of stiff westerly winds... XC has winds gusting over 50 mph throughout the day on Monday....could easily be quite nasty travel conditions...worth taking note of