scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 26th January 2013

[A Winter's Tale]

After some rain in the morning things improved in the afternoon and now it's a a calm and cold evening with a clear starry sky. And for large parts of Scotland it should be a super winter's night with widespread clear skies, particulary in southern and western areas, and there should be showers in northern and eastern parts exposed to the northerly wind - the precipitation is most likely to be watery near the coast but further inland it should be snow. The outer hebrides could see some showers earlier on in the night and there could be snow on the high ground and maybe even in Stornoway. Shetland and Orkney should both see snow showers throughout the night and maybe a covering of a cm or two here. Caithness and the far north coast of the mainland should see some showers but Moray and Aberdeenshire should see snow showers coming off the Moray Firth and locally there could be a covering of around a cm. The eastern parts of the Borders should also see showers during the night. A widespread air frost is likely with lows around 0 to -3C for much of the country.

A beautiful Saturday morning is on the cards with plenty of sunshine and clear skies for many areas away from some northern areas that could still be at risk of seeing some snow showers. The sunshine should continue into the afternoon but cloud cover should increase as the day goes on. But a cold day is instore with highs of only 1 to 4C.

Saturday night should see a spell of persistent and heavy rain sweep across the country before clearing by dawn. A brief drier interlude with sunny intervals should soon be followed by another area of rainfall later on Sunday.

With an area of low pressure centred north of Scotland between Iceland and Norway, on Monday we develop a fresh WNWly flow with uppers of around -5 to -7C and plenty of showers sweeping across large parts of the country and these showers should be most frequent and heaviest in the west and the precipitation is likely to be wintry. After the recent cold spell was disapointing for significant snowfall in western Scotland, then early next week the west will probably be best for snow. In winter, polar maritime air can bring the best snowfalls to Glasgow and western parts of the country. A recent example was 3-5th December 2011 which saw heavy snow showers dump 7cm of the white stuff here but it did take a while for showers to make it across the Arrochar Alps and Cowal Hills. From Monday and into Tuesday, the strong flow should be conclusive to plenty of showers making progress across much of the country so there is the potential for something decent or even significant for western areas and the Nevis Range and Glencoe ski centres should have a decent fall of snow.

On Wednesday the signs are pointing towards a northerly wind so all in all the start of next week atleast is looking distinctly seasonal and lively. With high pressure to our south west, towards the end of next week it is looking like there'll be brief interludes of cold and mild air but this could change. The models are going for high pressure situated close to the middle of the atlantic which could result in a changeable pattern that fluctuates between cold and mild spells but as always at this range a different pattern altogether could emerge.

[scottishandy]

Glencoe had a nice big dump last night.

https://www.facebook...8&type=1&ref=nf

Agree, just had to endure a day sliding about on it. Lots of fresh but mostly fairly firm windblown in a Glencoe stylee. Must also have been a warm sector sometime yesterday afternoon as lower stuff was a wee bit crusty, fine to ride but you had to careful not to catch anything, even made it 2/3 of the way to the car park on very marginal stuff (can't describe it as snow really) pics later.

Ravelin, Glenshee should be good, cover is definetly there, or was last Thursday, knee deep pow. Might be some boiler plate kicking about but should be plenty of softer stashes and I would imagine folks will break up the surface pretty quickly tomorrow. I would go to Coe though, if vis turns out good it will be truly awesome.

[Norrance]

Skies clearing here and temps falling away. A nice crisp morning tomorrow.

Anyone noticed the recent optimism in the mt?

[Ravelin]

Agree, just had to endure a day sliding about on it. Lots of fresh but mostly fairly firm windblown in a Glencoe stylee. Must also have been a warm sector sometime yesterday afternoon as lower stuff was a wee bit crusty, fine to ride but you had to careful not to catch anything, even made it 2/3 of the way to the car park on very marginal stuff (can't describe it as snow really) pics later.

Ravelin, Glenshee should be good, cover is definetly there, or was last Thursday, knee deep pow. Might be some boiler plate kicking about but should be plenty of softer stashes and I would imagine folks will break up the surface pretty quickly tomorrow. I would go to Coe though, if vis turns out good it will be truly awesome.

Looks like I'm getting a day on my own on the slopes, been given a day pass by the wife. Only real option for me is Glenshee scottishandy. Nevis and Glencoe are just too far for day trips, as is Cairngorm realistically unless it's the only option. The Lecht is the closest, OK if I was taking the family but rather limited if on my own and able to wander. That just leave Glenshee really, which is fine by me. Everyone spread out across all the centres though, give each other some space.

Got a covering of lying snow here in Kemnay now, fell sometime between 6 and 7pm I think. Wasn't expecting more than a bit of sleet.

[November13]

was at glenshee today.great snow everywhere on a firm base.glas maol was loaded run of the day.should b an awesome day to

orrow.today was combat skiing due to wind and no vb.loads of plouged snow at side of roads after blairgowrie

[blitzen]

Skies clearing here and temps falling away. A nice crisp morning tomorrow.

Anyone noticed the recent optimism in the mt?

Yes.....Wouldn't it be great if RJS's post materialised?! We can but dream. He uses an entirely different method of long range forecasting tho' doesn't he? All to do with the sun, moon, planetary alignments etc. Seems his 2013 forecast is pretty spot on so far.

[jon_d1983]

Snows in here blowing about a fair bit tho in a fair wind but making things nice n white

[November13]

Some tentative signs of a small potential Tory boost (not here obviously, although Dave's more popular than Ed as a party leader!) - will take some time to tell whether this comes to anything.

snowing south of inversneck on the web cams as well.

[Hairy Celt]

Yes.....Wouldn't it be great if RJS's post materialised?! We can but dream. He uses an entirely different method of long range forecasting tho' doesn't he? All to do with the sun, moon, planetary alignments etc. Seems his 2013 forecast is pretty spot on so far.

Yeah I saw RJS' post too and vaguely remember him being badly stung last winter... Still, nice optimism!

Crikey, this is a poor show of a winter for the Black Isle so far. Even this (albeit brief) northerly looks like delivering nought.

Young HC was shown the weather-stone forecasting (well, nowcasting) method this evening. Very entertaining. If your stone is warm & sticky, it probably means it's night, you're drunk and THAT'S NOT YOUR STONE.

[Kelly]

We just had a mini snow shower HC, but I'm house sitting and am 150m ASL compared to my usual 19, so maybe that's made all the difference! It settled immediately, but don't think we'll get anymore now...

Yeah I saw RJS' post too and vaguely remember him being badly stung last winter... Still, nice optimism!

Crikey, this is a poor show of a winter for the Black Isle so far. Even this (albeit brief) northerly looks like delivering nought.

Young HC was shown the weather-stone forecasting (well, nowcasting) method this evening. Very entertaining. If your stone is warm & sticky, it probably means it's night, you're drunk and THAT'S NOT YOUR STONE.

[Allyw12]

A very positive MT tonight, but as we know it could be all back to doom and gloom just as quick. I really hope the trend continues and the cold returns along with some snow for us all

[howham]

Nice covering of snow here.

[DR(S)NO]

Well I'm all for snow and severe cold ...but I'm wondering if RJS post over on the MT is just a tad OTT.

Unless I'm misreading the charts, I think the following quote may be slightly Express-esque!!! And doubtless may appear in a front page headline this weekend.

"The dive bombing low on Tuesday will turn into a wintry hurricane for northern regions of the UK,and in itself is a major severe weather event". Really??

[Guest]

RJS can overegg things at times however he has been right a hell of a lot too. I am not 100% convinced by him but he does better than most.

Just about to re-enter the motherland at Coldstream. Been for a drive due to extreme insomnia and can report a sporadic but widespread dusting across large parts of the eastern Borders and north Northumberland. Drove a good five miles on undisturbed thick dusting of snow.

[Richard Taylor]

I have to laugh at some of the IMBY rubbish in the MT! Always after the 'beast from the east' or some such holy grail! Anyway, 0.5-1inch of snow here this am.

[doctormog]

I have to laugh at some of the IMBY rubbish in the MT! Always after the 'beast from the east' or some such holy grail! Anyway, 0.5-1inch of snow here this am.

Indeed Richard. The charts are full of wintry potential but some sniff at an easterly in 10 days time seems to often be the main topic of conversation. It's as if charts that show northerly or cold westerly output don't load on some people's computers or their brains don't compute them. Bizarre!

Lovely to see the snow cover and blue skies here this morning - February at its typical best.

[lorenzo]

That is half the fun of the MT Richard always one run frame away from a shortwave drama..!

Speaking of Easterly Beasties then the 00z ECM is worth a look as later on it has a nice cold pool looking to sneak in on an Easterly flow.

The fun here will also be watching if it can guide this synoptic to T+0 and not complete another monster U Turn as per earlier in Winter. If anything the clusters this time are even more certain.. take from that what you will !

Without getting too distracted by Valentines Day promise of cold there is this little bomb to contend with in the immediate.

Which after delivering another set of gales passes on through leaving a peach of a direct Northerly.

Quite pleasing to see in respect to the Strat charts from a week or so ago at 100mb, the lower ens of the run verifying well on the pattern.

Howling wind, snow showers and Arctic windchill. Great start to February..!

Edited February 2, 2013 by lorenzo

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! Snow well down the mountainside but not quite far enough down to my level! But boy, is it Baltic out there!

[Richard Taylor]

But northerlys are all 48hrs topplers, donchaknow!

[blitzen]

Hmmm....Looking forward to Tuesday then! Beautiful moning here, cloudless skies, bright sunshine, and chilly! 0.8c/-2.8c/W. Milding off after tea until Monday morning and then cold forecast for ? Let's see if Stevie boy is correct in his prediction that the GFS will side with ECM from around the 12zs tomorrow!

Edited February 2, 2013 by Blitzen

[Cheggers]

What a cracking day today. Cold crisp clean air, with a crunchy frost underfoot. Far cry from the week past of some really heavy rain and wind, which seemed to coincide with me being on the M74 3 out of the 4 times!!

[mardatha]

Gorgeous day here, just been out for walk. Bluest sky I've seen in years not months, and some slight warmth in the sun on your face. Good omen, a sunny Candlemas .

I hope.

Edited February 2, 2013 by mardatha

[LomondSnowstorm]

Hmmm....Looking forward to Tuesday then! Beautiful moning here, cloudless skies, bright sunshine, and chilly! 0.8c/-2.8c/W. Milding off after tea until Monday morning and then cold forecast for ? Let's see if Stevie boy is correct in his prediction that the GFS will side with ECM from around the 12zs tomorrow!

I wouldn't be surprised, it'll either stick very firmly to its guns and bring other models with it or it will very slowly, run by run, walk back to the rest of the models like it did with the last cold spell. Anyway, we have a whole lot of cold to get through before we get to that point even, which is nice, while this winter hasn't seen any deep cold I don't think there's been a seven day period which has been without some kind of snow interest. Hopefully the former changes and upgrades this winter from a pretty good to a classic.

I know the MO are trying to play down the potential for Monday onwards, but there is still a signal on their mesoscales for potential >5cm for western Scotland (which does exist) and I do perhaps wonder how well they model westerly convection given that the models, while improved, still tend to underplay North Sea convective events. Anyway, we can see the cold coming in very rapidly through Monday morning on the NAE on the 950hpas:

and then we have this:

The upper cold pool, given a straight westerly, is very impressive and I can't help but think that this has the hallmarks of quite a high impact snowfall.

The risk continues into Tuesday as the winds veer more northerly and we see fronts moving down from the northwest, although with an associated risk of warm sectors in the flow:

And then we potentially enter into the realm of ENErlies:

If I was being picky I'd say that by +240 the heights over Russia are almost too strong and the cold pool dries up temporarily but actually, given how cold the surface temperatures are over there and that waiting in the wings is the Siberian vortex I think it would be no more than a slight lull before the actual beast arrives:

Anyway, in summary cold, then less cold, then much colder with more snow potential, then very possibly marginal overnight Tuesday into Wednesday before it gets very cold from the north, and then after that we might finally see some cold.

Edited February 2, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm

[Norrance]

Cracking morning here with just some light clouds blowing down from the North later. One light snow flurry just before midnight last night. You could still see the individual flakes on the car roof in the morning along with the frost.

Away to take the dog out for a good walk shortly before settling down with a bottle of beer to watch the rugby[at least as long as we don't go more than two converted tries down!].

[skyeblue]

BBC have blizzards for us Monday. mm