South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 03/02/13 12z ------->

[jethro]

I bet we will still be cold and wet come April,and May,and June,and..............

Oh don't. The older I get, the harder it gets to remain motivated about my career; the glimmer of hope which gets me through the Winter is the prospect of warmth and sunshine through the Summer. Another Summer like the last one and I'll be struggling not to throw the towel in completely.

[fergieweather]

UKV and MOGREPS both consistent with circa 2-5cm snow from midnight through to circa 15z tomorrow across Cotswolds & Salisbury Plain (especially as trough crosses SE tomorrow into afternoon). V patchy 1-3cm signal elsewhere (e.g., Mendips). Instantaneous rates as trough crosses tomorrow could bring snow down to the deck whereby WBFL's would otherwise be a tad marginal (e.g. coastal Somerset) but no strong signal for any settling of note at lower elevations. Turning to more liquid ppn anyway later tomorrow into eve as WBFL rises back up beyond 4-600m.

Weakening frontal zone easing east into Fri suggests a little more snow for some. Weekend trickier but will worry about that nearer the time.

Longer term, MOGREPS stays consistent in ushering-in a broadly W'rly regime into 10-15d period or indeed earlier, as the block gets shunted-away further east. Weekend into early next week still uncertain re transition and longevity of the block, but signal in MOGREPS and EC EPS (which goes for an unbiased southerly into trend 10-15d period) all aid with broad notion of colder block being superceded after a few days. Anyway, much uncertainty for now - watch this space.

Edited February 4, 2013 by fergieweather

[katemart]

Oh don't. The older I get, the harder it gets to remain motivated about my career; the glimmer of hope which gets me through the Winter is the prospect of warmth and sunshine through the Summer. Another Summer like the last one and I'll be struggling not to throw the towel in completely.

Join the club, jethro. Bought myself a SAD lamp last weekend. Can't go abroad because of the dog and, besides, I do like to holiday in the UK because of environmental concerns and it's such a fantastically varied place - but the past few years have been an absolute washout. Apart from Bestival last Sept which was warm and sunny for the entire 5 days

[noggin]

Seeing as it has been wet for the last 9 months, for the first time ever I am looking forward to Spring. Hopefully there will be some blue sky, some sunshine and some warmth.

I am also looking forward to working in my new garden and seeing the plants that I planted on a rare dry day in October start to come into life.

Blooming windy, blooming overcast and blooming miserable here today!

[chris55]

UKV and MOGREPS both consistent with circa 2-5cm snow from midnight through to circa 15z tomorrow across Cotswolds & Salisbury Plain (especially as trough crosses SE tomorrow into afternoon). V patchy 1-3cm signal elsewhere (e.g., Mendips). Instantaneous rates as trough crosses tomorrow could bring snow down to the deck whereby WBFL's would otherwise be a tad marginal (e.g. coastal Somerset) but no strong signal for any settling of note at lower elevations. Turning to more liquid ppn anyway later tomorrow into eve as WBFL rises back up beyond 4-600m.

Weakening frontal zone easing east into Fri suggests a little more snow for some. Weekend trickier but will worry about that nearer the time.

Longer term, MOGREPS stays consistent in ushering-in a broadly W'rly regime into 10-15d period or indeed earlier, as the block gets shunted-away further east. Weekend into early next week still uncertain re transition and longevity of the block, but signal in MOGREPS and EC EPS (which goes for an unbiased southerly into trend 10-15d period) all aid with broad notion of colder block being superceded after a few days. Anyway, much uncertainty for now - watch this space.

Brilliant round up thanks Ian.

[jethro]

Who fancies a bet on it being a white Easter this year? Statistically, we're more likely to have a white Easter than a white Christmas, Easter Sunday this year is March 31st - I'm betting on it being a snowy one. The sum total of my meteorological knowledge and wisdom on which this forecast is based is zilch.

[cerneman]

Join the club, jethro. Bought myself a SAD lamp last weekend. Can't go abroad because of the dog and, besides, I do like to holiday in the UK because of environmental concerns and it's such a fantastically varied place - but the past few years have been an absolute washout. Apart from Bestival last Sept which was warm and sunny for the entire 5 days

Looks like Sir Elton John headlining at this years Bestival [ Don't let the Sun go down on me] Lets hope

[Evening thunder]

I'll be there......devon born & bred!

Me too! already miss the place at times when I'm at uni.

Tomorrow it would be great to be at home with the squally wintry showers and be able to drive a few miles to a nearby hill and great viewpoint at 250m high and watch things come in. Will have to see if any interest gets this far east in Surrey though.

So far while I've been at uni the SW has definitely been more interesting for weather than the SE over all. only a couple times with frost in December and the Snow in Jan has it been more interesting in Surrey (but guess when the 1 week of winter I had to be out the country was!). It may be more interesting occasionally with snow and maybe sometimes warmth/heat and thunderstorms in Surrey in the summer but the Scenery of Devon far outweighs that!

Although I hope February can get a colder min than January at home in East Devon, as Jan had the mildest absolute min of any winter month or March since I began records in 2007! but again it seems any chance for frosts colder than the -2.4C of Jan 2013 struggle to come or get downgraded.

[Raidan]

This year I have started keeping a diary of weather events,although I don't like or want snow any decent snowfall will be added,so Jans snow event has gone in along with the thundery activity last Sunday,don't think I'll be adding snow to it tomorrow but reading through GTLTW's posts,very interesting btw,with the mention of Hail Thunder maybe something to add to my weather diary in the coming days,maybe this year will a good one for decent weather events,or not

[pinkertonsurly]

The mad thread seems to get madder every day. There also appears to be a distinct shortage of punctuation and a fine disregard for orthodox spelling.

Anyway, 6.7 in Winchester with DP of 2

[Dorsetbred]

Instantaneous rates as trough crosses tomorrow could bring snow down to the deck whereby WBFL's would otherwise be a tad marginal (e.g. coastal Somerset) but no strong signal for any settling of note at lower elevations.

So from that I suppose your saying 30m elevation on the south coast of dorset (with a sea view) is unlikely to be in need of snow ploughs then ?

Edited February 4, 2013 by Dorsetbred

[Costa Del Fal]

Risk of wintry showers even here in west Cornwall tonight and the first half of tomorrow. Strong, North Westerly winds soon reaching Gale force will rattle them in and plenty of them too by the looks of it. Perhaps some locally good accumulations on Bodmin Moor. I expect little if no accumulation of any snow on lower ground. Some models just give sleet or even rain but the air looks distinctly cold enough for a good 12 hours id say for some classic wintry showers. Im expecting heavier, more exciting wintry showers than the few pathetic ones Stourbridge in the SW Midlands gets!

Then later on tomorrow Severe Gales seems to be our problem with 70-80mph gusts for a time!

[SilverWolf]

Radar looks great for Scotland, and Northern England if the temps drop! Ireland too... Not too many miles south in the scheme of things would be good.....

Oh, check out the stormy sea map a couple pages back on the Scotland thread, the one that has the whole world on it - post by Cheggars. Wow.

Edited February 4, 2013 by SilverWolf

[Dorsetbred]

Temps are dropping, but it'll take many hours to approach the magical zero at this rate.

Radar showing some classic snow squalls zipping across the northern part of the UK.

[George]

Met Office Ice warning increased

[chris55]

ECM at 132 and the front is just edging into the West,

0c Isotherm pretty non existent and the flow being pulled up off the continent.

Very much like the snowfall back in Jan, I do hope ECM has this one nailed Westcountry well placed.

Edited February 4, 2013 by chris55

[Dorsetbred]

ECM at 132 and the front is just edging into the West,

0c Isotherm pretty non existent and the flow being pulled up off the continent.

Very much like the snowfall back in Jan, I do hope ECM has this one nailed Westcountry well placed.

The question is, just how much of a southerly component is there in the frontal boundary, as that'll turn it quickly to rain.

[AWD]

Something a bit wintry now being forecast by the Met Office for Bristol tomorrow;

Not quite as good as Mullenders yet though!

[chris55]

This is a great little site for those who want to see what weather will come from the ECM run (for each run) for your location, best for longer range I'd say. I wouldn't say it'll be 100% correct in it's interpretation of the run but gives a good guide. Just type your location into the top bar. You can choose a few options down the side, some good easy to understand features in there.

http://www.yr.no/pla...36617/long.html

Edited February 4, 2013 by chris55

[chris55]

The question is, just how much of a southerly component is there in the frontal boundary, as that'll turn it quickly to rain.

Surely you want a southerly/southeasterly component in there, to keep it as snow!! Although not if you a referring to your specific location.

[Bristawl Si]

This is a great little site for those who want to see what weather will come from the ECM run (for each run) for your location, best for longer range I'd say. I wouldn't say it'll be 100% correct in it's interpretation of the run but gives a good guide. Just type your location into the top bar. You can choose a few options down the side, some good easy to understand features in there.

http://www.yr.no/pla...36617/long.html

Just took a look - sunday's potential re snow not brill for Bristol (imby).

[124alex]

Temp: 6.7c Dewpoint: 3c

[Blizzardof82]

Current temp 6.8c dew point 3.7c wind WNW.

[Mark Parsons]

Surely you want a southerly/southeasterly component in there, to keep it as snow!! Although not if you a referring to your specific location.

There definetly needs to be a SE minimum to give a chance of anywhere near the coast to get snow, easterly would be better with those uppers.............

[fergieweather]

V quick update -

Latest (15z) UKV alters snow distribution through tonight/Tues AM - sorry I can't share the mapping with you.

Now convergence banding progged across S Wales (sufficient snow for separate warning being considered here) across S Glos into B&NES down across parts of Wilts by 09z tomorrow (2-5cm in narrow strip extends from just north of Bristol ESE). Later UKV frames to 14z-Tues show accumulations higher parts of E/SE Mendips Plateau too, across to Salisbury Plain.

Much less signal now for Cotswolds.

All to play for in detail. Due to the UKV output, yellow warning (a cover-all one for ice) has been areally extended for W Country.

Cheers]

Ian

^{PS other areas of ca 2cm accumulations - Dorset uplands and SW Somerset towards Lyme Bay}