South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 03/02/13 12z ------->

[gottolovethisweather]

The expectations from the MetO for the upcoming 6 to 15 day forecasting period continue to mention the word SNOW. Something like seven consecutive days they have made use of the word in their briefings, so I suggest that only once they stop using it, can we presume our chnaces are gone.

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UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Feb 2013 to Monday 18 Feb 2013:

Most areas remaining on the cold side this weekend. Some bright spells for many areas, but also some wintry showers in some North Sea coastal areas. Meanwhile parts of western and southwestern UK are likely to be cloudier with some rain, sleet and hill snow, especially later this weekend. Then, next week western parts of the UK are likely to continue to see spells of cloudier weather with rain, hill snow and, perhaps, some snow temporarily to lower levels. Elsewhere conditions will tend to be colder and brighter, though some parts may catch a few wintry showers. Looking ahead to the weekend after next and the start of the following week, conditions most likely to be a little colder than average, with northwestern parts most at risk of unsettled weather.

Updated: 1157 on Mon 4 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Edited February 4, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Beast of Plympton]

The expectations from the MetO for the upcoming 6 to 15 day forecasting period continue to mention the word SNOW. Something like seven consecutive days they have made use of the word in their briefings, so I suggest that only once they stop using it, can we presume our chnaces are gone.

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UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Feb 2013 to Monday 18 Feb 2013:

Most areas remaining on the cold side this weekend. Some bright spells for many areas, but also some wintry showers in some North Sea coastal areas. Meanwhile parts of western and southwestern UK are likely to be cloudier with some rain, sleet and hill snow, especially later this weekend. Then, next week western parts of the UK are likely to continue to see spells of cloudier weather with rain, hill snow and, perhaps, some snow temporarily to lower levels. Elsewhere conditions will tend to be colder and brighter, though some parts may catch a few wintry showers. Looking ahead to the weekend after next and the start of the following week, conditions most likely to be a little colder than average, with northwestern parts most at risk of unsettled weather.

Updated: 1157 on Mon 4 Feb 2013

http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Got to be something in it. I have a "gut" feeling that we may be in for a couple of suprises before winters end.

[AWD]

Asked Ian his thoughts on the weekend, wish I hadn't now!

"Transient snow perhaps but heavy rain likely to take-over in SW. MOGREPS shifts blocking away E in 10-15d period"

[SunnySouthCoast]

Well been a lovely day down here out of the wind, peaked at 12C earlier because of the sun, clouded over more now & dropped back to 11C with a dew point of 4.5C. Met Office warning for ice tonight/tomorrow am does not include the coastal areas or the Isle of Wight & my forecast keeps chopping & changing between rain & sleet

[Andy Bown]

In reply to Offerman from last night, yes I can see Cley Hill as well as part of the edge of Salisbury Plain!

Glorious day today though the only shower in the Southern 3rd of the Uk has come through recently lol.

Temp now dropping at 7.5c after bring in double figures earlier.

[Nights King]

Asked Ian his thoughts on the weekend, wish I hadn't now!

"Transient snow perhaps but heavy rain likely to take-over in SW. MOGREPS shifts blocking away E in 10-15d period"

Better make the most of the occasional wintry shower tuesday morning then...

Local meto forecast still for me is heavy snow mid night tonight through to 3pm surely it can't be that wrong so close..?

Edited February 4, 2013 by mullender83

[A.J]

Yes I'll be sure to let you know when we have a beautiful summer and lots of beautiful beaches to go to!!! lol

I'll be there......devon born & bred!

[Coast]

Asked Ian his thoughts on the weekend, wish I hadn't now!

"Transient snow perhaps but heavy rain likely to take-over in SW. MOGREPS shifts blocking away E in 10-15d period"

That was my concern TBH (not that I have any of his knowledge or insight at all!!)

[Bristawl Si]

Asked Ian his thoughts on the weekend, wish I hadn't now!

"Transient snow perhaps but heavy rain likely to take-over in SW. MOGREPS shifts blocking away E in 10-15d period"

My straw clutch is the "10-15d period" - that's next Thursday 14th at earliest by my reckoning, so the weekend and early next week could provide some fun & games.

But maybe realistically it means any 'battleground' situ occurs a little way to our East and North in the UK.

Edited February 4, 2013 by Bristle boy

[AWD]

My straw clutch is the "10-15d period" - that's next Thursday 14th at earliest by my reckoning, so the weekend and early next week could provide some fun & games.

That's a good point. That would also broadly tie in with the EC Det and EC ens that tentatively show signs of a less cold pattern in week 2.

I must be stupid to go against Ian but I do think that parts of our region will see something more than transient snow this weekend. Still an age away anyway.

Edited February 4, 2013 by AWD

[Coast]

GFS 12z now coming out and it doesn't make for a thriller reading through tomorrow and Wednesday:

Wet slush:

Transient snow to the North of the region for a couple of hours:

Fading to knowt a couple of hours later:

Wednesday currently has very little to offer on this run.

[Bristawl Si]

That's a good point. That would also broadly tie in with the EC Det and EC ens that tentatively show signs of a less cold pattern in week 2.

I must be stupid to go against Ian but I do think that parts of our region will see something more than transient snow this weekend. Still an age away anyway.

All eyes on this eve's ECM to see if that system/slider is still there for Sunday.

Seems like an age away - Sunday i mean!

[TwisterGirl81]

Asked Ian his thoughts on the weekend, wish I hadn't now!

"Transient snow perhaps but heavy rain likely to take-over in SW. MOGREPS shifts blocking away E in 10-15d period"

My thoughts too, I love snow but I think this whole SSW has been much a do about nothing.... But it has been soooo close for us in Exeter but we've just always been one or two degree's too mild so it has been very frustrating this winter. I appreciate that counties further east in the Southwest have had a fair bit though as we've looked on enviously I feel sorry for kiddiewinks too as it's always nice to have snow for them.

Edited February 4, 2013 by TwisterGirl81

[AWD]

My thoughts too, I love snow but I think this whole SSW has been much a do about nothing.... But it has been soooo close for us in Exeter but we've just always been one or two degree's too mild so it has been very frustrating this winter. I appreciate that counties further east in the Southwest have had a fair bit though as we've looked on enviously I feel sorry for kiddiewinks too as it's always nice to haves of snow for them.

The SSW has been forecast correctly and verified. Unfortunetly it benefited the Americans and Canadians rather than us, but this was made clear. A SSW promotes HLB. Where that sets up is pot luck. It will only ever affect a certain part of the Northern Hemisphere.

[jethro]

I don't know what the temperature has been today but I've been stuck up a very high ladder pruning Wisteria, with the wind blowing and at times tipping down with sleety rain, it felt blinking cold!

If it's not going to snow, or at least be dry and frosty, then I'd like to fast forward to mid April please, bored with being cold and wet. Roll on Summer.

[TwisterGirl81]

The SSW has been forecast correctly and verified. Unfortunetly it benefited the Americans and Canadians rather than us, but this was made clear. A SSW promotes HLB. Where that sets up is pot luck. It will only ever affect a certain part of the Northern Hemisphere.

I didn't know that, I know it's been verified I just thought that we would all get a picking of the apple crumble! Bloody americans!!

So what does 'HLB' mean, is there any chance it'll move over to us at all before the winter is out?

[Panayiotis]

I didn't know that, I know it's been verified I just thought that we would all get a picking of the apple crumble! Bloody americans!!

So what does 'HLB' mean, is there any chance it'll move over to us at all before the winter is out?

High level blocking.

[AWD]

I didn't know that, I know it's been verified I just thought that we would all get a picking of the apple crumble! Bloody americans!!

So what does 'HLB' mean, is there any chance it'll move over to us at all before the winter is out?

High Latitude Blocking.

Basically, from my limited knowledge on this subject, the SSW split the polar vortex in two. Pacific storm activity intensified in December and early January creating a wave in the lower atmosphere. The energy from this wave penetrated the Stratosphere around the Himalaya's area, causing a SSW, rapidly reversing the cyclonic winds around the pole and splitting the polar vortex into two.

With large positive sea surface temperatures in parts of the Indian Ocean and North Pacific area, this was where High Latitude Blocking set up.

The warm air in the Stratosphere sinks, but continuing to warm by compressional heating as it does so. This then causes High Pressure to form around the pole, causing the cold air to sink south under the two vortices. The vortex over North America pushed cold air over the USA and Canada, with multiple outbreaks of Arctic air here throughout January. This cold air over the USA caused a tight thermal gradient on the eastern seaboard, causing large, deep depressions to form and head into Greenland on the Jet Stream. This prevented heights forming over Greenland, which is a hotspot for cold weather for the UK, hence why the UK never saw the true effects of the SSW.

Hence why our cold weather this winter is being brought about by height rises to our NE rather than our favoured NW, because of the effects the SSW has on the eastern seaboard, keeping low heights to our NW.

That's my understanding anyway, I'm sure the Strat experts in the Strat thread will be able to help you out further if you wish!

Edited February 4, 2013 by AWD

[BARRY]

I'll be there......devon born & bred!

here you go don't get home sick

http://www.southsands.com/content/web-camera

[Coast]

Local meto forecast still for me is heavy snow mid night tonight through to 3pm surely it can't be that wrong so close..?

Lets hope for all you guys that want snow, it isn't

[cerneman]

I don't know what the temperature has been today but I've been stuck up a very high ladder pruning Wisteria, with the wind blowing and at times tipping down with sleety rain, it felt blinking cold!

If it's not going to snow, or at least be dry and frosty, then I'd like to fast forward to mid April please, bored with being cold and wet. Roll on Summer.

Signs of Spring

[cloudbase]

I don't know what the temperature has been today but I've been stuck up a very high ladder pruning Wisteria, with the wind blowing and at times tipping down with sleety rain, it felt blinking cold!

If it's not going to snow, or at least be dry and frosty, then I'd like to fast forward to mid April please, bored with being cold and wet. Roll on Summer.

I bet we will still be cold and wet come April,and May,and June,and..............

[AWD]

The latest UKMO shows some PPN about most of the region at some point over the next 18 hours, in what will become increasingly snow conducive sypnotics;

[AWD]

From Ian:

"W COUNTRY Showers more frequent tonight associated with much colder air aloft; ice hazard widespread away from coast; snow showers for some."

"W COUNTRY Snow showers & more widespread area of precipitation later tomoro moving SE offer poss 1-4cm snow e.g. Cotswolds, Salisbury Plain."

[AWD]

Latest high res NMM model showing some wintry PPN, a mix of rain, sleet & snow, tomorrow morning;