South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 03/02/13 12z ------->

[AWD]

Channel Low anyone;

Got to admire this model, its certainly keeping a potentially wintry outlook in the mix!

[chris55]

Had to pop this in here!!!! Snow galore for some (if not most) in the region!!!!

Edited February 3, 2013 by chris55

[Nights King]

Got to admit, I'm surprised at your Met Office App forecast you've posted above for Tuesday. But hey, who knows, still 48 hours out yet!

Surprised in what way? how wintry it looks?

I just hope it doesnt downgrade monday although being only two days out and a met office app im hopeful

[AWD]

Surprised in what way? how wintry it looks?

I just hope it doesnt downgrade monday although being only two days out and a met office app im hopeful

How much snow it shows. Don't get me wrong, I think you will see some snow showers on Tuesday, but half a day of heavy snow? Mmmmm.........

Like I said though, early days yet!

[Nights King]

How much snow it shows. Don't get me wrong, I think you will see some snow showers on Tuesday, but half a day of heavy snow? Mmmmm.........

Like I said though, early days yet!

I just checked it and its upgraded slightly for temperatures now with values no higher than 1c until 3pm

Edited February 3, 2013 by mullender83

[AWD]

I just checked it and its upgraded slightly for temperatures now with values no higher than 1c until 3pm

After viewing the NMM I can kind of see where that forecast might come from now. The NMM, on Tuesday morning shows a small but intense band of PPN coming into the NW, and falling as snow inland. Be interesting to see the next run and what it shows for us.

Would happily give up Tuesday for what the ECM shows next weekend though!

Edited February 3, 2013 by AWD

[Bristawl Si]

After viewing the NMM I can kind of see where that forecast might come from now. The NMM, on Tuesday morning shows a small but intense band of PPN coming into the NW, and falling as snow inland. Be interesting to see the next run and what it shows for us.

Would happily give up Tuesday for what the ECM shows next weekend though!

Yes, looks like a classic from 30 years ago!

Will it actually happen though?

I'll be waiting Ian's MOGREPs updates over coming days - will the Meto jump aboard the snowtrain?

[AWD]

Yes, looks like a classic from 30 years ago!

Will it actually happen though?

I'll be waiting Ian's MOGREPs updates over coming days - will the Meto jump aboard the snowtrain?

Low probability as a realistic view but when the worlds best computer model repeatedly churns out cold and snowy output for next weekend and has now brought it down to 144/168 hours you got to consider it at the least.

Wouldn't go into the MOD thread if it drops the evolution tomorrow however! :p

Edited February 3, 2013 by AWD

[A.J]

After viewing the NMM I can kind of see where that forecast might come from now. The NMM, on Tuesday morning shows a small but intense band of PPN coming into the NW, and falling as snow inland. Be interesting to see the next run and what it shows for us.

Would happily give up Tuesday for what the ECM shows next weekend though!

cor blimey Guvnor, what an ECM for next weekend!... I'd be taking an enforced few days off work again!

[J10]

Low probability as a realistic view but when the worlds best computer model repeatedly churns out cold and snowy output for next weekend and has now brought it down to 144/168 hours you got to consider it at the least.

Wouldn't go into the MOD thread if it drops the evolution tomorrow however!

That's why we introduced this emoticon.

[Frosty_wsm]

Quite surprised nobody has mentioned the ECM run, heavy snow for the south west on the 168h chart, hope ecm sticks to it's guns, it seems to be at the moment, poor old GFS playing catch up again just like with the last cold spell!

[A.J]

Quite surprised nobody has mentioned the ECM run, heavy snow for the south west on the 168h chart, hope ecm sticks to it's guns, it seems to be at the moment, poor old GFS playing catch up again just like with the last cold spell!

erm......should've gone to SpecSavers?

[AWD]

Quite surprised nobody has mentioned the ECM run, heavy snow for the south west on the 168h chart, hope ecm sticks to it's guns, it seems to be at the moment, poor old GFS playing catch up again just like with the last cold spell!

There's a page of posts about it above! :p

[dec10snow]

A quick question, where's all this wind come from on Tuesday? I though it was only meant to be gusty with the showers, but I'm being predicted gusts of 55mph on Tuesday?

[Polar Bear]

Just seen the countryside forecast .. All pretty much confirming the above. Could be an interesting week ahead. Will be staying and lurking on here.. Oh yes and I had clocked on about these strong winds. Makes things more interesting.

[Andy Bown]

We got very lucky with our house move on Friday with the rain clearing 10 mins after the removal men turned up!

now in a house with far better views so very much looking forward to the showery convective skies this week!

[AWD]

Interesting FAX charts for midweek;

Troughs moving south in a north/north westerly airflow, sub 528DAM air. Difficult at this stage to say where will see rain or snow as things like Dewpoints and WBFL will be crucial, especially in any warm sectors mixed into the flow, but the above charts do show PPN about our region.

[offerman]

Hi andy , is the viewlooking toward cley hill?

Ecm or not, 144 is so far away, whats the point in getting excited unless ecm showed 48 hrs out. Itll probaly change and we are all dissapointed.

[Mark Neal.]

Some tweets from SW BBC Forecaster Ian Fergusson... W COUNTRY, MON: Dry, windy & largely bright; turning colder later into eve as air of NE Canadian origin floods down across UK into the night W COUNTRY, TUES: Wintry showers spread from NW Mon night into Tues AM; snow accumulations in places; windy & bitterly cold, w sig wind chill W COUNTRY On Tues, albeit ambient temperature will be typically 4-5C (e.g. Bristol), wind chill will make it feel more like circa -5 to -6C.

[dec10snow]

Good to see a number of the ensembles agreeing with the ECM run from earlier, from Matt Hugo's twitter:

Fascinating set of 12z EC ENS with 31 ensemble members support the Det model with trough disruption around 168hrs.

[chris55]

21 out of the 51 ECM ens (plus the control) bring in a "potential" snow event to the south west at 168 like the Operational, very far out to pin down a slider Low like this but interesting nonetheless.

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2013020312!!/

[chris55]

Some tweets from SW BBC Forecaster Ian Fergusson... W COUNTRY, MON: Dry, windy & largely bright; turning colder later into eve as air of NE Canadian origin floods down across UK into the night W COUNTRY, TUES: Wintry showers spread from NW Mon night into Tues AM; snow accumulations in places; windy & bitterly cold, w sig wind chill W COUNTRY On Tues, albeit ambient temperature will be typically 4-5C (e.g. Bristol), wind chill will make it feel more like circa -5 to -6C.

Monday night into Tuesday morning sounds interesting, superb if we do see some snow showers blown inland on a very strong North West wind. A set up we have not seen for some years IIRC.

Will be great to see yet another "type" of snow so to speak, after the frontal snow of Jan. Then we have next weeks potential.

Xmas 2004 was a similar set up and gave us a covering on Christmas night,

Edited February 3, 2013 by chris55

[gottolovethisweather]

Channel Low anyone;

AWD, I think we are long overdue one, so maybe this year will produce it.

Edited February 3, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Polar Bear]

AWD, I think we are long overdue one, so maybe this year will produce it.

And just as they say in the advert. Can he ( the low) upgrade? ..

[gottolovethisweather]

cor blimey Guvnor, what an ECM for next weekend!... I'd be taking an enforced few days off work again!

Maybe it'll be party time again, AJ.