Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[Rocheydub]

more epicness from ecm will it ever give this up.

Gfs or the ecm has got this seroiously wrong.

But which one? I want forget who made a mess of this saga

Not to post an IMBY post CS, but still not convinced we will do well out of this... Yes, it's looking promising, and certainly -6 uppers from the cold continent may be enough to bring us some white stuff, but we missed out last time, and after tonight, we may do so again...

Still tonight, we are modeled to have -7 uppers tonight... Anything falling in that will defo be wintery!

[london-snow]

So are you telling me that the 'boom' posts on Saturday for day 7 ECM are showing the same for today for the same day.

Of course it's been toned down!

Of course the ECM has kept the cold pattern, that I am not arguing I'm just simply stating a fact that its been watered down!

Well back up your fact with the charts to prove then that's all i am saying because i disagree..

At the end of the day i think it bottles down to those who view the models on wetter & those who view on meteociel.

[cooling climate]

indeed peter - its very gfs 12z like at day 4 and will be interesting to see how/where the model progs the undercut with the starting point at T96. perhaps we are coming together with the output at last. something i have learnt form the past few days is not to pre empt the ecm run as it comes out as you will likely look foolish.

Not from the ECM run I am looking at. Really strange how you draw them conclusions.

The little low running down the right flank of the high would be very benefical in drawing

colder air down and also keeping the high in situ.

Very good so far me thinks.

[Long haul to mild]

Well ECM sticking to it's guns in the semi-reliable, a shadow easterly at day 7. Atlantic back at T192 ?

Atlantic gets closer, but Easterly hangs on in the SE especially

[shuggee]

Just a quick note to stick to topic please at this peak time on the forum

[nick sussex]

I think a case can be made for a chance of a snow event around 144hrs, but a true easterly for the moment seems less likely.

And again though the ECM operational run does continue to deepen that eastern USA low well beyond any other model which does have ramifications down stream,NOAA just don't like what its doing with that low and so we have to wait and see whether its the leader here or is wrong upstream.

This will impact the sharpness of that troughing to the west of the UK and the energy around Greenland.

I'd certainly be wary of the ECM until we see what the resolution is regarding the upstream pattern.

[Sussex snowstorm]

Another undercut after 198 if so then this winter has been from undercutting to give us the goods , happend last cold spell are we heading the same way ?

[Dexter29]

Well back up your fact with the charts to prove then that's all i am saying because i disagree..

At the end of the day i think it bottles down to those who view the models on wetter & those who view on meteociel.

I'm on my iPhone so i can't posts charts and I wouldn't even know how to obtain the ECM charts from two days ago anyway.

I view the ECM on wetter.

Listen I'm sure you have a lot more knowledge than me, I'm learning!

All I was saying was the ECM to my eyes looked better on Saturdays runs from memory and the upbeat posts reflected this.

The ECM12z still sticking to its guns which is awesome.

Edited February 4, 2013 by Dexter29

[TEITS]

Great ECM so far and to be honest I don't need to see anymore.

It is becoming obvious the GFS is on its own and for the time being the main uncertainty is the exact track of the slider LP on Sunday. Still going for the W to see a snow event on Sunday but this might affect central regions instead. Beyond and like I said this morning snow showers moving in to E areas but most frequent, heavy the further SE you are.

[SMU]

The ECM tonight is still rock solid. The UKMO is identical bar at the eastern edge of the 'cone' if you like.

The GFS is still floundering' around at sea.

Is it watered down, well my Morning analysis had 4 days with -9 X2 & -10X2 now on the 12z the first day has edged up to -8 as the frontal zone is nearer ( 144 ) however by 168 its -11c & 192 is -10c.

There is an air of Feb 12 about the ECM, which again I have consistently posted in my thoughts & tonight is no exception.

http://www.meteociel...M1-192.GIF?04-0

Snow in the SE, milder in the NW, cold in the middle- with 240 I guess some sort of frontal snow pushing across the UK.

Nowts changed tonight, the GFS is still rubbish, the UKMO is EAST but in the Cone, the ECM is exactly where I said the mean would be earlier to Tim- across the spine of the UK at 144.

Snow for many- more favoured East./ SE / NE- as an easterly always is.

Same as the North westerly favours the NW & North over the coming day or so.

S

PS Still bitter over England at 216 with surface temps 0/1c in slack continental air

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020412/ECM1-216.GIF?04-0

Edited February 4, 2013 by Steve Murr

[weather eater]

So, the idea of the theme of consistency of the non consensus solution remains alive and well with the ECM tonight

Pretty much as I said a while back, I’m more optimistic but this is by no means a done deal, in the crucial period the GFS and the ECM are not really miles apart but as we all know one or the other doesn’t have to get it very wrong for a massive impact later on, still 50/50 for me, let’s hope the 18z pushes the GFS in the desired direction.

[ChartViewer]

Forgetting the hunt for snow for a minute but again we see heights over Russia, Scandi again this Winter......no GH but heights East North East...riskier solution but rewards can be great......

[london-snow]

I'm on my iPhone so i can't posts charts and I wouldn't even know how to obtain the ECM charts from two days ago anyway.

I view the ECM on wetter.

Listen I'm sure you have a lot more knowledge than me, I'm learning!

All I was saying was the ECM to my eyes looked better on Saturdays runs from memory and the upbeat posts reflected this.

The ECM12z still sticking to its guns which is awesome.

I dont think its about knowledge or other factors. We are all learning & did not mean to come across rude.

However i think some comments regarding a watered down ecm is down to how they solely view the output.

If you view wetter then you may feel its watered down.

If you view meteociel then you will see what i am talking about i myself will try and post a few charts showing the differences between both a bit later.

L-S

[Frosty.]

Great ECM so far and to be honest I don't need to see anymore.

I'm still thinking there could be a battleground over the uk this weekend, the gfs is always pushing on with it's eastward bias whereas the ecm is further west with a classic wintry weekend, I have no idea what mogreps are indicating or the ukmo ens but the Ecm is a BIG model and has been very stable and relentless with it's very wintry outlook, hoping we get the holy grail finale to winter we are craving.

[Dexter29]

I dont think its about knowledge or other factors. We are all learning & did not mean to come across rude.

However i think some comments regarding a watered down ecm is down to how they solely view the output.

If you view wetter then you may feel its watered down.

If you view meteociel then you will see what i am talking about i myself will try and post a few charts showing the differences between both a bit later.

L-S

Thanks for the info.

Will definitely switch to viewing on meteociel.

[Long haul to mild]

Firmly FI, but the Atlantic certainly isn't getting very far at T240

[Tamara]

Pretty much as I said a while back, I’m more optimistic but this is by no means a done deal, in the crucial period the GFS and the ECM are not really miles apart but as we all know one or the other doesn’t have to get it very wrong for a massive impact later on, still 50/50 for me, let’s hope the 18z pushes the GFS in the desired direction.

Well that helps put me rather back to what I thought before the UKMO and GFS came out, but some solid ECM ensembles, stamps and then the UKMO adjusting back west would obviously help tomorrow. I don't include the GFS (yet) simply because I don't think it will move quickly enough if this is indeed the direction of travel

Edited February 4, 2013 by Tamara Road

[SMU]

My comments around the MOGREPS ( from snippets Ian has posted this winter) is that these arent that great medium term & certainly I wouldnt put to much stock in them- maybe they are suceptable to the same bias as the GFS ensembles

ECM 240

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020412/ECM1-240.GIF?04-0

If that varifies- another 3/4 days lockout for the Atlantic.

S

[TEITS]

I'm still thinking there could be a battleground over the uk this weekend, the gfs is always pushing on with it's eastward bias whereas the ecm is further west with a classic wintry weekend, I have no idea what mogreps are indicating or the ukmo ens but the Ecm is a BIG model and has been very stable and relentless with it's very wintry outlook, hoping we get the holy grail finale to winter we are craving.

Sunday holds alot of potential.

If I had to pick one city who at the moment seem to be in prime position then I would say Birmingham. I also feel the E,lys at +168 look very promising and locations such as kent would see quiet a number of snow showers.

The negative though is if those in the W miss the snow event on Sunday because the LP is too far E, then this could be pretty much a non event for them. At this stage it doesn't look as though the E,ly will spread the snow showers as far W as locations such as the W/SW. So it will probably be a cold, dry, frosty period for them.

Edited February 4, 2013 by THE EYE IN THE SKY

[cold snap]

if you look at northern hemisphere chart at 216 ,it really is a outstanding chart

look northeast full of cold

[ChartViewer]

My comments around the MOGREPS ( from snippets Ian has posted this winter) is that these arent that great medium term & certainly I wouldnt put to much stock in them- maybe they are suceptable to the same bias as the GFS ensembles

ECM 240

http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?04-0

If that varifies- another 3/4 days lockout for the Atlantic.

S

Thats a huge statement to make Steve seeing as my taxpayers money pays for the UKMO.....Well at least 0.00001 of a pence does ....

Without seeing the output day in day out then id be very cautious of that.

Regards

[chris55]

ECM at 132 and the front is just edging into the West,

0c Isotherm pretty non existent and the flow being pulled up off the continent.

Very much like the snowfall back in Jan, I do hope ECM has this one nailed!!!!

Edited February 4, 2013 by chris55

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

My comments around the MOGREPS ( from snippets Ian has posted this winter) is that these arent that great medium term & certainly I wouldnt put to much stock in them- maybe they are suceptable to the same bias as the GFS ensembles

ECM 240

http://www.meteociel...M1-240.GIF?04-0

If that varifies- another 3/4 days lockout for the Atlantic.

S

Actually Steve, that is a very good chart as the HP strengthens against the Atlantic and backs a bit more west. That suggests to me a continued retrogression signal. As you said there is a whiff of Feb 12 BUT there may be one difference. The initial trigger low I think happened in late Jan and it was further east near Denmark and thus the retrogressing block couldn't back enough to our WNW. If the trigger LP slides over us then I think we'll see upgrades on block strength and retrograde over coming days.

BFTP

[Ian Brown]

The ECM tonight is still rock solid. The UKMO is identical bar at the eastern edge of the 'cone' if you like.

The GFS is still floundering' around at sea.

Is it watered down, well my Morning analysis had 4 days with -9 X2 & -10X2 now on the 12z the first day has edged up to -8 as the frontal zone is nearer ( 144 ) however by 168 its -11c & 192 is -10c.

There is an air of Feb 12 about the ECM, which again I have consistently posted in my thoughts & tonight is no exception.

http://www.meteociel...M1-192.GIF?04-0

Snow in the SE, milder in the NW, cold in the middle- with 240 I guess some sort of frontal snow pushing across the UK.

Nowts changed tonight, the GFS is still rubbish, the UKMO is EAST but in the Cone, the ECM is exactly where I said the mean would be earlier to Tim- across the spine of the UK at 144.

Snow for many- more favoured East./ SE / NE- as an easterly always is.

Same as the North westerly favours the NW & North over the coming day or so.

S

PS Still bitter over England at 216 with surface temps 0/1c in slack continental air

http://www.meteociel...M1-216.GIF?04-0

Yes but it's a gradual game over from T168 once you see where the energy is going and milder for all by day 11.

Not that that matters hugely at this stage as the earlier timeframes are still to be decided.

[cooling climate]

Lol that little low over Finland is aving a laugh. The trajectory it takes from t168 to t216 and then

says to itself nah I don't want to go that way I'll go this way instead.