Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[stodge]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

As I said earlier, the key feature is the Baltic LP. ECM has this less intense and further south than GFS. This enables a more significant block to build over Scandinavia. The impact of this on the rest of the run I don't know.

It's not for me to say but I would have thought such a system would be better modelled by the European than by the American models.

[Methuselah]

An idea:

[Dexter29]

You find me a chart from the ecm where it has CONSISTENTLY toned down the potential & i will say i am wrong.

Each run will show a diffrence however the fact is the ecm thus far has been solid with a cold e~ne pattern to happen in the coming days.

So are you telling me that the 'boom' posts on Saturday for day 7 ECM are showing the same for today for the same day.

Of course it's been toned down!

Of course the ECM has kept the cold pattern, that I am not arguing I'm just simply stating a fact that its been watered down!

Edited February 4, 2013 by Dexter29

[Mucka]

You find me a chart from the ecm where it has CONSISTENTLY toned down the potential & i will say i am wrong.

Each run will show a diffrence however the fact is the ecm thus far has been solid with a cold e~ne pattern to happen in the coming days.

If you are talking about conditions IYBY then likely they would appear the same. If you are talking about the overall blocking pattern and longer term prospects then things have certainly changed. It would just end up an argument of semantics eventually but for me it is clear the ECM charts of the 2nd showed a much more secure cold spell.

[chris55]

Heavy snow for many!!............BOOM (lol)

Edited February 4, 2013 by chris55

[Long haul to mild]

Here's the ECM at T144; slightly further East, but still good.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

[Summer Sun]

t144 slightly further east but still good for snow fans

Edited February 4, 2013 by Gavin.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Agree with the legend that is TEITS! nothing like GFS and a snowy weekend on ECMWF

[MR EXTREMES]

Held back from posting but t144 here we go cold in coming.

On my phone can't post chart.

[-uksnow-]

Well the slider is still sliding nicely

People need to re-asses their expectations.

[Dexter29]

Great ECM 12z, a snowy weekend?

[chris55]

Goldilocks runs from the models today, to far east - GFS (to hot) to far west - GEM (to cold, but know snow) ECM - just right!

Wetter version,

Edited February 4, 2013 by chris55

[Long haul to mild]

T168: Easterly flow across the South

[Mucka]

As for FI, we are talking about the period that makes or breaks the cold spell which is now 120 and was 168, hardly FI. Here are comparison charts but you are free to disagree,. I won't post on this again because it doesn't really matter and I am sure we both want the same end result.

Edited February 4, 2013 by shuggee

[Roger J Smith]

144h ECM looks like the Michelin man is pointing at Aberdeen (850s).

If that pattern don't snow, then I'll re-tyre.

[Ian Brown]

Well ECM sticking to it's guns in the semi-reliable, a shadow easterly at day 7. Atlantic back at T192 ?

[weather eater]

Well the slider is still sliding nicely

People need to re-asses their expectations.

Am certainly glad the ECM is sticking to its guns, not a done deal though, however, that and the thoughts about early Feb on the video link have made me more optimistic.

[chris55]

Although this slider looks a dead cert now we are not going to nail down it's exact track for a few days yet, and it will make all the difference regarding a snow event on Sunday, which is where my interest is firmly placed at the moment.

[Mucka]

Well ECM sticking to it's guns in the semi-reliable, a shadow easterly at day 7. Atlantic back at T192 ?

Great with the slider but still too flat behind? Could be. We need that second ridge and then it is boom time.

Edited February 4, 2013 by Mucka

[chris55]

Decent uppers on the ECM 168 as well, after the snow comes the deeper cold, perfect.

[Bristawl Si]

Well the slider is still sliding nicely

People need to re-asses their expectations.

It would be good to see but i'll wait for the Meto to jump aboard the snowtrain before raising my expectations.

[cold snap]

more epicness from ecm will it ever give this up.

Gfs or the ecm has got this seroiously wrong.

But which one? I want forget who made a mess of this saga

[Snowman.]

]

Real strong heights NE.

[Tamara]

So, the idea of the theme of consistency of the non consensus solution remains alive and well with the ECM tonight

[bluearmy]

now in the 'purely entertainment value' section of the run, note the little shortwave dropped into ne finland, lets see if the flow can advect it our way or if it will just stick there and prevent the russian ridge extending further west on this run.