Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[SMU]

I would call cool = Average.

Very mild - +9c

Mild - +6-+9c

Cool + 4-+6c

Cold +2- +4c

Very Cold sub 2c.

ice day sub zero!

Edited February 4, 2013 by Steve Murr

[chris55]

PPN associated with the slider at 144,

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

I would call cool = Average.

Very mild - +9c

Mild - +6-+9c

Cool + 4-+6c

Cold +2- +4c

Very Cold sub 2c.

ice day sub zero!

Loving the analysis Steve !!

The fact that only last week this looked odds against , to think where we are today , with all models now looking toward a nice scandi high , is a nice position to be in , in early feb.

[That ECM]

Considering GFS 06z is not thought off with much affection and also it's eastern bias. This run looks good and is another set in the direction of the ECM.

[weather eater]

Just want to pick up on and add to this. Dave is right especially the bit in bold.

BFTP

Indeed and that’s the potential in the ECM run in its latter frames the movement of the PV away from Greenland should be conducive for allowing the high to migrate NW.

[MR EXTREMES]

The cold pool over most of Europe is not as cold as you would expect. Simon Keeling (expert) tweeted:

weatherschool

The level of cold weather is questionable with the GFS, GEM & UKMO models nowehere near as chilly. 'Cool to cold' still better description.

04/02/2013 07:54

"Ice Days" at the moment is well OTT. Even the last cold spell, where I am, there was rarely a frost and daytime temps were 2-3c, enabling a slow thaw, and it is likely not to be as cold as that!

well down here on the south coast we had two full days recently were no thaw set in so must of been ice days here.

[Weathizard]

That russian high at around 132 is marching west at some speed, just bulldozing everything it its path it would seem. Will it be a major player like in december? Or can we use it to our advantage this time. Quite funny watching high pressure going North though from a N.Hem point of view there is high pressure attempting to smash the vortex from most angles.

[Jason M]

Yes that looks very good , the thing is anything can happen over the coming days/weeks , and a trough dropping down the eastern flank of the high looks very possible , the vortex is modelled to loosen its grip on the Canadian sector over the next 10 days so that opens an opportunity for the Siberian sector to play a part , and if it can drop into Russia then our friendly high can begin its retrogression toward Greenland .

I think as ever this cold spell is very much a developing situation and I'm sure things will change over the coming days, just good to see the easterly move into the more reliable time frames.

On a separate note I would like to apologise for my part to Jason for my attitude .

Cheers SSIB, :-)

Edited February 4, 2013 by Jason M

[TEITS]

Considering GFS 06z is not thought off with much affection and also it's eastern bias. This run looks good and is another set in the direction of the ECM.

I have more faith in the NOGAPS than the 06Z GFS!

I am however going to make a bold prediction and please don't shoot me if im wrong. The GFS suggests snow for my location on Sunday but in my opinion the front won't get anywhere near me. At this stage my punt is the W i.e Wales, W Midlands, SW, NW England who will see a snow event on Sunday. Those in the E will have to wait until the sliding LP sinks S before the snow showers arrive from the E. At this stage the SE appears at greatest threat from snow showers and also E Anglia. The risk lessening the further N you are.

Going to be a lot of members willing this LP E or W this week depending on location. However remember the further W the better regardless of your location even if it means you miss the frontal snow event.

[chris55]

Long way to go on this one yet!! Positioning of the slider undecided and will make all the difference!

North Westerly or Easterly.

[MR EXTREMES]

even the gfs 6z says -8 upper air not the worst run by far still cold.

[Ali1977]

-6 roller coaster

[Southender]

The 6z GFS is messy. Looks like it thinks about the slider, but doesn't know what to do with it.

You can see why most say ignore it.

But, it is another evolution.

As ever many more runs needed to get a handle on what may transpire.

[bluearmy]

http://www.yr.no/sted/Storbritannia/England/London/langtidsvarsel.html

Actual T2 for the ecm op run for london

[snowmadchrisuk]

I have more faith in the NOGAPS than the 06Z GFS!

I am however going to make a bold prediction and please don't shoot me if im wrong. The GFS suggests snow for my location on Sunday but in my opinion the front won't get anywhere near me. At this stage my punt is the W i.e Wales, W Midlands, SW, NW England who will see a snow event on Sunday. Those in the E will have to wait until the sliding LP sinks S before the snow showers arrive from the E. At this stage the SE appears at greatest threat from snow showers and also E Anglia. The risk lessening the further N you are.

Going to be a lot of members willing this LP E or W this week depending on location. However remember the further W the better regardless of your location even if it means you miss the frontal snow event.

There could well be a warm sector in the SW though , So could be Snow to rain ,

[Captain Shortwave]

You have to applaud the gfs for successfully pulling out a poor fi run throughout for the UK, the polar vortex looks in deep trouble though which is great news. Expect a lot better this afternoon from the 12z

[Southender]

I think the only thing we can be sure of, is there is going to be numerous disturbances running close to our shores, as we go through this week into next.

Whether one of those drops favourably NW to SE and sufficiently west enough, to plunge us into the freezer long term. Is still undecided.

But, in the short term we have the threat of wintry Ppn now and then almost anywhere. Especially on windward coasts and higher elevations.

Edited February 4, 2013 by Shrimper

[Interitus]

id ignore this run really looks totally odd but even on the last frame it still has most of the country in sub 8 upper air not the worst run but looks out of sorts compaired to the rest.

its -8 well the same blue over in germany has a symbol saying -8 so id say -8.

Thing is there is a big difference in the air temperatures from 850mb to the surface if the -8° air has come from the continent vs a couple of thousand miles of North Atlantic

[MR EXTREMES]

even the gfs 6z says -8 upper air not the worst run by far still cold.

can i ask doe this chart say -8 upper air please many thanks ?

and im only intrested in what the chart is showing please?

Edited February 4, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Southender]

can i ask doe this chart say -8 upper air please many thanks ?

and im only intrested in what the chart is showing please?

Nope that is showing -6c upper air for most.

[Stu_London]

Massive no to any easterly on the 06z, although does maintain a cool cyclonic theme.

I know some don't have faith in the 06z, but it's so far away from the ECM it's unreal.

Still a lot to resolve imho

[bobbydog]

well, at least from an IMBY perspective, as good as some of these charts are, i'm not seeing anything other than tentative possibilities of some wintry weather over the next week or so. nothing epic. at this range, there's too much margin for error in some fragile set-ups to be confident of anything yet.

[MR EXTREMES]

can i ask doe this chart say -8 upper air please many thanks ?

and im only intrested in what the chart is showing please?

ah i see sorry many thanks to those who pointed this out for me.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z is back into progressive mode after stuttering and stalling on the 00z but at least bringing a very cold FI with slider lows and entrenched cold air covering the uk, the 6z says to hell with that, let's have a less cold zonal pattern instead, even the 00z showed an eastward bias but the 6z pushes the pattern even further east. So are we really any clearer about the prospects from friday onwards? the bbc forecast is for rain, sleet and snow to be pushing east across the uk during friday and an unsettled weekend with a wintry mix but not especially cold, the ecm however, shows a much colder pattern established in that timeframe so anything coming out of the sky would be snow.

Edited February 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[bluearmy]

We now arrive at the juncture where due to the very evident split in the ecm ens after approx a week, the gefs temps week 2 show a lower mean than the ecm suite. ecm ens mean and naefs mean maxes look very similar through week 2. there remains much uncertainty beyond the early part of next week on the nwp. we just require that russian ridge to bulldoze west, much as did at a similar timescale last year.