Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

[DEYS(Kent)]

ECM and UKMO agree at 144. That's a start.

[MR EXTREMES]

true battle is the alantic gonna blast through we might end up with southerlies.

still cold but flabby pressure.

Edited February 4, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[swfc]

cold air in place at 192 hours and maybe a snow event via slider low up to 240 hrs

[MR EXTREMES]

true battle is the alantic gonna blast through we might end up with southerlies.

still cold but flabby pressure.

but if we can get that low to slide under its possible we would get a second pulse of cold air across the country.

t216 cold air embedded nice now slider please please ....

Edited February 4, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[MR EXTREMES]

but if we can get that low to slide under its possible we would get a second pulse of cold air across the country.

t216 cold air embedded nice now slider please please ....

and sorry to fill up the model thread but the whole country is under -6 to -8 air in 72 hrs and it stay like that and gets colder through nearly the entire run impressive.

then finally cold retreats back east with a possible slider and a reload but hard to call so far into fi.

Edited February 4, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[swfc]

not quite there at 240 hrs but plenty of time at that range.good set of runs this morning and nothing to complain about for me

[Blizzardof82]

ECM _{keeps to the script that is 7 runs in a row now,} UKMO _{similar at 144 overall another good morning for coldies.}

[Jason M]

disagree -12 uppers waiting out in the end. -8 uppers over us by 168h. Great run

As is your right :-)

240 charts illustrate my concern. The Synoptics at this stage still look good

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

The cold spell is already on its way out though as whilst another slider may be in the offing, the cold tap was turned off several days earlier by the orientation of the high and our supply is running out. In jan this isn't such a problem, but by mid feb you need a cold feed to sustain a spell.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

It looks like a decent cold spell coming up. Nothing severe but a standard winter cold spell is not to be sniffed at.

Jason

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs last frame sw after sw all runing down the north sea now if we could get these futher west i think the gfs would be nice run to.

Edited February 4, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Ian Brown]

I thought this mornings runs might be decent when I saw no post from (un) Happy Days !

A positive start to the day as we see another lurch back from the GFS from it's desire to bulldoze the jet and Azores High through. You still wouldn't want to be forecasting Friday or beyond at this stage but better signs of staying on the cold side of the PFJ for longer this morning.

[Dave Kightley]

Don't need -12 uppers to get ice days like in Jan. So similar is well... GEFS ens are very good is well throughout with not many mild runs.

[Jason M]

Don't need -12 uppers to get ice days like in Jan. So similar is well... GEFS ens are very good is well throughout with not many mild runs.

Disagree, uppers of circa -8 will not give ice days in feb, unless snow on the ground and persistent cloud cover. In late Dec and Jan its a different matter.

This looks like being a standard winter cold spell IMHO. Anyone expecting blizzards and blowing powder snow is likely to be disappointed. I'd imagine come the time were looking at plus 2c in the day across many areas.

Is it worth having? Yes. Will it be a notable cold spell? Unlikely IMHO. Hence I suspect why this thread isn't going mad with posts at the moment.

Jason

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Good morning UKMO.....that should make some happier on here. Re the ECM t240, the block holds and for my money watch the runs as it reasserts if indeed subsides at all. Atlantic will play a part ahead for sure, but cold outlook strengthens. C'est la vie!

BFTP

[Craigers]

The Upper temps will be upgraded as it gets closer in the time frame. does this for every cold spell when the uppers don't look that good. Im just happy the gfs

is slowly getting closer to the ECM trend and that the UKMO is coming on board now! great charts for me this morning!

[MR EXTREMES]

Disagree, uppers of circa -8 will not give ice days in feb, unless snow on the ground and persistent cloud cover. In late Dec and Jan its a different matter.

This looks like being a standard winter cold spell IMHO. Anyone expecting blizzards and blowing powder snow is likely to be disappointed. I'd imagine come the time were looking at plus 2c in the day across many areas.

Is it worth having? Yes. Will it be a notable cold spell? Unlikely IMHO. Hence I suspect why this thread isn't going mad with posts at the moment.

Jason

well i was under the impression that feb is the coldest month but still -8 cant be sniffed at by a long shot and there will be lying snow so ice days are very likely indeed.

yeah well be nice to have some deeper thoughts from you on this as u seem confident it wont be a good cold spell if your on about length fair enough who knows but depth of cold is excellent across the country but its not notable.

Edited February 4, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Nick F]

So, the GFS finally submits to the slider, but has to be awkward by having the low slide SE further east. GFS option still wraps cold T850s from the NW on the western flank, but its much more messy having the warm sector involved.

UKMO slightly further east with the slider low than ECM, so this middle ground could be more likely.

ECM is superb throughout, especially Mon 11th with the cold easterly flow with -10C 850s grazing the east, but is it too far west with the slider and the block?

Edited February 4, 2013 by Nick F

[Guest bjaykent]

Good morning all,

I know that I posted jet track last night as a bit of a laugh showing the eyes but interesting to compare with this mornings run, jet significantly further south across the Atlantic

[MR EXTREMES]

Good morning all,

I know that I posted jet track last night as a bit of a laugh showing the eyes but interesting to compare with this mornings run, jet significantly further south across the Atlantic

infact thats a good spot and all jokes aside its a very promising jet chart.

[MR EXTREMES]

So, the GFS finally submits to the slider, but has to be awkward by having the low slide SE further east. GFS option still wraps cold T850s from the NW on the western flank, but its much more messy having the warm sector involved.

UKMO slightly further east with the slider low than ECM, so this middle ground could be more likely.

ECM is superb throughout, especially Mon 11th with the cold easterly flow with -10C 850s grazing the east, but is it too far west with the slider and the block?

its very possible like u say that it could be a middle ground situation but that would still mean cold how cold who knows but they all seem they favour below average temps for awhile atleast with blocking to our north east its also possible that it might take a second bite and perhaps end feb on a snowy high.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

As is your right :-)

240 charts illustrate my concern. The Synoptics at this stage still look good

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

The cold spell is already on its way out though as whilst another slider may be in the offing, the cold tap was turned off several days earlier by the orientation of the high and our supply is running out. In jan this isn't such a problem, but by mid feb you need a cold feed to sustain a spell.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

It looks like a decent cold spell coming up. Nothing severe but a standard winter cold spell is not to be sniffed at.

Jason

I have to reply to this,

If you actually read the forum carefully and listen to the more experienced ones it was only John Holmes yesterday that gave a very well explanation on why absolutely know one should be looking at uppers outside the 72hr range because the DO change from run to run.

Looks at the bigger picture , look at the Synoptics .

Also im sorry but it's nonsense the things you say, we have -10 850's over us by the wkend m how on earth anyone can say thats not deep cold is beyond me ? This time of year Europe is very cold, and believe me the uppers will be very cold from the continent .

I stated yesterday that 2005 was a rare event because Europe had an unusually mild spell infact mild winter, which is why the uppers wasn't there. This year is very different .

These Synoptics are perfect this year for a very cold outbreak, why look at charts that's 200 hours away when we have so much cold and snowy weather inside 144 hrs ?

[nick sussex]

NOAA go for a blended solution of the ECM/UKMO upstream in the eastern USA. They didn't think much of either the GFS or GEM which is good news.

[Ian Brown]

Disagree, uppers of circa -8 will not give ice days in feb, unless snow on the ground and persistent cloud cover. In late Dec and Jan its a different matter.

This looks like being a standard winter cold spell IMHO. Anyone expecting blizzards and blowing powder snow is likely to be disappointed. I'd imagine come the time were looking at plus 2c in the day across many areas.

Is it worth having? Yes. Will it be a notable cold spell? Unlikely IMHO. Hence I suspect why this thread isn't going mad with posts at the moment.

Jason

I think it's really late Feb from past experience when the diurnal factor becomes to come into play, but I don't think we are looking anyway at very cold uppers and a biting easterly, although I wouldn't completely rule it out.

[oldsnowywizard]

Disagree, uppers of circa -8 will not give ice days in feb, unless snow on the ground and persistent cloud cover. In late Dec and Jan its a different matter.

This looks like being a standard winter cold spell IMHO. Anyone expecting blizzards and blowing powder snow is likely to be disappointed. I'd imagine come the time were looking at plus 2c in the day across many areas.

Is it worth having? Yes. Will it be a notable cold spell? Unlikely IMHO. Hence I suspect why this thread isn't going mad with posts at the moment.

Jason

Jason what are you on about ? February is the coldest winter month in terms of potential.You don't need -12s to have ice days in the UK . IMO you are saying this to get responses. Well done you have my attention ! -6/7most of the time will deliver snow and temps hovering around 0.. ( of course exceptions can occur such as if the air is coming from the continent you can get away with lower 850s)

Models looking good .. Good snow potential in Switzerland as well for the next 10 days :-)

[phil nw.]

Encouraging 00z runs for prolonging the cold spell beyond this week.

All eyes on that slider low around t144hrs-UKMO has the middle way between the ECM(further west) and GFS(east)which would be ok as it would still pull the cold from the east towards the UK.

Ideally we would prefer the ECM as it just gives us a little more leeway but a decent trend this morning and you wouldn`t bet against the GFS showing another step west with the pattern in future runs the way it`s last 2 or 3 runs have gone.

Edited February 4, 2013 by phil nw.

[MR EXTREMES]

I think it's really late Feb from past experience when the diurnal factor becomes to come into play, but I don't think we are looking anyway at very cold uppers and a biting easterly, although I wouldn't completely rule it out.

no i was thinking that i think the ukmo ecm jma ect ect are wrong there must be some missing data and u can get ice days in march not common but never say never in the weather world.

its fine though stick to the gfs its really done well this winter.

nice to see the ukmo trending towards the ecm.