Winter Model Discussion 18Z 5/2/13 onwards.

[Snowman.]

Hmm ECM rolling out and not a post in 10mins?

Is everyone hiding behind the sofa or something?

[bluearmy]

ecm T72 compared to ecm T96 yesterday - the -4c isotherm has gone east from the irish sea to only now encompass east anglia. thats the eastward shift in 24 hours summed up. a westward correction is feasible but as we approach T0, corrections become harder to achieve. the T96 FAX will definitely not look like the T120 from yesterday

[ChartViewer]

ECM T120....BETTER

Edited February 6, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Tim Bland]

Further corrections from the ECM and for now at least we have more model harmony. Would love to get a flight to New York, about to get 30" of snow in places and thunder snow! should be on the news in the next few days. Hopefully we can see a few corrections south and west of this low so we don't have to drive to the hills on sun for snow men! As per above from ecm perhaps we could have a snow, rain, snow event ESP in the south Mon morning?

Edited February 6, 2013 by Tim Bland

[on the coast]

Lovely chart at 120. Cold and snowy.

[chris55]

Pertty good 120 from ECM, eastward correction initially looks like rain for most but the 120 is interesting, a really difficult forecast for snowfall!

[shaky]

Ecmwf better than ukmo!!cold air 50 to 100 miles west compared to ukmo at 72-96 hours!!which means maybe more of central england joins into the fun of being snowed in!!ðŸ˜Beauty of a 120 hour chart!!

Edited February 6, 2013 by shaky

[bobbydog]

this lot will do me-

if an extended spell is not on the cards, then if we get a couple of belter days out of that lot, it'll do me. rather that than a chilly 2 weeks of feeble wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

t144 the cold continues

Edited February 6, 2013 by Gavin.

[ChartViewer]

Well well not over yet at t144

[Tim Bland]

GFS viewed in 3hr frames perhaps gives a better indication of rain turning to snow sun night into Monday. ECM slightly better in giving widespread snow to the south on Monday as the low clears south. Then we have the potential for potent snow showers ESP for the east / Se

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=105&mode=2&mode3h=1

[Stuie]

The low @120 is much further east. Very interesting for Anglia after all with potential heavy precipitation.

[MR EXTREMES]

is the next charts going to see heights around greenland!!!!

[goosey007]

this lot will do me-

if an extended spell is not on the cards, then if we get a couple of belter days out of that lot, it'll do me. rather that than a chilly 2 weeks of feeble wintry showers

most sensible post i have read all afternoon..charts are defo going the right direction

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Azores high trying to say hi!

[phil nw.]

It looks like all the models are finally homing in together on the evolution out to around T120-144hrs with the track of the low down and across the UK.

Very difficult call where the snow will be-could be rain to snow for some when the colder air comes back west as the centre of the low slips SE.

Still time for further minor adjustments but the inevitable middle ground looks the way forward.

[Summer Sun]

The Azores is trying to make an appearance at t168

The cold slowly shifts east

[snowice]

I bet SM will be happy with the ECM!were do we go from here ukmo gfs not in agreement?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

ECM looks like ukmo would do at 168h IMO,the godforsaken northern arm will not give in this winter!

[MR EXTREMES]

jma looks good right through.

[Ian Brown]

I bet SM will be happy with the ECM!were do we go from here ukmo gfs not in agreement?

I don't think he will be - rain on Sunday clearing South and perhaps turning to snow on the back edge - then 1 very cold dry day followed by another less dry day followed by the Atlantic.

[cooling climate]

Much stronger looking high on the t168 chart still very cold over much of the

country with another distruption s/e by t192 I would have thought.

[Roger J Smith]

Please note that I edited my earlier post about the Sunday-Monday pattern potential, as the trigger for the slider was not clearly identified. The strong New England low would interact with the weaker low currently passing Newfoundland and that one would be the slider, the New England low would according to the ECM output get absorbed into the frontal zone around Tuesday and could become a second slider perhaps, or just wiped out by the building heights. In any case, I don't have much confidence in model output past Monday at this stage because whenever very cold air and snow cover develop over southeast England there is often a tendency for that to hold on for much longer than models anticipate, until the Atlantic becomes strong enough to push right past the block, and I suspect that we will enter a period of false warming scenarios around days 6-8 on future model runs. In this developing pattern I think the rain-snow line will be determined by -7 C 850s and 522 dm thicknesses, give or take 1 deg and 3 dm. The deeper you get into the cold spell, the more feedback from the snow-covered surface and patterns that could be near average without snow cover then become -3 to -5 anomaly patterns.

[Tom Jarvis]

jma looks good right through.

What is the cma showing it was showing the beast from the east this morning what is it showing now?????

[MR EXTREMES]

Much stronger looking high on the t168 chart still very cold over much of the

country with another distruption s/e by t192 I would have thought.

i agree se tracking short wave second bite game on.