South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 6th February 2013>

[crazy_diamond]

You know, being immobilised in bed with flu has its recompense! I can see the loveliest baby blue sky streaked with golden clouds. Apparently it is darn cold out there, but I've got an internal furnace keeping my temperature positively tropical!!

CD

[Meggy]

You know, being immobilised in bed with flu has its recompense! I can see the loveliest baby blue sky streaked with golden clouds. Apparently it is darn cold out there, but I've got an internal furnace keeping my temperature positively tropical!!

CD

Hi CD

Hope you feel better soon. I'm about to set out to walk to work in the frost. My boss thinks I'm mad for liking cold weather!

Meggy

[Coast]

OK, I've just has a brief look at some model charts and the MOD thread and I now have a definitive answer this morning to the question of snow or Wintry precipitation from Sunday onwards:

Anything might happen....

Edited February 8, 2013 by Coast

[VillagePlank]

GFS 00z looks like rain for much of the country,

with only the far North seeing snow. Perhaps marginal sleet outside the 6degC zone? I'm tempted to ignore this run given current BBC and MetO output this morning.

[Jimmyh]

This is without doubt he most obsessed weather winter ever. I can't remember 09 or 10 being this bad will it won't oh computer models hey hmmm remember 87 & 91 much less power in the computers then lol no Internet an still one of the best snow set ups in my lifetime only slightly comparable with 09

[crazy_diamond]

Hi CD

Hope you feel better soon. I'm about to set out to walk to work in the frost. My boss thinks I'm mad for liking cold weather!

Meggy

Aw, thank you Meggy!

I am a firm believer in Billy Connolly's philosophy, it's never the wrong weather, its the wrong clothes! You got the kit, you like the weather!

CD

[Nick F]

Anything might happen....

Indeed, still time for the track of the low to change Sunday/early Monday, though the models this morning have shifted the colder air further north. Even the fax has shifted the 528dam line further north and east - with the SE the wrong side of marginal on Sunday.

Updated fax for Sunday 12z (T+60):

Previous fax chart for Sunday 12z (T+72):

[Snowman31]

This is from the model thread, not too bad

[scrat]

Morning.....and what a beautiful one it is. Stunning sun rise, mist in the valley and snow covering grass, fences and roof tops. Must have been a sharp frost too as the branches on the trees are coated too. Love, love, love this to wake up to . Off to do a snow dance x

[Nikkib74]

I haven't looked at any models, data or applicable threads since yesterday afternoon, dare I do so or just wait for Sunday and whatever happens?

... As if you could wait

[swash]

Oh dear, looking at those Fax charts, looks like the brolly will be needed rather than the snow boots, curses!

[Coast]

Indeed, still time for the track of the low to change Sunday/early Monday, though the models this morning have shifted the colder air further north.

Of the current hi-res models I've just looked at (still not quite in range) Only NAE is encouraging if you want a bit of snow around here:

This is from the model thread, not too bad

She'll do for an oldie!! :lol:

... As if you could wait

[Nikkib74]

OK, I've just has a brief look at some model charts and the MOD thread and I now have a definitive answer this morning to the question of snow or Wintry precipitation from Sunday onwards:

Anything might happen....

Oh! I rest my case ;-)

Lovely, crisp and sunny this morning. Won't be making any snow assumptions, just lots of fingers and toes crossing for me this time.

[Coast]

just lots of fingers and toes crossing for me this time.

More than the usual set of 10 of each??

[Steve C]

More than the usual set of 10 of each??

If you came from Brightlingsea, yes. (sorry anyone from Brightlingsea )

[Hammer]

With modified METO last night seemingly increasing risk of snow seemingly against ECM and GFS raw output.

Are we now saying the modified output might be tweaked a little more in favour of GFS and ECM output now, with snow risk reduced for us.

Sounds still all a bit confused. Maybe we have to much data now?

[Great Plum]

Morning... -0.1c here with a dew of -1 here in Reigate... The car was iced solid this morning... Pavements are very icy!

[Coast]

Sounds still all a bit confused. Maybe we have to much data now?

Or just too much expectation? :winky:

[VillagePlank]

Gross amounts uncertainty with Sun/Mon low crossing the UK. This LP won't even form until tomorrow, so I would take all NWP output with a pinch of salt. I'm hopeful that the SE will see snow since the published forecasts clearly are not the same as raw output forecasts so have been modified by experts.

[Methuselah]

Sleet falling straight onto frozen glaze-covered ground!

[Steve C]

Gross amounts uncertainty with Sun/Mon low crossing the UK. This LP won't even form until tomorrow, so I would take all NWP output with a pinch of salt. I'm hopeful that the SE will see snow since the published forecasts clearly are not the same as raw output forecasts so have been modified by experts.

It feels so marginal, it might go all the way to nowcasting.

Still, nowcasting isn't all that far away and I'll enjoy the weekend before it happens anyway.

Sleet falling straight onto frozen glaze-covered ground!

Glad I'm not driving where you are then!

Edited February 8, 2013 by Steve C

[Stevieray1]

Morning everyone! Lovely sunshine here this morning although very chilly.

Still lots of uncertainty about the snow this weekend then?

OK, I've just has a brief look at some model charts and the MOD thread and I now have a definitive answer this morning to the question of snow or Wintry precipitation from Sunday onwards:

Anything might happen....

[Snow Obsession]

So it's looking horribly marginal for us on Sunday. However, Sunday is my husband's birthday and last year it snowed in bucketloads on my birthday (4th Feb) so my hopes are all hanging on another birthday snow event!

[Hammer]

Or just too much expectation? :winky:

Generally I try to stay open minded, but if 12 hours ago modified output increases risk and then reduces it this morning. I am wondering if wealth of data sometimes complicates things.

[Don]

Well, I think I've seen enough now not to expect any snow this coming weekend or Monday! Everything is trending in the wrong direction and will probably continue to do so.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Don