wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[andymusic]

SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW - SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW - SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW - SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW -

[Bonjangle]

SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW - SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW - SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW - SNOW SNOW SNOW SNOW -

Where !! Mr Ramper .... not next week only dry and some wintry shower's ... keep to the music Andy ... you dont half Ramp things up !!

I aint going for any of it , dry,and wet at times with sunny spells and some sleet, hail, and wet snow showers ... hurry up spring

[andymusic]

Then the snow moves down sunday morning and throughout sunday into Monday and Tuesday - ICE DAYS!

latest NAE for sunday morning

As usual with snowy set ups the models are all over the place trying to puzzle out where and when the snow/cold might fall - so once again - just keep your eyes on radar and head out of the window come saturday night/sunday morning!

Edited March 8, 2013 by andymusic

[dingdong]

Agree andy, although I think Sunday night/Monday morning is the one for us

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=72&mode=0

Edited March 8, 2013 by dingdong

[andymusic]

Agree andy, although I think Sunday night/Monday morning is the one for us

http://www.meteociel...?&ech=72&mode=0

if you've noticed the situation is changing model ouput by model output - so this could improve drastically or diminish drastically - but I have a feeling one way or another we are gonna get a good dumping somewhere

[keithlucky]

if you've noticed the situation is changing model ouput by model output - so this could improve drastically or diminish drastically - but I have a feeling one way or another we are gonna get a good dumping somewhere

More possiblities of general snow Monday into Tuesday as frontal snow tries to push North from the bay of biscay ,fascinating weather watching for the next few days ,Expecting met weather warnings a plenty over the weekend as winter bites back!

[Trickster]

Still think the persistent snow will stay south of the Severn on Monday. I fear we may even be stuck under the frontal blanket of cloud with nothing falling and no sunshine to cause convection

[CRACKPOT]

Still think the persistent snow will stay south of the Severn on Monday. I fear we may even be stuck under the frontal blanket of cloud with nothing falling and no sunshine to cause convection

Hi Guys,

Looks like the majority of Wales are going to miss out on the precipitation from the latest updates.

Hope an upgrade puts us into the firing line but needs toes and fingers crossed!

JK

[andymusic]

The models are struggling with where the cold and where this low will actually end up - a little north - a little south - who knows - just watch how this one develops - it could be amazing for Wales - just wait and see - snow snow snow snow

[Jayfromcardiff]

Can't see much snow here, hope it does though.

[welshgritter]

this weather is Barney, I mean Barmy..........

I think ill be gritting Sunday night until Tuesday night and then it will pick back up again.

[virtualsphere]

Two areas to watch out for on Sunday. The front moving down from the north is forecast by both NMM and NAE to be largely of snow and positioned on current charts to be over North - Mid Wales on Sunday AM but with only light precipitation. Both NMM and NAE have precipitation fading over mid-Wales at 12:00 Sunday which is currently as far out as the charts go.

There's also the front associated with the low currently modelled as moving into northern parts of France in the same period which is shown at the moment over SW England on Sunday morning. NMM has this further north than NAE with precipitation touching SE Wales by 12:00 Sunday. This is showing as rain on both models at mid-day Sunday, but the interesting period is still too far out at present - GFS 12Z shows the front pushing further north moving into Wales and merging with the dying front, turning to snow by 9pm Sunday.

Still uncertainty over the position of these features (especially the low to the South) and so hard to say as yet which areas are most likely to see a covering come Monday morning.

Edit: I should add that ECM and UKMO don't show the snow to be as far south as the GFS, and those of you who dare to venture into the model thread will know Ian F has just posted that UKMO and UK4 models currently expect the M4 to be the northern extent of the front come Monday.

Edited March 8, 2013 by virtualsphere

[J10]

This evening's NAE run will cover the period up to 18Hz Sunday, will this be the last snow potential event ever to be modelled by NAE

Edited March 8, 2013 by Jackone

[andymusic]

Gonna get fairly wild with the wind whipping around that low pressure too - could lead to temporary blizzards if this hits us square on - gonna be very interesting sunday night into monday me thinks!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Snow is coming!!!!! Stock up on your supplies it could get nasty!!!

[Panayiotis]

Snow is coming!!!!! Stock up on your supplies it could get nasty!!!

Ramp? But yes i am expecting snow for South Wales, possibly more than 5cm can be reached somewhere in our region.If I were to puts bets on it I would say 2-5cm for the South. Edited March 8, 2013 by Panayiotis

[andymusic]

Gonna be an interesting few days of weather and the cold is gonna dig in - giving a few ice days - amazing for the month of March!

Tickets for the Whitney Houston Tribute Show are now selling fast - please don't miss out - 14th march 2013 @ The Coal Exchange, Cardiff - a beautiful venue in Cardiff Bay - ring the ticket line - * (and speak to Andymusic - he'll even give you a FREE update forecast on the snow lol)) and tickets are now priced at only £12 inc booking fee!

If you can't make it to the show - perhaps you'd like to make a small donation to the Renal Transplant charity instead - this you can do via the link below - there is a Paypal button just below the poster - you can make a donation of your choosing - (just put the amount you'd like to give in the "item price" box in pounds and pence ie £10.50 - 10.50) - thanking you in advance

http://www.lizastarlight.com/whitneyhoustontribute.htm

[J10]

Precipitation further north on the GFS this evening, but as such so is the cold air. If GFS is right Rain to snow seems possible , but so many option remain available even at this stage.

[bradymk]

Hi all, any shift north is good for us. It should not shift far enough north that the air is not cold enough so basically any shift north is a good one. GFS 18z is great for us in Cymru. This was always going to be a bitterly cold spell however until now I have been thinking that it would be bone dry. However given uncertainties after today, I would not rule out some snow now and it could be quite a bit for some lucky places. Hopefully we will have our first proper snow of the winter here (even though it is now spring). Also, GFS 18z ENS show the shift north well, a good spell of snow for South Wales at least, lets hope this continues. NAE still not as keen.

Edited March 8, 2013 by bradythemole

[keithlucky]

Latest GFS snow smack bang on Wales no further North please

[andymusic]

Latest GFS snow smack bang on Wales no further North please

This is gonna be a nowcast situation - the models are all over the place on this one - typical snow scenario - they never quite know what it's gonna do - so radar - and heads out of the window or lampost watching! SIMPLES

[keithlucky]

This is gonna be a nowcast situation - the models are all over the place on this one - typical snow scenario - they never quite know what it's gonna do - so radar - and heads out of the window or lampost watching! SIMPLES

If we get this Gfs would be perfect for Wales blizzards stalling front with gale force winds!

[andymusic]

LATEST NAE

[Welsh_Weather]

IMO South Wales will miss out on anything significant as these depressions are always modelled too deep and the weaker the depression is the further south it will be. We may have a few outbreaks of light snow overnight into Monday morning from anything that breaks off the main front. All I can see from this is local dustings for some. Hope I'm wrong though, but past experiences tell me I won't be.

[bradymk]

LATEST NAE

Have a look at the precip charts, those rainfall/snowfall charts basically just show what is likely to fall. Use them together with precip charts to get a better detailed of where the precip is. The precip charts show hardly anything on Wales.