wales - cymru Wales (Cymru) Regional Discussion 7th Februaury 2013, 12z onwards

[CRACKPOT]

IMO South Wales will miss out on anything significant as these depressions are always modelled too deep and the weaker the depression is the further south it will be. We may have a few outbreaks of light snow overnight into Monday morning from anything that breaks off the main front. All I can see from this is local dustings for some. Hope I'm wrong though, but past experiences tell me I won't be.

I agree and that is what I posted yesterday. Although what has happened in the past has no real bearing on what is coming up - it does realistically because the 'pattern' is repeated - and they follow the same track as previous.

We always get a more southern progression closer to time and that would mean a lot more of the South of England will also be missing out. I hope it has more of a northerly push than previous - but not too much (but enough!) because we would then have milder air mixing in and snow would become increasingly marginal.

Still a long way to go and upgrades can still happen even within 12 hours.

JK

[bradymk]

I agree and that is what I posted yesterday. Although what has happened in the past has no real bearing on what is coming up - it does realistically because the 'pattern' is repeated - and they follow the same track as previous.

We always get a more southern progression closer to time and that would mean a lot more of the South of England will also be missing out. I hope it has more of a northerly push than previous - but not too much (but enough!) because we would then have milder air mixing in and snow would become increasingly marginal.

Still a long way to go and upgrades can still happen even within 12 hours.

JK

Yes small margins JK, a small shift in relative terms, probably 50/100 miles north. We are going to have to wait till tomorow at the earliest I feel and with the steep gradient along the front combined with a disagreement in SLP for the low pressure is causing model disagreements. Lower the pressure, further North and vice versa. Still remarkable that we have -14c uppers across the country come Monday, and if you look back at the archives, something that has probably not occured in Mid March before. Personally, I think the line will be approx Bristol southwards and may just miss S Wales coast but if you look at GEM, that shows what could happen.

[Welsh_Weather]

I agree and that is what I posted yesterday. Although what has happened in the past has no real bearing on what is coming up - it does realistically because the 'pattern' is repeated - and they follow the same track as previous.

We always get a more southern progression closer to time and that would mean a lot more of the South of England will also be missing out. I hope it has more of a northerly push than previous - but not too much (but enough!) because we would then have milder air mixing in and snow would become increasingly marginal.

Still a long way to go and upgrades can still happen even within 12 hours.

JK

Sorry didn't see your post from yesterday but agree about southern England too, I just posted a similar message in the model discussion saying anything significant will only affect the far south west IMO. I know past experiences have no bearing on what happens but I guess in these situations that's sometimes all we have got. There have been occasions when depressions have deepened and taken a much more northerly track, one notable occasion was a week before Christmas 1999 when we had about 8 inches, that was only picked up 2-3 hours before the event.

I also agree about the margins on this are very fine as there's only 50-100 miles of the uppers going from -12 to above 0. I think now casting is going to be coming into force big time on this occasion(like most in this country).

[andymusic]

Have a look at the precip charts, those rainfall/snowfall charts basically just show what is likely to fall. Use them together with precip charts to get a better detailed of where the precip is. The precip charts show hardly anything on Wales.

don't be despondent - anything can happen even at this range - there have been some classic cock ups in the past with forecasts like this - we'll just have to wait and see

[J10]

Some comments above that low pressure systems always being weaker than forecast that is not really true.

It is not the case that they are always pass south, as a prime example in Feb 07, we had a a direct hit. Jan this year also had us as a direct hit. albeit with a slightly different pattern. Of course there have been occasions when it has remained too far south, but also other occasions when it has been too far north, and Northern England has had the snow, and we have been in the mild sector indeed this has happened this year as well.

The bottom line being there is often a narrow sweet spot in situations like this between the rain zone, the snow zone and the dry zone. At this stage, we may get a little snow on Sunday, but the main frontal band on Monday does look like missing us to the south.

But for people to say this always happens is not the case.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Jackone

[keithlucky]

Close but no Cigar? 50 miles North that all it takes

[bradymk]

don't be despondent - anything can happen even at this range - there have been some classic cock ups in the past with forecasts like this - we'll just have to wait and see

I am not being despondent - I am aware of how wrong models can get it and this is a tricky one again for the models and forecasters but currently the main threat of snow is to the south of us. I am commenting on what models currently show. In my opinion, a shift north is totally feasible and this may occur on future runs but for the time being, cloudy and dry for most of Wales apart from some snow that is currently in NE England that is moving NE to SW which will bring a period of snow to north east Wales tomorrow lunchtime. This then fizzles out as it comes into mid wales so some flurries possible for a time but nothing significant. Lets hope the 12z suite show a shift north.

[Buriedundersnow]

good luck on your snow hunt hopefully the heavy snow will make it to u lot and hopefully will make up a bit for us going to beat u at the rugby today lol

[Panayiotis]

good luck on your snow hunt hopefully the heavy snow will make it to u lot and hopefully will make up a bit for us going to beat u at the rugby today lol

Thanks but hopefully its a win win situation for us

[Buriedundersnow]

Thanks but hopefully its a win win situation for us

it should be a cracking match u's have a really good team and we are full of confidence with recent victorys so could really go any way and i think it will be a close run thing

[andymusic]

latest nae

But it's gonna get mighty cold

[soupsurfer7]

Looks like France is going to get the snow then?

[andymusic]

Looks like France is going to get the snow then?

still not quite a done deal yet - but the low looks like it might dive south - but sometimes these lows can do weird and wonderful things!

[mikeocarroll]

Looks like France is going to get the snow then?

Mostly rain for northern France I would think on the southern side of the low. Lots of snow in the Channel, Isle of Wight for example might get a fair bit (not for this first time this winter/spring).

Looks like all areas of Wales will see some light snow flurries over the next couple of days but highly unlikely to see significant accumulations. Think channel low is a red herring, we shoud be more interested in showers from the east coast or instability developing bringing more precip to Wales. even in best case though we're not going to see masses of snow.

Interesting weather for March and is going to feel strange after mildish week.

[J10]

The main thing does seem to be the unusually cold 850Hpa temps, currently forecast to touch -13c for parts of Wales, cold for any time of year, but very unusual for the 2nd third of March.

[A_T]

A few flakes falling here - nothing really though

[andymusic]

Very strange on radar right now - with the two fronts north and south - and we're the sandwhich filling in the middle as they approach one another - a rather unique sort of set up - but will it deliver the goods today or tomoz - we shall see - still speculation as to where the front in the south will end up - and how much in the way of snow showers will pump across from the north east to Wales? questions questions - we'll know the answers soon enough

[A_T]

Snow getting a bit heavier here - blowing in on the NE wind. Not settling though.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Snow falling but not settling.

Temp :+1.3c (trend falling)

DP : 1.0c

RH :98%

Wind : 6mph NE

Wind chill : -1.5c

Baro : 1008mb

[andymusic]

latest nae looking a tad better today

And it's not far away their - just a few miles further north and bingo - this is a changing situation folks

[J10]

Certainly the radar a bit further north than the models suggested, still may mean nothing to us though.

[andymusic]

Tomasz Schafernaker â€@Schafernaker

@fergieweather @carlharlott latest computer model shifts snow slightly north. Could be further north still in reality. watching this space.

latest met office info

A low pressure system moving up from the Atlantic will come up against the influx of cold air from the north, bringing persistent sleet and snow. At the same time winds will increase, with gusts of 50-60 MPH on coasts and hills. There remains uncertainty about how far north the snow will spread, along with the extent of snow showers in the east.

Edited March 10, 2013 by andymusic

[mikeocarroll]

Certainly the radar a bit further north than the models suggested, still may mean nothing to us though.

Trouble is the weak front from the north is also further north than forecast, meaning that 1) precip from the northern front has stalled over the midlands rather than progressing into Wales, wouldn't have been a lot anyway, but perhaps our best chance of seeing some snow falling and; 2) cold air hasn't penetrated as far south as quickly as forecast, so even if the southern front does make landfall it will be rain; and 3) the northern front needs to clear before convective precip can start to reach us from the english east coast.

So all in all chances of snow today reduced though we should still see some flakes later I hope.

[andymusic]

Trouble is the weak front from the north is also further north than forecast, meaning that 1) precip from the northern front has stalled over the midlands rather than progressing into Wales, wouldn't have been a lot anyway, but perhaps our best chance of seeing some snow falling and; 2) cold air hasn't penetrated as far south as quickly as forecast, so even if the southern front does make landfall it will be rain; and 3) the northern front needs to clear before convective precip can start to reach us from the english east coast.

So all in all chances of snow today reduced though we should still see some flakes later I hope.

point two - IT'S DEFO COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW UP HERE MIKEY - I let the dogs out this morning and the wind chill was horrendous! LOL

point one - the two systems may sort of collide and pep each other up and the system in the south - no one knows right now quite where that's gonna end up

point three - the snow showers are progged to get to us - but again this is a very fluid situation - just watch it develop - there could still be a few surprises in store yet

Edited March 10, 2013 by andymusic

[Herefordweather]

I think areas like Cardiff could still be hit by this snow from the south....