winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[snowhope]

I think some people forget just how expansive the midlands are, some saying snow event for the midland can be misleading. Half of the midlands on the current output would still see a marginal/non snow event. Need further shifts south and west over coming days for this to include the whole of the region. Would be nice for once not to have to ride the rollercoaster right up until the day especially with some of the ppn totals showing... ahh for an all snow event somewhere is likely to get pasted but where will it be

[Panayiotis]

Looking better for the south at 72hours on the ECM.

[SMU]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

ECM 72-

Much of a much ness-

Steve

[chris55]

Met office is now showing heavy snow to my area from 15,00hrs Sunday is was showing as rain/sleet 2 hours ago. Wonder what charts they have seen for this

Thats interesting after reading Steves post, I have now gone from rain to sleet......trends and all that! (based on UKMO)

[shaky]

Met office APPS, Links & 5 days update twice a day after the UKMO Raw data 00z & 12z-(IIRC)

so thats whys its changed-

12z ECM @ 48 V UKMO 48

ECM

UKMO

Very similar- ECM further Swest

S

so according to the ecm chart where do you think the snowline would be steve??

[ChartViewer]

Be nice to see whats left of that energy/ vortex empty out over Canada/Greenland later in the run and head round the high to us

ECM T72

T96 ECM

Edited February 8, 2013 by ChartViewer

[on the coast]

http://www.wetterzen...ics/Recm721.gif

ECM 72-

Much of a much ness-

Steve

120 and what a difference?

[Dibdabbers]

Still looking marginal on the models for the West Midlands. Although I fancy an upgrade/widening of the snow area tomorrow as the colder air being dragged in floods south....

We can hope :-)

[chris55]

We could really do without the system breaking into two low pressure centres, this negates the easterly flow for much of England and has knock on effects. But with such a situation I wouldn't say this is nailed yet.

Edited February 8, 2013 by chris55

[Cheese Rice]

It's worth pointing out there is a band forming ahead of the front that should stall across N.England. In doing so pulling in moisture of the N.Sea leading to snowfall falling as early as Saturday night before the two bands merge forming a convergence zone.

[Tamara]

Be nice to see whats left of that energy/ vortex empty out over Canada/Greenland later in the run and head round the high to us

ECM T72

T96 ECM

We want to see the energy disrupt SE, preferably at the same time as the High pressure over Scandinavia exerts itself west T120 could be a bit better in this respect - but we shall see what happens next soon

http://www.meteociel...12/ECH1-120.GIF

Edited February 8, 2013 by Tamara Road

[on the coast]

120 and what a difference?

[shaky]

Can we get snow showers with uppers of -4 from the continent cos thats what the ecm is showing!!

[cold snap]

think we can sum it up how the models have handled it,

the ecm overdone it

the gfs underdone it

middle scenerio

usual

[Zastruga]

I can't keep up with the latest weather updates, they seem confused. I suppose they have to be certain with their forecasts as they have a big audience. Does anyone know how this weeks snow event will pan out? Lord stratus are you there? Your forecasts are always spot on so please post!

The latest charts seem marginal for the bulk of the country but could this change?

[Dibdabbers]

Met office APPS, Links & 5 days update twice a day after the UKMO Raw data 00z & 12z-(IIRC)

so thats whys its changed-

12z ECM @ 48 V UKMO 48

ECM

UKMO

Very similar- ECM further Swest

S

Thanks Steve so this is positive for the West Mids

[chris55]

I can't keep up with the latest weather updates, they seem confused. I suppose they have to be certain with their forecasts as they have a big audience. Does anyone know how this weeks snow event will pan out? Lord stratus are you there? Your forecasts are always spot on so please post!

The latest charts seem marginal for the bulk of the country but could this change?

Even the Lord couldn't call this one .....yet (well maybe the real lord...like up there, lol)

[Panayiotis]

We could really do without the system breaking into two low pressure centres, this negates the easterly flow for much of England and has knock on effects. But with such a situation I wouldn't say this is nailed yet.

NAE shows what you are talking about:

[SMU]

well its no mans land as usual for the UK- Dry & cold.

but at least it isnt the atlantic.

168 could go either way-

Steve

[cooling climate]

It was only a couple of days back when we were looking at projected temps into next week

with -10c and -11c air over east Anglia and the south east. Now we are looking at -5c and

by t120 dispite a 1040mb high over Scandinavia we can not even manage that.

Very disappointing.

Edited February 8, 2013 by cooling climate

[Tamara]

Well, at t144 we have the Azores High phase with the block over Scandinavia - we get no undercut nor low pressure into the UK but a mid latitude High.

[bluearmy]

think we can sum it up how the models have handled it,

the ecm overdone it

the gfs underdone it

middle scenerio

usual

still cant accept that both models deserve as much consideration on this. no undercut = plain wrong. the pattern after the undercut was always going to be open to abuse from ecm. the big question at the outset was undercut or not. the gfs got it wrong. at the moment we dont have a scenario where one model is repeating the same option against the others so we cant run an exercise to see if gfs/gem/ukmo is right on something. i will not state that ecm always gets a pick like this right because that would be incorrect. however, when the ecm op repeats a scenario 4 times without any support, maybe next time a few more will take it a bit more seriously.

[Matty M]

The northwest Ireland low also on the ECM, really going to be a killer for any chances of snow for this area.

What looked a few days ago as a low sliding south and give us maybe a decent 36hrs of easterly flow has turned into a mess with no advection of the real cold air. The coldest air gets mixed out and pushed north.

The little low to the northwest of Ireland delays the easterly feed and before you know it the Atlantic is pushing in.

Story of the winter in terms of the models

[Cheese Rice]

I'd say there's a general consensus amongst the models regarding the track of the low.

Red most likely, black medium probability.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Cheese Rice

[polarlow2]

I'm not usually one to get all emotive over prospects but I'm beginning to think this is getting gradually watered down to very standard UK winter weather. It seems any 'severe' cold modelled more than five days away continually becomes less severe as the days tick by, it's just that the watering down process is so gradual that you hardly notice it, and suddenly you've gone from very promising to very mediocre. I'm happy to be corrected by more knowledgeable members, but I've been viewing this thread for eight years now and it seems that, more often than not, a cold spell becomes less and less interesting as it approaches. 09/10 aside, obviously.