winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[chris55]

18z has the low slightly deeper, more compact and slightly further south and west,

[the lad sharp]

Deeply confused. This morning we were being told to don the snowshoes and that there was no sign of mild for the foreseeable and now you are saying we should slap on the factor 50 and dust off the cricket boots. I've lost faith in this netweather lark

[Mucka]

Sorry, but some absolute garbage being written about ECM ensembles. There is still a cold cluster throughout, they are cold out to around day 10, the mean never shows a zonal signal and they actually get colder toward the end. Hardly Spring like.

The Op was very disappointing for me tonight given the lack of disruption and undercut in the mid term, only downhill from there, but the ensembles are actually not that bad.

Still all to play for and keep watching for the second system to disrupt SE a la GFS 12z, much depends on it if you like snow.

[MrSunshine]

18z has the low slightly deeper, more compact and slightly further south and west,

18z showing most precipitation over midlands, Northern England and trailing down towards the south east.

[chris55]

GFS with the Low centre 100 miles to the south and west on the 18z, not massive differences though with regards to uppers, although ppn is less widespread.

[Dunstable Snow]

Deeply confused. This morning we were being told to don the snowshoes and that there was no sign of mild for the foreseeable and now you are saying we should slap on the factor 50 and dust off the cricket boots. I've lost faith in this netweather lark

Dont worry you will get used to it ! Cold and snow in the UK is never straight forward. The charts can look great 3/4/5 days out and then implode particularly in a situation like this when conditions on the ground are so marginal for snow for many of us. In many respects this adds to the 'charm' of the experience. Its like being in a volatile relationship with a woman you really love.. you can try and predict whats going to happen next ..chances are you will be dissapointed and wrong but every now and then ( and this can be extremely patchy) things work out great..

[london-snow]

Re the LP on the 18z the positive is that it is slightly further sw the negative is that its quite a deep area. Ideally we would like to see a less deep area of LP & nudged slightly further sw. This is purely a imby point of view to add. Plenty time for small changes which can make a difference in a big way.

[Frosty.]

I am looking at Sun/Mon before spring.

and tuesday and wednesday, still lots of time for longevity of cold block to be increased although the far nw is exposed to some collapse in the cold weather by around midweek.

[R.P. McMurphy]

18z has the low slightly deeper, more compact and slightly further south and west,

Not sure about that. Looks a little North to me from the 12Z and certainly more West.

[ChartViewer]

Deeply confused. This morning we were being told to don the snowshoes and that there was no sign of mild for the foreseeable and now you are saying we should slap on the factor 50 and dust off the cricket boots. I've lost faith in this netweather lark

You should have been here 7 years...youd be in a right state ..ive just seen you are a long term member...surely you know by now!

Edited February 8, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Mr_Pessimistic]

I'm guessing gfs ppn charts should be ignored,, as they show plenty of snow for many?

[Frosty.]

I'm filing for divorce then. I can understand changes in 3/4/5 days but not 3/4/5 hours.

the thing is though, this low which we are all talking about tonight, hasn't even been born yet, so the models will continue to struggle until it does.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The alarming thing for me is the rate those cold uppers are being moderated after the Sunday system. We were looking at -11 uppers at one point.

[Timmytour]

People summarising winter already...well even if it has gone, and even if it works out to have been average overall..there are enough far worse winters in my none-too-distant memory to make me grateful for that!

I still believe winter has some teeth yet....but that we will be nipped with it rather than suffer full on bites.

i think we are drawing to the end of a period of time where people could claim we are going to be locked in to a real bitter prolonged spell of winter. Can it really be only a week ago that people were drooling over super "consistent" charts like this....?

[Frosty.]

The alarming thing for me is the rate those cold uppers are being moderated after the Sunday system. We were looking at -11 uppers at one point.

it's only the pub run, don't worry.

[Panayiotis]

Block much stronger than the 12z, will the low to do a 'clean' undercut?

Edited February 8, 2013 by Panayiotis

[R.P. McMurphy]

GFS with the Low centre 100 miles to the south and west on the 18z, not massive differences though with regards to uppers, although ppn is less widespread.

Wouldn't worry about that, by Monday any snow lingering is confined to the North, more so the North East with showers in the North West. Not much more correction now until the event, shame for those in the South & SW with heavy rain and strong winds.

[bryan629]

hmmmm t102, heights stronger over greenland compared to the 12z, also shortwave much further north and west, under cut coming possibly

sos correction much further east and a bit south .

just like met office chart

Edited February 8, 2013 by bryan629

[ChartViewer]

People summarising winter already...well even if it has gone, and even if it works out to have been average overall..there are enough far worse winters in my none-too-distant memory to make me grateful for that!

I still believe winter has some teeth yet....but that we will be nipped with it rather than suffer full on bites.

i think we are drawing to the end of a period of time where people could claim we are going to be locked in to a real bitter prolonged spell of winter. Can it really be only a week ago that people were drooling over super "consistent" charts like this....?

To be honest mate were clutching at straws re having a winter bite this late....with models showing a re forming of the vortex over Greenland we are not going to get a teeth bitten end of winter right now...wed need a strong gh from mid Feb to even consider a late bite to our winter...it doesnt show that...Im not optimistic were going out with a bang...more a collapsing azores into the UK with chilly nights....nothing special though...shame as i want a right spark to end winter but right now it aint looking like that...

Edited February 8, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Derecho]

18Z run looks rather benign with the Azores high Starting to link up with the Scandi high however the second low may undercut.... hopefully we may see the trend for a Greenland high again later in the run because it has disappeared recently. The 18z reduces the influx of cold uppers in the short term yet again.

The achilles heel of this winter is the refusal of the NAO to go negative. If the Azores high was weaker I think this would have been a classic. I think we have managed to do very well this winter considering the poor synoptics we have seen.

Still we may get a decent covering early next week, very borderline though. After that I hope the high over Scandi can strengthen and lead to some decent blocking but that is a long way off yet.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[Mucka]

Rain, rain and rain for NW England on latest NAE. Encouraging because it is useless for my area.

[snowking]

Latest NAE 18z

SK

EDIT- Posted in wrong thread, but still relevant!

Edited February 8, 2013 by snowking

[ChartViewer]

Latest NAE 18z

SK

EDIT- Posted in wrong thread, but still relevant!

More rain then

[SMU]

NAE 48 has the southern end of the low sliding more rather than 'lifting' towards the channel-

Now the SE has heavy Snow-

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/08/basis18/ukuk/prty/13021018_2_0818.gif

The slice of air now depicted is 1295 across the SE

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/08/basis18/ukuk/th85/13021018_2_0818.gif

& dewpoints sub zero-

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/08/basis18/ukuk/taup/13021018_2_0818.gif

Notice how the 18z GFS is a lot warmer

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2013/02/08/basis18/ukuk/th85/13021018_2_0818.gif

So what do we take-

well Ian dismissed the GFS as 'broadly pants' last night- the NAE looks very good- although we need just a smidge of colder air ...

but a better 18z for more widespread snow-

S

[Freezing-Point]

Block much stronger than the 12z, will the low to do a 'clean' undercut?

In the unlikely even it does, the cold pool is not deep enough to cause a significant cold spell. Even the recent Jan spell was predominantly marginal for most of the UK. I recall a very deep pool of cold intensifying in NE Europe for weeks before the Feb 1991 spell. Weeks before it hit us it made bbc news, which showed the Baltic frozen over and ships in harbour covered in ice. When it did hit us many had max daytime temps of -4. For a long time now the models have not shown any chance of such a deep cold pool, so what actually happens is always marginal for most.