winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[Roger J Smith]

GFS is only slight upgrade through 72-96h but GME and UKMO are somewhat larger upgrades, especially GME ... would indicate snow line making steady southward progress to about a Surrey-Bristol line at least.

Still looking for retrogression to intensify, some signs of it already evident. Feel that situation is more likely to bust on mild side than cold side of recent model indications, but have never claimed 100% foreknowledge etc, just throwing my thoughts into the mix as everyone else does. Given the research orientation, not sure how I would become unconvinced of retrogression on a short time scale like now to end of this month, my thoughts tend to change at rather glacial pace compared to many (probably should therefore not post on hyperactive threads such as this one).

[Dave Kightley]

UKmo 144h looks quite flat to me.. Not great

[chicken soup]

Whats it looking like for the lancs area anyone

[SMU]

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/09/basis00/ukuk/prty/13021100_0900.gif

00Z NAE

S

[Dave Kightley]

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/02/09/basis00/ukuk/prty/13021100_0900.gif

00Z NAE

S

that's nasty Steve. Way things are going I won't be surprised of another 30 miles south with that snow line on the 12z. Edited February 9, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

that's nasty Steve. Way things are going I won't be surprised of another 30 miles south with that snow line on the 12z.

I Agree Dave

[Dave Kightley]

I Agree Dave

The centre of that low will properly need to be over North of France and if so all the models are poor if it does.

[chicken soup]

The nae must be wrong,most of england is bone dry.....huge model disaster across the board if this right.

Edited February 9, 2013 by chicken soup

[Dave Kightley]

The nae must be wrong,most of england is bone dry.....huge model disaster across the board if this right.

I think the Nae backs up the ECM mean with the centre in the channel rather than Wales. Might be wrong though..

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

I think the Nae backs up the ECM mean with the centre in the channel rather than Wales. Might be wrong though..

It doesnt matter really , it will not be black en white this at paper.

Think also to the convection line en showers will for certain develop to start en very quik, without any model seeing it .It can.

By me now , i get un unexpected disruption from the nordsea , westen Netherlands , it moved now in land while i am talking to you, it will bring 5 -8 cm snow. I swear no 1 model had that for seen for us not the big or litlle one , or any , only at the last moment 10 hours ago Hirlam said Yes it is coming. En now it is here for me, surprise.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

The Canadian model is hinting for the 3e decade februari a Greenland Block/High with again a nord flow .240 Hours. Intresting.

[Dave Kightley]

Gem makes more of the warm sector. Nae is one to follow now

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Look at this ! , now what ?

This is the latest CFS , the 18z , it just came out, [ becouse CFS is always later with in runs in line].

Its stunning , i am perplex.It makes everthing much colder .

Are we missing something ?

Every model have to many diffent versions !

Look CFS goes further ! .

I think we are getting fooled by some models or we simply dont know, also that can.

We must look now is there a correlation with the synoptisch pattern now at the moment in the United States [ east coast area boston ] en how is the NSW at this moment !

The Nao is also bothering me .

Very strange funny winter is this.

[Dave Kightley]

Look at this ! , now what ?

This is the latest CFS , the 18z , it just came out, [ becouse CFS is always later with in runs in line].

Its stunning , i am perplex.It makes everthing much colder .

Are we missing something ?

Every model have to many diffent versions !

Look CFS goes further ! .

I think we are getting fooled by some models or we simply dont know, also that can.

We must look now is there a correlation with the synoptisch pattern now at the moment in the United States [ east coast area boston ] en how is the NSW at this moment !

The Nao is also bothering me .

Very strange funny winter is this.

marriage made in heaven that' second chart...Beautiful northern blocking

[Weather-history]

If NAE is correct then there would be no need for warnings for snow cover for Monday morning rush hour for the bulk of country. It does feel like increasingly like this is going to turn out to be a non event for many places. Looks increasingly localised if you take NAE at face value.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=

GFS makes more of the snow cover

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=weas&HH=48&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

There is a feel of everything is being downgraded.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

If this comes true , i will sell my wife.

Winter in march.

End is this will come true too , i marry with CFS .

Cfs run after run is going for surprise s, .

Fasten your seatbells ladies en gentleman , we have probaly a long road to go with the wintry cold , cool , chilly weather patterns perhaps.

[SLEETY]

Huge shift overnight.

TEITS said the models had the low progged too far north.Well done to him.

Sometimes I think the pros' are too reliant on what the computer says.

They said at the beginning of the week,that they expected to be trending towards w/sw flow by this weekend.

This was based on what their mid-range computer model was saying and Steve Murr at the beginning of this week said he wasn't convinced of this.

Steve,well done to you You have outfoxed the pros' again

[Cheshire Freeze]

Huge shift overnight.

TEITS said the models had the low progged too far north.Well done to him.

Sometimes I think the pros' are too reliant on what the computer says.

They said at the beginning of the week,that they expected to be trending towards w/sw flow by this weekend.

This was based on what their mid-range computer model was saying and Steve Murr at the beginning of this week said he wasn't convinced of this.

Steve,well done to you You have outfoxed the pros' again

On the say so of one run of one model?

GFS 0z has things same as 18z if not slightly N, UKMO has it same as 12z yesterday, GEM holds it in the same position too, NOGAPS has it further NE than yesterdays 12z.

But hey, don't let facts get in the way.

Less of the congratulatory back slapping until after the event eh?

Edited February 9, 2013 by CreweCold

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

On the say so of one run of one model?

GFS 0z has things same as 18z if not slightly N, UKMO has it same as 12z yesterday, GEM holds it in the same position too, NOGAPS has it further NE than yesterdays 12z.

But hey, don't let facts get in the way.

Less of the congratulatory back slapping until after the event eh?

Yes but wat ever happens there is no Atlantik en sw or west flow in this weekend en mild air .

I read the postings , sleety had a point in here.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Ryan Dutch Weatherman

[Dave Kightley]

ECM is ok. Makes less of the mild sector 1am Monday all under colder uppers again. Colder then some other runs anyway..

Edited February 9, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Dave Kightley]

ECM is ok. Makes less of the mild sector 1am Monday all under colder uppers again. colder then some other runs anyway.

[Dave Kightley]

ECM is a lot better at 144h then the Ukmo. Better ridging in the Atlantic. a n.w/n end of the week? Further west would be nice... Win win the cold uppers being built up in Europe if we nick a easterly at some point.

Edited February 9, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

High pressure looks to building north of the uk , with what looks like vertical WAA heading north toward . . . Greenland and the polar regions ?! Not as dramatic yet but looks like it may develop !

[That ECM]

Latest nae output does put parts of the se in the game. However the 48 accum chart will disappoint many. I am unable to post the charts to demonstrate. Maybe someone could post the accum chart. Sm has posted the chart showing se.

Edited February 9, 2013 by That ECM

[Weather-history]

Latest nae output does put parts of the se in the game. However the 48 accum chart will disappoint many. I am unable to post the charts to demonstrate. Maybe someone could post the accum chart. Sm has posted the chart showing se.

The snow accumulation chart I posted before says it all for NAE

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=weas&HH=48&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=