winter model output Winter Model Output Discussion -12Z 07/02/13 onwards

[Nick F]

Lol, is that another trough disruption with slider low I see on the 18z for mid-week onwards. Do we really have to go through the same nail biting rollercoaster like Sunday's low again? Though this time the slider low moves SE further north.

Seems to have been a re-occuring theme since the start of the year, block over Scandi with Atlantic troughs disrupting close to the UK with slider lows being sent SE across the UK along the battleground between milder Atlantic air and cold continental air.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Nick F

[SMU]

I guess if Ian lands on here- what are the 'decider' models saying location wise- & do you get an 18z UKMO any more-

S

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The one over Greenland?

Any...its Gavin?!

Re position of the LP and its sliding track etc.....well its not decided until it happens and expect more tweaks. And those thinking RJS is backtracking...nope

BFTP

Edited February 8, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[joggs]

Lets have some cool sunny days with the Ah linking with the Scandi high i say, If im honest i feel let down this winter with what the strat signals promised ie cold blocking etc.I still think there is a huge pv magnet under th Greenland ice sheet and the AH has not really looked like budgimg on the models.For myself, 2 weeks or so left for proper winter and with nothing other tham standard fayre showing on the mods then Mettofice Have performed very well(i knowthey are the pros) and can take great credit for me with their updates,(apart from 1 which was worded contradictory-JH will back that up!)

Its still been great mod watching n would i be right in saying ecm more accu than the rest in general???

Anyway im ready for spring and so with a glass in my hand cheers to all who contribute n see you nextwinter.

PS excuse punctuation, grammar-red wine lol.Regards

[ChartViewer]

Any...its Gavin?!

Re position of the LP and its sliding track etc.....well its not decided until it happens and expect more tweaks. And those thinking RJS is backtracking...nope

BFTP

Blimey im an optimist but come on Blast we are not looking at a prolonged cold spell with deep cold...its staring s in the face for a mixed out cooler spell with a mix of snow, rain etc.....the mid range doesnt even show us anything cold now to be honest....PV trying to reform.....just maybe a high giving us chilly nights.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Wait for Nogaps charts ! 18z.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Wait for Nogaps charts ! 18z.

End they are not tellig that CFS run after run run after run is spitting winter march , 14 runs at a row .

Wait we see , game on !

[J10]

Lol, is that another trough disruption with slider low I see on the 18z for mid-week onwards. Do we really have to go through the same nail biting rollercoaster like Sunday's low again? Though this time the slider low moves SE further north.

Seems to have been a re-occuring theme since the start of the year, block over Scandi with Atlantic troughs disrupting close to the UK with slider lows being sent SE across the UK along the battleground between milder Atlantic air and cold continental air.

A point I made in my ski blog today. I have attached synoptic charts to show this weeks battleground (from the GFS 12Hz)

http://forum.netweat...-february-2013/

This may of interest, and also a way to blatantly plug the blog.

I have shown 4 charts showing the expected progression this week, in a way back to square one at T+144, although I am sure this will change over coming days, this weekend isn't completely nailed yet.

Edited February 8, 2013 by Jackone

[cooling climate]

The trend going by the 18z is another step further south and west. The UKMO this evening

was a good run for snow potential and if this model is on the money and the trend continues

then it could indeed be a much more interesting scenario Sunday into Monday for much of

England and Wales perhaps.

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Were is the Atlantik ?

Were , this they diddnt show you.

Nothings is for sure , not about even 5 hours from now , this becouse of the solar wind en the magnitude as draaiing vd aardbol.

Also i see snoow for UK.

[Tim Bland]

End they are not tellig that CFS run after run run after run is spitting winter march , 14 runs at a row .

Wait we see , game on !

Problem is Ryan neither the CFS or NOGAPS have very good verification stats. I'd agree though that 14 runs in a row is interesting, it could of course be consistently wrong just like the ECM was for 3 days earlier in week

[Jason M]

This chart neatly sums up the key issue we face.

http://www.meteociel...?&ech=90&mode=1

Europe is significantly warmer than it should be at this time of year. If you lack the depth of cold to work with everything becomes ten times more difficult. In mid Jan we might get away with it, but its much harder in mid Feb. The sun is just starting to have an influence on things now. Its not a massive influence but just enough to make things a little more marginal and when were already marginal. This really sums up while i've remained sceptical of anything special despite what at face value are decent synoptics.

Although the opp is yet again rubbish, I expect there will be the potential for better options in the last third of the month with hopefully deeper cold. The sun by then is exerting increasing influence, but as TEITS said yesterday if we can tap a proper cold pool that signal can still be overcome in late Feb with Ice Days still possible.

Jason

Edited February 8, 2013 by Jason M

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Problem is Ryan neither the CFS or NOGAPS have very good verification stats. I'd agree though that 14 runs in a row is interesting, it could of course be consistently wrong just like the ECM was for 3 days earlier in week

Than wat we are doing here ? Make otherwise a ECMWF FORUM.

[SMU]

Here is the 18z NOGAPS at 144 just for RYAN

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogaps/runs/2013020818/nogapsnh-0-144.png?08-23 clean & very cold

So the trend of the day is SW - here to show that- the last 3 GFS runs for the same time frame

06z 60

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013020806-0-60.png?6

12z 54

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfs-2013020812-0-54.png?12

18z 48

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013020818/gfs-0-48.png?18

S

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

Wen tou let see Nae , why not Hirlam , than we can decide our own wich way to go.

Than we have all together.

Me i put alle model together , CMA , EC < Nogaps en put it in my head en make 1 model.

I take ensemble from al togeteher en make 1 super ensemble.

Statistieks are not for granted .

Wast it by the way the Gem who forecast als best for the snowblizad nemo in USA/Canada ?

Not your EC ect.

[ChartViewer]

The CMA is shocking for cold in its later output....

[TEITS]

The trend going by the 18z is another step further south and west. The UKMO this evening

was a good run for snow potential and if this model is on the money and the trend continues

then it could indeed be a much more interesting scenario Sunday into Monday for much of

England and Wales perhaps.

Yes a clear trend SW has been apparent today. This is why I advised those in the far N of N England/Scotland to be wary of getting excited. I know this wasn't what members wanted to hear but its unsurprising to see this occur in the output today. Nothing to do with me having an IMBY attitude because so far i've been in a favourable position. However even for my location im not convinced how much precip will reach me as I expect even more SW corrections. I hope im wrong though because at the moment the output is perfect for my location.

In the medium range and like I said earlier i've been disappointed with the overall trend today. At this stage im doubting we shall see a continuation of the cold into the following week.

This winter has been rather strange. If I didn't do so well during the Jan cold spell then this winter would of been rubbish. It seems we have always had something to discuss but little reward from this. This winter reminds me of last winter where the synoptics have been poor but I have actually seen more snowfall than Dec 2010.

Shall be interesting to debate what went wrong. Im sure we shall see some fancy charts being posted suggesting blocking was evident to our N but the reality is a GH has never developed and the NAO has remained largely neutral. Another interesting stat is I haven't seen any snowfall via convection this winter and this has all occured via fronts.

[SMU]

Speaking along the lines now its pub run time. Where's my beer token from the comp you ran steve?

PM me your PAYPAL

People hopefully this post will stay-

If you want to observe LIVE NEMO snow storm in the US use the TWC link here

http://www.weather.com/tv/tvshows/live-stream

Please no replies-****************************

[Tim Bland]

Than wat we are doing here ? Make otherwise a ECMWF FORUM.

The top 3 models are ECM / UKMO / GFS close range NAE, NNM, MOGREPS, UKMV etc. we all discuss the others and don't stop doing so. My point is just that if NOGAPS shows a pattern that none of the others do its u likely to mean anything. Same goes for CMA / CFS etc

[Ryan Dutch Weatherman]

CMA 12z , wenn we discust models we discuss all model , Noboydy have rihgt to say this model is good or better or statistieks.

Ok CMA 12z , it seems to me clear that hew il bring again the noord flow again , building ridge en working out something with Greenland.

I am also tired about to hear Ec this wettergod , lI have prove i can send one data here that at 30 dec2012 that i predicted exact , exact the wintry inval at 10 januari 2013 en Hell no it was not the ECMWF , he came as last aan boord.I have proof in mine own forum , facebook , hyves, twitter.

I can show you. The title of the saga was the Battle of Holland.

[Long haul to mild]

Problem is Ryan neither the CFS or NOGAPS have very good verification stats. I'd agree though that 14 runs in a row is interesting, it could of course be consistently wrong just like the ECM was for 3 days earlier in week

I firmly believe that the UKMO is the only model to be relied upon at present. ECM keeps overdoing Easterlies in mid range but at least it was somewhere near the mark for the sliding deep low for this weekend. The joke that is GFS refused to even acknowledge its existence for most of this week, a lot longer than the ECM's flirtation with the Easterly!

[Jason M]

Ensembles out to 168. Some lovely ensembles synoptically but very little cold air to tap into.

This winter is a cruel master indeed

Jason

[ChartViewer]

Well one unexpected benefit of following this thread all winter is that I now know more Dutch than I could ever have imagined. A real positief. Unfortunately, I still don't know what the bloody weather is going to do 3 days hence.

Follow the CMA on Meteociel then youll get it

[reef]

Enough with the sniping and personal attacks please. If there is a post you dont like then press the report button so we can deal with it. Lots of replies afterwards all saying the same thing just makes it more difficult for us to sort the issue out.

Thanks

[Jason M]

aha, some cold air at last

http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

Nearly two weeks away mind, but I knew there would be some in one of the ensembles.

In fairness, the signal for a significant cold spell late in the month is still there.

Would have been interested to hear Ian Fs views for the weekend. Expect he might give this place a miss tonight though

Jason

Edit: Great cleaning skills Reef . Shame others are not so tidy!!

Edited February 8, 2013 by Jason M