South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 11th February 2013 18:00hrs>

[Steve C]

Morning all. The heavy rain from earlier has gone, so just awaiting the departure of the dross weather left behind and afternoon sunshine.

ECM charts from midnight for next Friday (8 days), Saturday and Sunday, for those that like to be tantalised...

Sorry about the picture order. I can't seem to make them follow a logical sequence. The site seems to have a mind of its own.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Steve C

[Methuselah]

Good morning, peeps.

A windy and wet 4.2C...

[Kent Snow]

Grey wet and windy. 4C. Looks like most of the heavy rain has moved through now.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

ECM & UKMO are still going for the return of The Beast From The East on Wednesday. GFS does not want to know. It has been playing catch up most of winter so I would not be surprised it is on par with ECM & GFS this weekend.

By the look of the models, it's not really going to be that mild

8-10 c is warm for this time of year..

[Lauren]

Blimey. It was a tad windy last night!

[Heisenberg]

Good morning all,

Well we are here again with the major models Vs GFS. A BFTE being modeled by all except the GFS. But havent we been let down before with "that ECM"

I know im being pesemistic and i do hope we can cash in on this one as it will be a lovely end to an eventful winter but please dont get too excited until we are in the more reliable....

Oh and Happy V day

[Coast]

Well that 'bad boy' GFS has the atmosphere over London still relatively mild for the next few days, but is that a small decline I can see at the very end of the current graph (22nd) on the temps and 500-1000 hts???

[Mike Storm]

Wow 8.4c here, dry and the sun is out! Woo will prob make double figures by lunchtime..

[Steve C]

Thickness Charts From Thursday to Sunday next week. Now this site has updated with ECM 00 charts, I'll use the graphics from here, as they are easier on the eye than Meteociel imo.

A combination of these with the 850 temps, leads me to think that there will be a cold and initially dry spell from Wednesday, if this verified, with the snow risk increasing later in the weekend. The Sunday charts are particularly good (tantalising anyway)

Still a long way off though, obviously.

Edited February 14, 2013 by Steve C

[Coast]

A combination of these with the 850 temps, leads me to think that there will be a cold and initially dry spell from Wednesday, with the snow risk increasing later in the weekend. The Sunday charts are particularly good (tantalising anyway)

Good interpretation Steve, I think it might be rain-free leading up to Thursday or even Friday too. The kids might get a decent half term outside, if parents can prise them away from their X-boxes !!:lol:

[BlizzardBelle]

Happy Valentine's Day fellow weather geeks!

[Coast]

Happy Valentine's Day fellow weather geeks!

Hey less of the geek, I like to think of myself as an 'enthusiast' .........

[Ben_Cambs]

Morning all,

A wet night and the temperature is now up to 6.8C. Next few days look to be quiet weather-wise with temperatures around 8-9C and mainly dry + cloudy.

As for this morning's model output, UKMO and ECM maintaining the height rises over Scandinavia in just under a week's time drawing in an E/NE'ly flow. The charts Steve posted are classic winter synoptics! Love to see something like that verify. ECM ens in good agreement at T+144 and T+168 about the height rises next week:

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1441.gif

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Reem1681.gif

GFS still only slowly edging towards the European models, though is slowly getting there..

Edited February 14, 2013 by Ben_Cambs

[Tom Montalbano]

Wow 8.4c here, dry and the sun is out! Woo will prob make double figures by lunchtime..

Morning Mike,

Now go on wash your mouth out, tut tut double figures! Too early in the year for that, imo.

Tom

[Downpour]

Morning Mike,

Now go on wash your mouth out, tut tut double figures! Too early in the year for that, imo.

Tom

Nah. It's Valentine's Day. Roll on spring ;-)

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Still some snow patches left on the Chilterns this morning. Bet they won't be there tonight though :-(

[alexisj9]

Morning all, nice sunny day. Happy v day.

[Coast]

Happy v day.

[Hotspur62]

After the early heavy rain which has now cleared the current bun is now out and temp has already reached 8.7 degrees here in Petts Wood/Locksbottom borders.Looks like a good 3/4 dry sunny days with temps peaking today at about 10 before slowly dropping during weekend with 6 more likely by Sunday.Still no change from models although GFS seems to be getting more isolated in its thinking.If latest ECM run is correct then i would say a fair chance of SE,part Kent,Essex,Suffolk and Sussex could be turning white but i will wait until what ALL models say come Sunday night before getting hopes up,as we all know they have been raised before only for things to go Pete Tong!!

[Methuselah]

A very happy Over-Commercialized Cardboard Crap Day everyone...

[Pixel]

A very happy Over-Commercialized Cardboard Crap Day everyone...

everyday is valentines day in our home.... except this one !

So nice to see the sun today tho (-:

[Tamara]

A very happy Over-Commercialized Cardboard Crap Day everyone...

Bah-humbug indeed

[Grinzzz]

Interesting effect in our garden this morning. It's on two levels, the lower level is totally devoid of snow remants while the upper level is still 50% covered. No other differences between them other than the height, and thats only about 2 foot!

[Coast]

Interesting effect in our garden this morning. It's on two levels, the lower level is totally devoid of snow remants while the upper level is still 50% covered. No other differences between them other than the height, and thats only about 2 foot!

Is it the sun rising over a fence or other high obstacle with part of the garden remaining in the shade?

Warmer UK weather to replace snow

Milder weather forecast after icy blast, with temperatures expected to climb to double figures over next few days

Wintry conditions are set to be replaced by warmer weather, with temperatures expected to climb to double figures this week. Heavy snowfall brought travel disruption to parts of the country overnight, with dozens of motorists trapped on high ground and many forced to abandon their vehicles.

Snow ploughs and gritters were called to the A1079 Arras hill at Market Weighton, East Yorkshire, on Wednesday to clear the road and rescue drivers, many of whom were stuck for hours, the BBC said. But they also became trapped on the road, the main route between Hull and York. Police said up to 40 vehicles had been stuck in "very bleak" conditions. One motorist was stranded in his car for three and a half hours trying to get from Leeds to Beverley.

West Yorkshire police also warned of poor weather conditions and icy roads around the Pennines, above Huddersfield, as rain replaces snow. The A635 Greenfield Road at Holmfirth is expected to reopen on Thursday morning, and the A628 Woodhead Pass in Derbyshire was shut because of severe weather, the Highways Agency said.

The UK will see much milder weather on Thursday, forecasters said, with temperatures rising to 12C (54F) in the south-west, 11C in London and 9C in the north, the Midlands and Scotland. The snow is not expected to return this week, as dry and sunny weather replaces the recent cold snap, according to Sally Webb at MeteoGroup.

"Heavy rain falling across much of England and Wales this morning will clear through the south-east around noon, leaving a largely dry and sunny day," she said. "There will be isolated showers along western fringes, particularly in Scotland. "It will stay dry overnight, with clear spells and widespread frost, and temperatures getting down to 0C in most places, and minus 2C in places like Cheshire. Tomorrow there will be sunny spells, though Scotland is still likely to see some showers overnight into Saturday, but elsewhere it will be largely dry and sunny throughout the weekend."

But the warmer weather is likely to be short-lived. Forecasters say cooler temperatures will return at the end of next week. The Environment Agency has eight flood warnings in place – three in the Midlands, three in East Anglia and two in the south-west, and 132 less serious flood alerts, mainly in the south-east.

http://www.guardian....er-replace-snow

Edited February 14, 2013 by Coast

[tight isobar]

For sale one seriously deluded confused, bonkers, computer model..any offers considered,,apply to GFS model output.also warming to know we have some stand up comics ön netweather, with an absolute, cracker on mod out thread quote) the gfs has out performaned the ecm all winter...Pmsl...?????*?