scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 14th February 2013 >

[101_North]

Latest Met Office automated postcode forecast has light snow for almost 24hrs here starting Sat evening. Shame it's complete nonsense

All gone again

[Northernlights]

April snowfall seems to have become very common in the last few years, my sister's birthday is on the 4th April and there's been snow falling or lying around that time in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2012.

Was asked the other day what I thought the weather would be like in March this year and had to say on a statistical non synopsis basis no 2 years are the same and so it would not be dry and sunny like last year but likely to be the polar opposite. I may be correct.

Over the years March can be quite snowy especially with sea temperatures at their lowest and north and east winds approaching their most frequent

A question for LomondSnowstorm I was looking at the actual sea temperatures in the North Sea currently and to me they look fairly low .Are they average or below average?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Was asked the other day what I thought the weather would be like in March this year and had to say on a statistical non synopsis basis no 2 years are the same and so it would not be dry and sunny like last year but likely to be the polar opposite. I may be correct.

Over the years March can be quite snowy especially with sea temperatures at their lowest and north and east winds approaching their most frequent

A question for LomondSnowstorm I was looking at the actual sea temperatures in the North Sea currently and to me they look fairly low .Are they average or below average?

Below average by a degree or so:

As you say SSTs are lowest around this time of year which does mean that sea modification becomes less important. And of course it's why we get haar more frequently late spring into summer.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Pub run brings out all the stops tonight. No mess northerly:

Very 'troughy' setup with westerly winds and -8C uppers:

Slight mixing out of the coldest uppers but perhaps enough to keep precipitation as snow for the east at least:

Cold trough scenario for the remainder of the run:

[Hairy Celt]

Finished my stint up north for now: got 6/7 blue dome days and one pea-souper; no bad!! Cracking spell, it really does make the world a better place.

Off down south on the 1st train tomorrow, see if I can catch some English snow (more likely to catch some English virus)...

Will sort some photos next week...

[DR(S)NO]

All this chat about March snow has had me looking at old pictures. March 11th/12th 2006.

The start of the snow at 11.25pm on the 11th:

12.17am:

I lay on the couch watching the snow fall for hours before falling asleep and waking up to this at about 7am:

Random photo at the end of the post to show that it snowed and settled as late as the 9th of April that year. I don't remember it lasting long once the shower passed though:

Ahhhhhh,I remember this night so,so well.Had been out for the night with friends but needed to be back just after 12 to let my late daughters carer go.Well,Saturday nights being Saturday nights I arrived home slightly the worse for wear.Ran up the stairs to see how my daughter was and Unfortuneately missed the top stair and went head first into the bathroom door,took a rather large chunk out my forehead and ended with blood pouring down my face!!

Anyhoos,the snow had just started on the way ack from the pub.....I could have done with going to the hospital. Yet none of us were fit for driving and the weather was getting worse.So we all spent the next few hours playing poker,me dodging the slowly congealing drops of blood...my mates desperately concealing there tears of laughter at my misfortune.

By 3 am. The snow was thick on the ground..we were all out on the street having a mass snowball fight and building a huge snowman( a group of late 30 year olds ,the biggest kids around)and the snow fell for many more hours...there must have been nigh on a foot of snow by the time it stopped.the next day the local farmer had to use his digger to clear the car park!,

I would definitely say its the heaviest fall of snow I've seen for many years....boy it was great.

Anyone else got weather related injuries to regale?

Incidentally Catch.,I remember the 9 th snowfall too as its my birthday......had a few white ones...and also some roasting ones too.Apparently the year I was born '69. There was a heatwave in April and it snowed in May, so plenty of time yet for more winter weather.

[LomondSnowstorm]

NAE gives light snowfall for southeast Scotland for Saturday afternoon:

Very impressive consistency in the models for once, that trough has been on the faxes since +120 I think, and always with the Forth as the most northerly point.

Uppers tick Shuggee's justifiable -8C rule as well:

Temperatures, as currently progged, very conducive to snowfall:

[Northernlights]

Thanks LS for the reply.Last summer probably didn"t add much heat to the sea water!

Cool sunny start to the day currently -8c. Gound will take a bit of thawing today!

Edited February 22, 2013 by Northernlights

[lorenzo]

This winter deserves some Northerly outbreaks sincerely hope this verifies.

Arctic chart.. literally..

Plenty to watch again just now.

Cold this morning, cloud covering all skies. Very still. Nice to say the days extending and things brighter in the evening now.

[Guest]

Very impressive consistency in the models for once, that trough has been on the faxes since +120 I think, and always with the Forth as the most northerly point.

Remarkable that even the GFS has been fairly consistent on this too, unusual for it to pick up such a small feature at range...or maybe we just don't give it the attention/respect that it deserves at times?

[howham]

Cloudy again and no frost overnight. Currently 1.2C.

[101_North]

Latest Met Office automated postcode forecast has light snow for almost 24hrs here starting Sat evening. Shame it's complete nonsense

All gone again

Back but a huge downgrade to 15hrs

[Guest]

I am not long back from Kelso, dropping MrsC off at work and there were the lightest of light little snow grains falling from the sky. 101_North, maybe you'll get 15 hours of this type of snow? Then the forecast would be "correct"

[101_North]

I am not long back from Kelso, dropping MrsC off at work and there were the lightest of light little snow grains falling from the sky. 101_North, maybe you'll get 15 hours of this type of snow? Then the forecast would be "correct"

I'm not even here this weekend as away with friends to a lodge in Perthshire. Be just my luck to miss this 'event'

[NUT]

Really starting to feel bracingly cold! Yesterday was not too bad when the sun was out (briefly) but ever since that disappeared it been cold since. BRR!

[Guest]

I'm not even here this weekend as away with friends to a lodge in Perthshire. Be just my luck to miss this 'event'

I think you may need to cancel your weekend in anticipation of this forthcoming snizzard.

NUT: It has been cold here since the cloud rolled in the other day. Feels a lot colder than the current 0.6ºC, with very light snow grains to boot If it keeps on like this for maybe 15 or 20 years I might gather enough snow for a snowball. Just a small one mind :lol:

[LomondSnowstorm]

At the predicted rate, you'd need about 15 hours of non stop snow just to get a covering...

[LomondSnowstorm]

Remarkable that even the GFS has been fairly consistent on this too, unusual for it to pick up such a small feature at range...or maybe we just don't give it the attention/respect that it deserves at times?

For our locale I think a simplistic way of describing the GFS would be that most of the time it's as good as the ECM/UKMO, usually when there's decent early model agreement and we have some kind of 'standard' pattern like the current weak easterly from an almost static mid latitude high, and in that case we can probably say that out to days 7-8 is relatively reliable with the GFS FI often providing a good idea of the general pattern past then.

The rest of the time, and for most of this winter, it shows nonsense at a critical junction e.g a slider under a weak block and usually in the same direction - it overstates the influence of westerlies and backtracks by moving everything slight further west with more energy going under the block run by run until it returns to the fold. It also struggles at times with the upstream (US) pattern which is maybe a bit embarrassing for its owners in the US Department of Defence but then their Navy ran NOGAPS so they must've been used to at times wildly unreliable forecasts. This winter has seen that same setup play out so many times that people like Steve Murr can now accurately predict what the models will show next but in a typical winter it's quite a rare setup so the GFS wouldn't appear to be as unreliable.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Signs of perhaps some heavier precipitation for the far southeast from the NAE. This has only just shown up after it being shown as very light so potential for the risk to extend further northwestwards too:

Uppers look bang on the money:

Right up to Sunday:

[Polar Gael]

So, today keeps the pattern of the past few days on repeat: cold, grey, not quite a frost, bit breezy at times and generally raw.

The lightest of light snawgrains earlier on. Could have sworn I was hallucinating, but ventured outside to check and they were real. All half a dozen of them.

Maybe giving just enough of a covering to build a snowman on the quantum level.

Currently 2.5ºC/-4ºC.

Edited February 22, 2013 by Polar Gael

[snow1975]

Light snow flurries this afternoon. Looks like heavier showers on the Lothian side of the Forth, and heading west to Edinburgh.

1.3C/-4C

Edited February 22, 2013 by snow1975

[BleakMidwinter]

So, today keeps the pattern of the past few days on repeat: cold, grey, not quite a frost, bit breezy at times and generally raw.

The lightest of light snawgrains earlier on. Could have sworn I was hallucinating, but ventured outside to check and they were real. All half a dozen of them.

Maybe giving just enough of a covering to build a snowman on the quantum level.

Currently 2.5ºC/-4ºC.

Can confirm you weren't hallucinating - drove through Marchmont c.2.30ish and definitely saw up to four or five micrograins of snaw (we were driving very very slowly, so had the opportunity to spot them).

[Guest]

The outbreaks of very very light snow grains from earlier have intensified into outbreaks of very very light snow...still a long way to go before it gathers though.

Unfortunately the showers showing on radar in the North Sea seem to be heading SW so not much action here tonight by the looks of things at the moment.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Get yer shovels back oot if this verifies. A classic setup for late season snowfall for Scotland, north, south, east and west.

A repeat of March '06 on the cards?

[Guest]

The TAF forecast for Edinburgh Airport is forecasting light snow showers for tomorrow between 6am and 10am:

TAF EGPH 221659Z 2218/2318 06007KT 9999 BKN032 PROB30 TEMPO 2306/2310 7000 -SHSN BKN010 =

http://wxweb.meteost....x=6&submit.y=8

My local Met-O forecast is now showing heavy snow for the 12pm time slot. That's a proper upgrade

All down to this trough? Timings look a little skew-wiffy.

Some precip moving into the far NW too, any reports from up there?! Would be good if they got some snow before anyone else

Edited February 22, 2013 by CatchMyDrift