winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?17-17

A shift north from the UKMO & a flow condusive to modest snow showers along the home counties in ~ -11c air.

S

nice chart steve,lets hope the slight shift north gathers momentum over the next 24hrs!

[Ice Day]

The 96 charts of GFS and UKMO are very similar

[swfc]

fantastic run for france and northern spain at 144 hours.Similar evolution overall id say from the o6z.The low to the south of greenland is much deper too

Edited February 17, 2013 by swfc

[Cheshire Freeze]

At 141...

Should hold onto a continental flow for longer as the trough to the NE hasn't cut through the HP like it did on the 6z

Compared to the 6z..

Edited February 17, 2013 by CreweCold

[SMU]

the SE just in the game on the periphery of modest snow showers-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013021712/UW120-21.GIF?17-17

For the rest we still need a shift of 100 miles north-

S

[snowking]

The aforementioned north-sea shortwave there for all to see, becoming sharper too:

For now, at least, thats where we are pinning our hopes on something more substantial.

Here it was on yesterdays 12z UKMO:

SK

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Nope,although ever so slightly north gfs looks content with the evolution,we're going to need further corrections north for it to be of worthwhile benefit ofr those away from the SE.

[That ECM]

the SE just in the game on the periphery of modest snow showers-

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013021712/UW120-21.GIF?17-17

For the rest we still need a shift of 100 miles north-

S

Don't forget my snizzel!!!

[Duane S.]

Yep let's hope this a new trend. I wouldn't mind an increase in energy to the SW as it would lead to a greater pressure differential and increased flow from the east....as is illustrated by the 12z. The main factor of importance is the trend of the last 24 hours has been halted and reversed on the 12z GFS

Absolutely, a bit more energy and it's win win. Deeper troughing would likely strength the easterly and also push more Northwards. Nice signs on the 12zs so far...

[shaky]

Guys at least we have had a shift north which means a better chance of snow for england!!come tomorrow we will hopefully see scotland in the action aswell ðŸ˜

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nope,although ever so slightly north gfs looks content with the evolution,we're going to need further corrections north for it to be of worthwhile benefit ofr those away from the SE.

Looks the same but look N and W...Less energy filtering over the top of the high...advection near vertical out west so an improvement on the 6z

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013021712/UW144-21.GIF?17-17

Snow into England from the Continent- northern extent difficult to say-

S

[MKN]

Nope,although ever so slightly north gfs looks content with the evolution,we're going to need further corrections north for it to be of worthwhile benefit ofr those away from the SE.

Wouldn't take many more shifts of a similar scale to improve things on the ground for many of us.

[Derecho]

Yep let's hope this a new trend. I wouldn't mind an increase in energy to the SW as it would lead to a greater pressure differential and increased flow from the east....as is illustrated by the 12z. The main factor of importance is the trend of the last 24 hours has been halted and reversed on the 12z GFS

Agreed, the more energy we have to the SW the more the block will be supported and also more cold we get under the block heading west the better. The 12Z is a slight improvement, with -10C uppers making a more widespread appearance in the far SE and also the high ever so slightly further north.

Looking further ahead the low around Newfoundland at T+96 gets stalled around Greenland forregression of heights NW and a negative NAO, but this is a while off so can still change.

[shaky]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013021712/UW144-21.GIF?17-17

Snow into England from the Continent- northern extent difficult to say-

S

defo shift northwards steve on both models!!am actually quite happy now!!snow showers would be slightly more widespread now especially midlands southwards eastwards!!

[mcweather]

Wouldn't take many more shifts of a similar scale to improve things on the ground for many of us.

Indeed ST perhaps the saving grace of the currently modelled situation is that it only takes small changes to make big differences.

As per Steve M'S post regarding theUKMO 144 above.

[Ice Day]

Some straws to clutch. As CC posted a little earlier, at least the trend south has been reversed on this run both from UKMO and GFS. IF this trend was to continue, those further north might start to get interested again. Let's see what the ECM has to say, can it keep the trend going?

[Guest bjaykent]

12z Improvement to cold uppers compared to 6z

[Phantom2]

I think the output from the ECM later will be crucial for the sanity of some in here ! ..so far so good with the GFS & UKMO 12z showing a shift North by a just a little.

BTW good to see Mr Murr back.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Phantom2

[SMU]

Thanks for the couple of Emails I got today-

NAVGEM & GEM in particular look like morphing into EPIC runs tonight although they are just at the 78 stage - everything is alligned very well-

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not without interest even in FI

[Derecho]

12z Improvement to cold uppers compared to 6z

More notable is the change of alignment of the direction of the cold uppers too, heading in a westerly direction rather then south westerly, I'd be surprised if this was the start of the trend given the past few runs but fingers crossed for you guys in the SE, small margins could mean notable upgrades if you get lucky.

[mcweather]

Not without interest even in FI

Indeed CC is that retrogression I see before me lol

oh dear not quite

Edited February 17, 2013 by mcweather

[seabreeze86]

Was just about to post the GEM at 78 hours steve so will do it anyway, looking like it will be a stormer.

http://modeles.meteo...gem-0-78.png?12

Edit, And it is -10 air from the Humber southwards right down the east coast.

Edited February 17, 2013 by seabreeze86

[nick sussex]

The 120 to 144hrs still looks crucial with that energy in the Med, a bit more development of that Genoa Low and a bit further north could really help matters for the UK.Overall though at least this southwards trend has stopped.