winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[Guest bjaykent]

I think the atmosphere in here will be transformed come tuesday evening. For me this is one Easterly that is being underplayed by the models before it really gets going. An increasing depth to the low pressure forming in the western Med which does not progress as far east as currently modelled will, I believe, hold the key

Nice uppers showing for 22nd, little shift north would liven the place up, will be interesting to see what these maps look like after the next set of runs!

[Don]

I think the atmosphere in here will be transformed come tuesday evening. For me this is one Easterly that is being underplayed by the models before it really gets going. An increasing depth to the low pressure forming in the western Med which does not progress as far east as currently modelled will, I believe, hold the key

Well, there's still time for things to upgrade I suppose. For now, I'm going to keep an open mind about next week.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Don

[Frosty.]

when you say snow flurries in east how far north would they be im in the wash area

I think they will be all up the eastern side of the uk, most of them near the coast but some inland too.

[london-snow]

Nice uppers showing for 22nd, little shift north would liven the place up, will be interesting to see what these maps look like after the next set of runs!

Bank that chart while we both can. Yes i do hope to see a trend a little further north but not too far north.

Places south of the M4 has had some bad luck this winter while areas north have benefited in the last few cold spells.

The trouble with easterlys past it seems we ( SE ) are either too far south to benefit or too far north which we may be on this potential situation.

We cannot afford any further trending south in regards to the high & its placement as it will simply squeeze & force it over to central & northern france.

Let's hope the 12z starts to correct the high further north.

Edited February 17, 2013 by london-snow

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel...hp?mode=2&ech=6

looks like the weather going into quiet mood!!! for a wile

Edited February 17, 2013 by tinybill

[shaky]

20 mins left till the all important 12z 😳!!will the high get excited and move slightly north or will it be a lazy bugger and just park its bum over the uk?to be continued....................

[IDO]

http://www.meteociel...hp?mode=2&ech=6

looks like the weather going into quiet mood!!! for a wile

Yes, we are in the settled part of an Omega Block:

More favourable at the weekend, so the SE may get some CAA: as the block shifts west.

[legritter]

As we stand theres still a good chance of something wintry later this week .we dont know yet the position of the high and low pressure to the south we could totally see different synoptics being modelled come this evening and tomorrow .many of us have got our sites set too high including snow mad me .but look at the fax chart 120from last night as i said if that was forecast for 23rd december it would be melt down on here .if nothing of great importance is going to happen lets say next mon 25th of feb nothing realy concrete would be modelled right now .we will have cold air in place gang ,so all to play for .read between the lines on met update , its a hard path to snow, we just need to be patient ,hope for a few clues in GFS Run coming up .

[SLEETY]

I quite agree, RD.

When you consider that the caution, coming from the more-knowledgeable members (John Holmes, Ian Ferguson et. al.) as it did, was entirely justified: indeed, the forecast skew-T/lapse rate conditions have never looked favorable with respect to much in the way of heavy convective, widespread snowfalls...

I wish they did though...

...

Surely it's best to wait until the cold spell has finished before writing of the chances of heavy convective, widespread snowfalls in some areas.

Which is still FOUR days away.before it has even began

It may not look too promising at the moment,but their is still plenty of time for things to change.

Edited February 17, 2013 by SLEETY

[swfc]

Surely it's best to wait until the cold spell has finished before writing of the chances of heavy convective, widespread snowfalls in some areas.

Which is still FOUR days away.before it has even began

It may not look too promising at the moment,but their is still plenty of time for things to change.

There seems very little evidence for it to change tho looking at the nhp.Id love to see the high move north then retrogress towards greenland but if anything the high is slipping south!heres hoping anyway

[Methuselah]

Surely it's best to wait until the cold spell has finished before writing of the chances of heavy convective, widespread snowfalls in some areas.

Which is still FOUR days away.before it has even began

It may not look too promising at the moment,but their is still plenty of time for things to change.

I agree, Sleety: we can never be certain of anything. It's just that current indications do not suggest it...

[PB22]

12z GFS has things ever so slightly further north at T+48, conversely 12z UKMO have things slightly further south so much of a muchness really.

GFS T+48:

UKMO T+48:

[Cheshire Freeze]

At this early stage could be a slightly better run. Slightly more energy going underneath and slight shift north of high

[swfc]

The area of low pressure pushing into scan is leaving the high know option than to move south at 78 hours.It can only then"for an improvement"move towards the atlantic then push north!

[Ice Day]

Hmm, subtle changes but 90hrs is looking better aligned to me. The high over Scotland a bit further north

and uppers a definite improvement at 96

Edited February 17, 2013 by Ice Day

[Cheshire Freeze]

Hmm, subtle changes but 90hrs is looking better aligned to me. The high over Scotland a bit further north

Subtle differences but much better overall. More energy escaping east under the block.

[london-snow]

Okay up to 96+ on the gfs & it is thus far a ever so slight shift north say 50 miles but its a good baby step.

Again good run for the south east thus far.

[itsnowjoke]

Please stick to the models.

Almost all of the last few pages had absolutely nothing to do with them. If any of your posts arent here anymore from the last couple of hours then thats why. People dont want to spend ages reading through tantrums, bickering and arguing about what this thread should contain.

Yes well i posted earlier stating that winter might not be over as i have had snow as late as April then i notice that 2 people have quoted on it only to find that i cant read them as they have gone.

Least mine was weather related

[shaky]

Hmm, subtle changes but 90hrs is looking better aligned to me. The high over Scotland a bit further north

and uppers a definite improvement at 96

Thats a lovely upgrade of uppers for most of england!!so folks we still in with a chance!!

[PB22]

Everything is slightly further north and east by T+102:

We need to watch around T+120 and see if the Azores High links up to the high to our north again...if so it could be the major spoiler again. Early signs are that it won't.

UKMO T+72 shows little change from its earlier ideas:

[seabreeze86]

The change on the GFS comes at 78hrs as the low going under the block throws of a shortwave proping up the block making it ajust slightly further north.

Lets hope its onto something

[SMU]

UKMO 72 has a modest -4c air arriving in the EAST

but the 12pm temps of only 1c in Norfolk & 2c wide across the SE.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U72-580.GIF?17-16

I wonder what it will be if the -12c gets across.....

at least it will be dry

S

Edited February 17, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Ice Day]

Comparison of 108hrs - 12z vs 6z (12z on left). Big difference, much better

[Cheshire Freeze]

The change on the GFS comes at 78hrs as the low going under the block throws of a shortwave proping up the block making it ajust slightly further north.

http://modeles.meteo...gfs-0-78.png?12

Lets hope its onto something

Yep let's hope this a new trend. I wouldn't mind an increase in energy to the SW as it would lead to a greater pressure differential and increased flow from the east....as is illustrated by the 12z. The main factor of importance is the trend of the last 24 hours has been halted and reversed on the 12z GFS

Edited February 17, 2013 by CreweCold

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel...96-21.GIF?17-17

A shift north from the UKMO & a flow condusive to modest snow showers along the home counties in ~ -11c air.

Also snow flurries in the Southern coastal regions & up towards dartmoor. + Jersey.

S

Edited February 17, 2013 by Steve Murr