winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

NAVGEM info

The next generation of the NWP. In laymans terms we can look forward to more advanced pap.

[TEITS]

Delighted with the 12Zs

Brilliant +144 from the ECM which would see snow showers spreading well inland, not just the SE!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

[kev238]

The charts look interesting for end of week ESP for south east of uk. Everywhere else needs a northern correction to bring them into the party as well. Looks a long shot for areas north of the midland but southern third of uk in with a shot of some snow showers by the end of the week.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021712/ECM1-144.GIF?17-0

As expected the wave over france kinking NW into the UK.....

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021712/ECF0-144.GIF?17-0

-10c air still....

At least it will be dry.....

[karlos1983]

+144 looking much better for cold/snow on the ECM!!!

[Ice Day]

It's getting there at 144. Look at those uppers, minus 10's across much of England

[The Eagle]

Nice ECM 144

A slight upgrade overall. Hopefully the small steps continue.

[goosey007]

???yes i know that and the northern movement remains minimal !!

but its no longer moving south!!!

[snowflakey]

http://www.meteociel...CM1-96.GIF?17-0

So the first power ECM chart is out-

540 heights into Kent, -10c air & a stiff Easterly wind = snow flurries building....

ECM has now upgraded the 850's over in the continent to -13C at 96...

Could we scrape a -13c at 120....- only 2c away from Feb 1991- & the coldest upper air since Feb 2005-

S

Sorry to interrupt with a silly question, but by my reckoning, a 540 heights with a 1025 millibar roughly translates to (540-25=515) a 515 Dam ?

[nick sussex]

It really is nerve shredding if you're in the UK following these cold pools coming out of the continent with the snow potential on a knife edge.The one thing that hasn't downgraded is the cold pool to the east which is better than a few days back on the ECM.

The cold pool is still going strong with the low in the northern Med pivoting and throwing some instability nw towards the UK at 144hrs.

Really not bad at all from the ECM so far, a bit further north and there could be some real fireworks.

[cold snap]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Not bad at 144 vast improvement

The winter refuses to stop the interest going could be epic at 168

[london-snow]

144+ none to shabby overall definite upgrade & trend to place the high a tad further north from the 12z.

If we can maintain & continue from here then all hope may not be lost for those further north.

[bradymk]

ECM 144 a good chart, happy that a lot more members would be seeing some snow showers from that chart if it were to verify. Nothing for my area although -9c uppers here is quite impressive. V cold for all, -9c widely, -10c south east.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I would think most of England and parts of Wales has a shot at snow moving E-W on that ECM 144 chart

[PB22]

T+168:

Another improvement for the cold/snow prospects.

[TEITS]

but its no longer moving south!!!

That is what is pleasing me this most about the 12Zs so far. I really did fear the worst this morning but the slide S has halted.

The best aspect of the ECM +144 chart is the E,ly flow now has a N,ly element to it which would spread those showers much further inland. A NE/ENE,ly has always been the best wind direction for the UK generally.

[london-snow]

but its no longer moving south!!!

That was my point i was trying to make to him goosey, unfortunately he thought i was being a bit imby which i was not.

[shaky]

The ecmwf is an upgrade between 96 and 144 hours simple as!!

[cold snap]

Just push the whole pattern north and it snows

[lord stratus]

I would think most of England and parts of Wales has a shot at snow moving E-W on that ECM 144 chart

Northern extent probably the m4 corridor.

[SMU]

Sorry to interrupt with a silly question, but by my reckoning, a 540 heights with a 1025 millibar roughly translates to (540-25=515) a 515 Dam ?

Roughly 500 height-((SLP-1000)*0.8

so ~ 520 DAM

steady as she goes at 168......

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

Northern extent probably the m4 corridor.

Probably further north than that. Midlands probably. Who knows though, could be further shifts N yet

[goosey007]

I would think most of England and parts of Wales has a shot at snow moving E-W on that ECM 144 chart

interesting CC ehen you say parts of wales do you think south east wales is in with a shot ! i think the charts at 144 seem to suggest so....exciting stuff after alot of doom and gloom in here today.........

[Cheshire Freeze]

do you think south east wales is in with a shot !

Yes, judging by the output this evening.

[Mair Snaw]

So an upgrade on the ecm 12z now if the gfs 18z continues and then the 00z do the same then this mornings doom n gloom will have faded into a distant memory, really goes to show that making massive things out of just one run really is not the way to go.... how many of this morning na sayers will be back here ramping the cold and snow up if any further north corrections happen before the morning??

Edited February 17, 2013 by bigsnow