winter model discussion Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

[SilverWolf]

Also since when has 7 days been a 'snap'?

BFTP

Thanks for flagging that up - I don't remember anyone moaning on this forum pre 2009 if 'only' 3 or 4 days of cold was being shown in the models, with a snow risk, let alone any more!

[Snowman.]

I'm going to miss the NOGAPS...

I don't actually think its going anywhere.

Could be wrong though.

[chris55]

I do think the GFS is bringing the Atlantic in too quickly, although it has been very consistent on this for several runs now. But with a mean chart like this at T+240 then it's still a long, long way off: http://modeles.meteo...21-1-240.png?12

Yea I didn't really inspect the ens that closely out in FI, and as you suggest the warmer 850s come from a southerly flow rather than an Atlantic onslaught. Though going from the last few operationals this seems to be a trend away from the Atlantic making inroads.

Okay folks having had time to digest the output thus far today i feel quietly confident.

Now this maybe something or nothing but its positive so i will go ahead and explain.

So following on from the 06z GFS which was not that bad of a run especially the further se you are i have viewed the following output :

NOGAPS ~ Excellent run as it sends the high northwards & stops the trend south.

NAVGEM ~ Virtually identical to the NOGAPS & again sends the high northwards thus allowing the main core of cold into england.

12z GFS ~ It has clearly stopped trending south with the placement of the high & starts correcting it further north. Baby steps but a good run.

UKMO ~ Quite similar to the GFS. Good run.

So what can we make of it?

Well until the ecm comes out i think its very good to see the southward placement of that high for the time being has stopped & is just starting to show signs to placing the high further north which is what you are after if you want cold & potential snow.

Think baby steps & hope that the ecm starts placing the high further northwards.

Hadn't seen NAVGEM, it;s a great run. Lets hope this new model is an improvement on the NOGAPS verification wise.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Where is NAVGEM please?

BFTP

[Snowman.]

ECM starting its trek out to the open world.

Will it move it northwards?

God hope so.

Where is NAVGEM please?

BFTP

Here http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php

[PB22]

12z ECM T+72: http://www.meteociel...CM1-72.GIF?17-0

Minimal changes.

T+96:

Again, limited changes evident.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Paul B

[SMU]

under the NOGAPS on meteociel

[Cloud 10]

I don't actually think its going anywhere.

Could be wrong though.

NOGAPS to be arrested.

NOGAPS will be arrested on 13 March 2013. NAVGEM model, its successor is available on the website here

NOGAPS will be stopped on March 13th 2013. The model replaces NAVGEM NOGAPS and is available on the website Already

[Polar Continental]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0

There you go mate.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021712/ECM1-96.GIF?17-0

So the first power ECM chart is out-

540 heights into Kent, -10c air & a stiff Easterly wind = snow flurries building....

ECM has now upgraded the 850's over in the continent to -13C at 96...

Could we scrape a -13c at 120....- only 2c away from Feb 1991- & the coldest upper air since Feb 2005-

S

[PB22]

T+120: http://www.meteociel...M1-120.GIF?17-0

The high a slight touch further north and slightly further east.

Edited February 17, 2013 by Paul B

[london-snow]

ECM 120+ now that's much better compared to its 00z.

Small differences = Big changes to what we receive !

[shaky]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021712/ECM1-96.GIF?17-0

So the first power ECM chart is out-

540 heights into Kent, -10c air & a stiff Easterly wind = snow flurries building....

ECM has now upgraded the 850's over in the continent to -13C at 96...

Could we scrape a -13c at 120....- only 2c away from Feb 1991- & the coldest upper air since Feb 2005-

S

Ecm looks good uppers wise at t120 -10 across a large swathe of england

[swfc]

northern movement on ecm at 120-hrs minimal

[chris55]

ECM 120, a little further north would be better, but overall a nice chart synopticly.

[Snowman.]

Ahh better still not amazing snow wise.

compared to

Edited February 17, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Who makes NAVGEM?

Edited February 17, 2013 by No balls like Snow Balls

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021712/ECM1-120.GIF?17-0

ECM 120 neglibile amounts further north west with the instability- ~ 50 miles over UKMO-

for Kent / SE across the south into the SW

Long easterly draw-

Heights ~ sub 540 DAM

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021712/ECF1-120.GIF?17-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013021712/ECF0-120.GIF?17-0 -11c Air

Lots of snow showers in this slice of the UK

S

[bradymk]

ECM 120+ now that's much better compared to its 00z.

Small differences = Big changes to what we receive !

be careful not to compare 12z 120 with 00z 144. Remember 12 hours difference. Comparing to yesterdays 12z 144, high is v slightly further north and east. -11c into East. A v cold week to come for France, Germany, Northern Italy etc. Edited February 17, 2013 by bradythemole

[in the vale]

Who makes NAVGEM?

Carlsberg.

[Cloud 10]

Who makes NAVGEM?

NAVGEM info

[london-snow]

northern movement on ecm at 120-hrs minimal

It may not look great for your location but the main point here is that the trend south has stopped & northward correction looks to be starting albeit very small steps.

[shaky]

be careful not to compare 12z 120 with 00z 144. Remember 12 hours difference. Comparing to yesterdays 12z 144, high is v slightly further north and east. -11c into East.

By tomorrow i think all models will he showing a strong snowy easterly for this upcoming week

[swfc]

It may not look great for your location but the main point here is that the trend south has stopped & northward correction looks to be starting albeit very small steps.

???yes i know that and the northern movement remains minimal !!

[PB22]

ECM T+144:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.html

Significant improvement for cold/snow.