Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

[Paul]

The point scoring in this thread is becoming a true pain in the backside, if you want to virtually square up to eachother please do it privately as this continued battle of the ego needs to stop in here.

[mcweather]

Have to agree with you Quicksilver, the overall trend on the more reliable models including the ecm is away from the amount of retrogression required to get the potent north or northeasterly being shown a couple of days ago. It will be interesting to see what the ECM does tonight but I'm not really expecting it to flip towards really cold synoptics again. I would put the chances of that at no more than 20%.

[bluearmy]

Given the spreads on the 00z ecm, I would expect the 12z to have a brief northerly around day 7. Could be quite potent over ne scotland though less marked as you head sw. Quite honestly, I can't work out why any op is surprising anyone at the moment.

[bryan629]

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Mar 2013 to Sunday 10 Mar 2013:

Rather cloudy on Friday, the cloud thick enough for a little light rain or drizzle in places, but mostly dry. More widespread rain reaching the far northwest later on Friday, before moving southwards across the UK on Saturday, but becoming increasingly light and patchy. Clearer skies with wintry showers following into northeastern areas later on Saturday, persisting through Sunday, and perhaps a few wintry showers for some Irish Sea coasts as well. Northwestern areas remain unsettled and a little less cold, but elsewhere conditions mainly fine and dry into next week, with the best of any sunshine towards the south and east. Temperatures generally near or a little below average at first, turning cold, locally very cold in the northeast for a time, then generally a little less cold later.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Mar 2013 to Monday 25 Mar 2013:

Most areas are likely to stay colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some northwestern areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual, whereas southern and eastern districts will perhaps be wetter than normal.

Issued at: 1600 on Sun 24 Feb 2013

looks kinda promising this outlook., does this spell a northerly?

[legritter]

I just feel at the moment that some type of northerly will turn up around 8/10 days from now .modells been hinting and met office further outlook also hinting .as for GFS wild swings will continue i feel but i reckon come tuesday ECM will start to show some good cold charts and GFS will gradually follow ,gfs can sometimes be an all over the place modell but at 4 times per day run ,not bad for free .also on canadian site a lot of talk of major pressure change in their outlook so lets hope we can squeeze something out of the arctic before our spring arrives in the UK .so keep the good spirits up gang we are all in this together and there is still time for something special . I saw our Dutch poster today coming out of local tesco ,he had loads of snow shuvvels and bags of salt ,he muttered something about a massive polar vortex dropping down on uk with a DAMM LINE below 480 in english channel causing the sea to freeze over and us lot skating over to his country ,catch up later after ecm and uk met cheers

[mushymanrob]

the 12z gfs might suggest milder weather is a week away, i expect the ecm will not support it

[nick sussex]

Looking at the GEFS ensembles they seem to have gone steadily downhill today from a cold perspective. I wonder whether the models underplayed that energy around southern Greenland and have now picked up on that.

The UKMO looks similar to the earlier 00hrs run but it does look a bit flabby to the west so its going to be hard to advect the cold very far south, the ECM is out shortly, the ECM postage stamps earlier did still have a decent cluster that brought the colder air further south.

If the ECM goes with a northerly then its back to where we've been for much of the winter with large model disagreements.

[Captain Shortwave]

Just looked at the charts, wow gfs is shocking for cold, love how it completely blows up the low to our north in the mid range. I will take that run as a rogue one for now until it shows some consistency. I would say a brief northerly is still the form horse as it looks like the way UK Met are going too based on the week ahead forecast at lunch (colder next weekend). Still lets see what the ecm comes out with. If it backs the gfs then it might be time to wind down the winter ramping and look towards the fun mix of spring synoptics we can get (warm and cold)

[Timmytour]

Isn't it about time we called a halt to all the forecaster-bashing? Hands-up, everyone who's never made a rash prediction, be it for snow, gales, thunderstorms or hurricanes or Indian summers?

One reason I love living on these islands is the unpredictability of the weather. And it's certainly a good reason for coming onto these forums.

No harm in people putting forward their assessment of what the models are showing or trending towards. But it seems to me ridiculous to knock the opinions of others. None of us know what will ultimately happen and even those who get paid to give their opinions are not immune from getting it wrong nor from the pressure that results upon them as a result, - which makes a couple of sniping posts on here look like a bunch of flowers!

[Snowman.]

Much cleaner ECM

As long as energy doesn't spill over the top of it it's fine.

[Bobd29]

One reason I love living on these islands is the unpredictability of the weather. And it's certainly a good reason for coming onto these forums.

No harm in people putting forward their assessment of what the models are showing or trending towards. But it seems to me ridiculous to knock the opinions of others. None of us know what will ultimately happen and even those who get paid to give their opinions are not immune from getting it wrong nor from the pressure that results upon them as a result, - which makes a couple of sniping posts on here look like a bunch of flowers!

Like this, but about the charts and forecasts....keep an eye on the faxes and the 528dam; absent for a few days but if there is to be a potent nthly the 528 will sink way south.

[peterf]

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Mar 2013 to Sunday 10 Mar 2013:

Rather cloudy on Friday, the cloud thick enough for a little light rain or drizzle in places, but mostly dry. More widespread rain reaching the far northwest later on Friday, before moving southwards across the UK on Saturday, but becoming increasingly light and patchy. Clearer skies with wintry showers following into northeastern areas later on Saturday, persisting through Sunday, and perhaps a few wintry showers for some Irish Sea coasts as well. Northwestern areas remain unsettled and a little less cold, but elsewhere conditions mainly fine and dry into next week, with the best of any sunshine towards the south and east. Temperatures generally near or a little below average at first, turning cold, locally very cold in the northeast for a time, then generally a little less cold later.

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Mar 2013 to Monday 25 Mar 2013:

Most areas are likely to stay colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some northwestern areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual, whereas southern and eastern districts will perhaps be wetter than normal.

Issued at: 1600 on Sun 24 Feb 2013

looks kinda promising this outlook., does this spell a northerly?

NO!

[karyo]

Much cleaner ECM

As long as energy doesn't spill over the top of it it's fine.

Pressure is higher west of the UK than in Greenland - not good!

Karyo

[Snowman.]

Pressure is higher west of the UK than in Greenland - not good!

Karyo

I was merely pointing out the lack of Kinks that we saw in the 0z.

Not to bothered about a Northerly.

[Captain Shortwave]

T120

Pretty similar to UKMO at this time frame.

UKMO

Edited February 24, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[nick sussex]

You can see the problem between 96 and 120hrs, the high edges east and doesn't retrogress,by this time the shortwave to the north is not tracking se but more east.

That shortwave needs to go se but because the high is stuck over the UK that's not going to happen. Unless another shortwave can track over the top and se then I think its probably game over for the northerly.

Overall within the more reliable timeframe it looks quiet and settled, temps close to average but frosty at night in any clearer spells.

Edited February 24, 2013 by nick sussex

[Snowman.]

Better still not there.

Shortwave around iceland needs to go.

Edited February 24, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[karyo]

I've seen enough up to 168 hours, edging away from a northerly with every output!

Karyo

[nick sussex]

What we've seen from the models over recent days is a continuation of their longer timeframe bias during the winter where once again they've underestimated energy over southern Greenland.

The shortwaves forming there are unlikely to disappear now that they've been picked up by the operational runs. It is still however not the shutting of the door on any colder weather further out because a lot of energy is still heading in towards the Med.

[chris55]

Well with the potential northerly now gone, and with all the deep cold going to the east, my winter towel is nearly thrown in. Still possibilities as the overall synoptic pattern is interesting, but to be frank winter is very nearly gone for another year. Roll on a settled and gorgeous May.

[karyo]

What we've seen from the models over recent days is a continuation of their longer timeframe bias during the winter where once again they've underestimated energy over southern Greenland.

The shortwaves forming there are unlikely to disappear now that they've been picked up by the operational runs. It is still however not the shutting of the door on any colder weather further out because a lot of energy is still heading in towards the Med.

It seems to me though that the possibility for the northerly was/is in the 144 hour timeframe and after that a west based -NAO is likely to set-in. So a lose lose situation.

Karyo

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Well with the potential northerly now gone, and with all the deep cold going to the east, my winter towel is nearly thrown in. Still possibilities as the overall synoptic pattern is interesting, but to be frank winter is very nearly gone for another year. Roll on a settled and gorgeous May.

Thinking the same mate, however the fun and games will begin again in around 9 months time. Can't wait

Edited February 24, 2013 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[nick sussex]

I wish these models would stop dangling the carrot at the end! As we've seen from the ECM enough energy goes se and eventually the low clears off to leave an interesting scenario at day 10.

I'd be a bit wary of this because the ECM manages to not phase the energy moving ne with that low moving south, you'd need I think more energy heading se and that low further east to mitigate against a poor phasing outcome.

[Frosty.]

LOL yeah it looks like my late feb 2006 pattern match has gone for a burton but lets be optimistic, the meto are still forecasting a colder than average march and that would include some snow opportunities depending on low pressure tracks, and why are some of us mourning this virtual northerly that only existed in some outlier on the computer models, if it was never going to happen in the first place, it's no loss is it!

Edited February 24, 2013 by Frosty039

[nick sussex]

It seems to me though that the possibility for the northerly was/is in the 144 hour timeframe and after that a west based -NAO is likely to set-in. So a lose lose situation.

Karyo

The problem was that the models started off with a cleaner transition, then they threw in a shortwave which they managed to originally track more favourably, and now they've found another shortwave! So the area around southern Greenland is like the Alien Queen popping out shortwave pods! Wheres Ripley?!!!

Yes the neg NAO becomes western based but then the ECM decides to raise pressure just enough at the end to force the jet further south with just enough energy going se for an undercut. To be honest Karyo I'm beginning to suffer model fatigue and I'm not sure whether I've got the endurance for another longwinded saga!

Edited February 24, 2013 by nick sussex