Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

[Purga]

I wish these models would stop dangling the carrot at the end! As we've seen from the ECM enough energy goes se and eventually the low clears off to leave an interesting scenario at day 10.

I'd be a bit wary of this because the ECM manages to not phase the energy moving ne with that low moving south, you'd need I think more energy heading se and that low further east to mitigate against a poor phasing outcome.

The ECM shows HP sliping away to it's favourite SE home rather than where it should be going - NW!

Well it'll give Nick Sussex an early taste of Spring - barbie in the Pyrennes

[Methuselah]

Can I really be the only one who'd enjoy a spell of warmer-than-average weather, sometime during the next few weeks? That said, and taking into account the MetO's thoughts, something on the cold side looks far more likely...

Uncertainty is the form horse, though?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Can I really be the only one who'd enjoy a spell of warmer-than-average weather, sometime during the next few weeks?That said, and taking into account the MetO's thoughts, something on the cold side looks far more likely...

Uncertainty is the form horse, though?

No, in a way I would now, as long as its dry, that is another 'THAT ECM' this winter that was wrong the other night, makes me wonder this model is useless in FI producing unrealistic fantasy charts

[Panayiotis]

What a change 48hrs brings hey! It seemed we were looking at a northerly developing at the start of March and now its nearly non existent! Straw clutches I could find are from the JMA,CMA:

And the ECM has backtracked from yesterday's left over energy to the south of Greenland:

So im going to leave it until Wednesday if things dont look colder/snowier im happy to chuck in the towel for this winter, and put my spring/summer hat on!

[karyo]

Yes the neg NAO becomes western based but then the ECM decides to raise pressure just enough at the end to force the jet further south with just enough energy going se for an undercut. To be honest Karyo I'm beginning to suffer model fatigue and I'm not sure whether I've got the endurance for another longwinded saga!

I know what you mean Nick. It's been a winter of frustration for me despite being a little below average.

Karyo

[weather eater]

I wish these models would stop dangling the carrot at the end! As we've seen from the ECM enough energy goes se and eventually the low clears off to leave an interesting scenario at day 10.

I'd be a bit wary of this because the ECM manages to not phase the energy moving ne with that low moving south, you'd need I think more energy heading se and that low further east to mitigate against a poor phasing outcome.

Think of it as a turnip not a carrot, then you can ignore the end frames

[bluearmy]

i see my predicted ecm northerly was indeed brief !!

getting fatigued now but the ridge that the op chucks into the arctic n canada day 10 is quite impressive and must have consequences for the hemispheric pattern. there are sniffs of this feature on some gefs members and the ens means have a weak ridging there. i'd say one to watch but i'm fed up looking now and not looking forward to a couple of weeks of chilly conditions. would rather have some warm sunshine now.

[Tim Bland]

Ouch...GFS ensembles are a kick in the gonads for the south. Think I'm giving up on seeing anything sustained now. Hoping we see some form of northerly bringing convective snow showers before April is out though

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

[nick sussex]

It can often feel like after the lord mayors show in here at this time of the winter season. We're in that transition period between still being able to see snow falling but also realizing that winter walks on crunchy snow are less and less likely unless of course you're on higher ground or a mountain.

So its a strange one really, because for the UK at this time of the year you need to be chasing the coldest source of air and as we've seen from the easterly even when you get decent uppers the set up isn't always condusive to convection.

I find March a funny month because if anything wintry pops up I'm always left thinking too late or how great would that set up have been in mid winter. Of course I know many members are just happy to get snow anytime and March can still produce that so I expect there'll still be a few opportunities during the month for the UK.

[Timmytour]

Well with the potential northerly now gone, and with all the deep cold going to the east, my winter towel is nearly thrown in. Still possibilities as the overall synoptic pattern is interesting, but to be frank winter is very nearly gone for another year. Roll on a settled and gorgeous May.

Don't worry, Summer will soon be here,

I think it falls on a Wednesday this year.

[Frosty.]

Think of it as a turnip not a carrot

Theres always something new to learn from the latest model output.

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the report of the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for tonight Sunday February 24th 2013.

All models show the UK under the influence of High pressure currently situated over Scandinavia. The centre drifts across to the UK by midweek and close to NW Britain by the end of the week. The cold NE flow over the South will moderate over the coming days with temperatures gradually on the climb through the week though things will remain on the cold side of normal with a lot of cloud in the sky for much of the time.

GFS then shows High pressure sliding SE over the UK at the weekend and on into Europe leaving a ridge from it extending West over the UK. The weather remaining fine with a lot of cloud still and temperatures just slightly shy of normal. through FI the pattern remains similar for a while as SE winds strengthen somewhat with rain bearing fronts held at bay for a time before they encroach into the UK from the West on a Southerly breezy with milder air for all with rain at times to end the run.

The GFS Ensembles show good support tonight for the evolution of uppers rising to levels somewhat above the long term mean and maintaining their position throughout the rest of the run. It looks a dry run for most with the majority of any rain not occurring until late in the run and therefore well into FI.

The Jet Stream shows the pattern as before with the ridge North of the flow just to the West strengthening the Northern arm for a time before the link becomes severed with the main Jet flow then positioned strongly South from a position South of the Azores across Southern Europe.

UKMO tonight shows High pressure from the South of Greenland to Scotland with slack winds over the UK with fine and dry conditions for many following a band of light rainfall drifting South over Scotland late in the week with some wintry showers in the Northern Isles later.

ECM shows High pressure maintained over Scotland at the end of the week.Consequently the weather will remain largely dry and a little on the chilly side with frost at night under any clear skies. The cold NE flow over the South of the UK will die away by Friday with a light North or NW drift more likely then. Over the weekend High pressure drifts ESE into Europe but maintains a ridge across Britain all the way to Canada leaving the UK under largely dry conditions with all the active weather occurring down to the SW and way to the North of the UK with continuing rather cloudy and benign conditions over a large swathe of the UK. By Day 10 the weather slowly looks like becoming milder and wetter as Southerly winds track slowly North behind a trough of Low pressure.

In Summary tonight High pressure looks like remaining in control in it's entirety through Week 1 drifting slowly West towards the North of the UK later in the week 2. UKMO still looks like it wants to retrogress the High to the NW while ECM follows GFS in removing it slowly away to the East of the UK in Week 2 bringing a SE flow into the SW and maintaining a tenuous ridge across Central Britain. It doesn't look like there will be much in the way of precipitation over the coming 2 weeks from what's on offer tonight though both GFS and ECM offer a more spring like Southerly ingress at the end of their runs with attendant frontal rain.

[bluearmy]

I'd love to be able to report the ecm ens mean straightforward in fi. However, the spreads late in the run offer a scandi depression off the norwegian coast and a coldish nw flow. The mean does not with a south or southeast flow ahead of the atlantic trough into western europe. place your bets!

[weather eater]

Theres always something new to learn from the latest model output.

I would say sometimes, most of the time it just reinforces what you already know and that is that whatever the models say in the extended range will change, even if they appear to have support from the ensembles or consistency. I wonder how many mid range plus synoptic evolutions I seen over the last 8 years that had good support from the ensembles that appeared consistent, only to fall over in high res, truck loads I should think. Mid range plus charts fuel pages and pages of speculation, discussion and argument on this thread, most of which we all enjoy hugely, but the truth is for all of those words, the casual reader who is looking for an extended forecast will still have little clue past 120hr most of the time, despite reading all our combined thinking and despite the fact that we have some excellent model readers. People often say on these pages “I wish it was like the old days when the weather in a week’s time would be a mystery, before all the computer models, well frequently it still is despite them, and long may that continue.

[BARRY]

I would say sometimes, most of the time it just reinforces what you already know and that is that whatever the models say in the extended range will change, even if they appear to have support from the ensembles or consistency. I wonder how many mid range plus synoptic evolutions I seen over the last 8 years that had good support from the ensembles that appeared consistent, only to fall over in high res, truck loads I should think. Mid range plus charts fuel pages and pages of speculation, discussion and argument on this thread, most of which we all enjoy hugely, but the truth is for all of those words, the casual reader who is looking for an extended forecast will still have little clue past 120hr most of the time, despite reading all our combined thinking and despite the fact that we have some excellent model readers. People often say on these pages “I wish it was like the old days when the weather in a week’s time would be a mystery, before all the computer models, well frequently it still is despite them, and long may that continue.

I still think a lot of it comes down to now casting, 3 days is still a long time in weather forecasting despite all the computer power we have at our finger tips.

[phil nw.]

Yes i think can include myself in that end of season feeling coupled with model fatigue.

I will say though that we have had some really interesting charts this Winter because of the borderline setups often shown.I am sure this has kept us all both frustrated and fascinated at the same time.It`s a shame that not everyone has perhaps had the weather they wished for.

We know early Spring can still bring quite wintry conditions but are aware that as we go further into March the setup has to be just right to get the coldest air to the UK.

The Northerly that was shown on some earlier operational outputs did look promising but It`s no surprise that as we have got closer the models have dropped the idea.The mean outputs for some days have shown the colder plunge going further east which again underlines the changes that often occur in the later frames of the operational runs.

This week looks pretty cold but dry under high pressure but if we look at the means for T192hrs we can signs of the high slipping away to the continent in week 2.

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-192.png?12

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?24-0

this brings a flow more from the south or south east but as it looks a gradual change it could well remain quite settled for a few more days and with temps.moving up somewhat,especially further south.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Definitely a slight warm up on the cards next week, slightly below ave temps still though. Below ave rain next week and for the foreseeable, small signs in the ECM ensembles that it may become wetter from mid March onwards. +5 uppers knocking on the door of the UK right at the end of the run on the GFS. Is spring springing!!

[JP1972]

Yes i think can include myself in that end of season feeling coupled with model fatigue.

I will say though that we have had some really interesting charts this Winter because of the borderline setups often shown.I am sure this has kept us all both frustrated and fascinated at the same time.It`s a shame that not everyone has perhaps had the weather they wished for.

We know early Spring can still bring quite wintry conditions but are aware that as we go further into March the setup has to be just right to get the coldest air to the UK.

The Northerly that was shown on some earlier operational outputs did look promising but It`s no surprise that as we have got closer the models have dropped the idea.The mean outputs for some days have shown the colder plunge going further east which again underlines the changes that often occur in the later frames of the operational runs.

This week looks pretty cold but dry under high pressure but if we look at the means for T192hrs we can signs of the high slipping away to the continent in week 2.

http://modeles.meteo...21-1-192.png?12

http://www.meteociel...H1-192.GIF?24-0

this brings a flow more from the south or south east but as it looks a gradual change it could well remain quite settled for a few more days and with temps.moving up somewhat,especially further south.

It's funny really (not in a haha funny kind of way) but maybe it's coincidental with me hitting 40 last year but ...

I used to stress over will it or won't it snow winter after winter (mostly during the arid late 90's and 00's), but this year I haven't and we've had lots of snowfalls here in Newcastle.

I kind of accept that no matter how much one scrutinses the charts and chase the dream in FI, what will be will be.

I do however firmly believe that if one craves snow that badly, one could always move location and then we wouldn't have a MO thread filled with stress, emotion and IMBYism.

Off topic and no doubt deleted before too long, but I'm only telling the truth!

[snowking]

Well the closest match tonight for the 11-15 day means from the GEM/GFS suites comes from the ECMWF day 10 operational:

Note the positioning of the low height anomalies to our SW - these don't fit in with the GFS 12z op, for example, out towards day 15:

You can also see the slightly higher than normal heights to our NW - again, a story consistent with the ECMWF.

In truth where that would leave us is really in no mans land at that stage - where we are likely to go thereafter? Well, to me it looks a fairly similar setup to January, with a battle-line drawn through Northern England. The difference being, with this now heading towards mid March, any snow likely to be restricted to higher ground.

The only thing I would point out is a shift 300 miles east or so would give a rather different story - equally, a shift 300 miles west (both perfectly plausible at such range) would ensure something far milder.

Given face value ensemble mean heights at present, the story into the 11-15 day period for me would be very chilly and wet - the sort of thing I think just about all of us would like to avoid! Hopefully we see some corrective shifts one way or another in the coming days

SK

[phil nw.]

It's funny really (not in a haha funny kind of way) but maybe it's coincidental with me hitting 40 last year but ...

I used to stress over will it or won't it snow winter after winter (mostly during the arid late 90's and 00's), but this year I haven't and we've had lots of snowfalls here in Newcastle.

I kind of accept that no matter how much one scrutinses the charts and chase the dream in FI, what will be will be.

I do however firmly believe that if one craves snow that badly, one could always move location and then we wouldn't have a MO thread filled with stress, emotion and IMBYism.

Off topic and no doubt deleted before too long, but I'm only telling the truth!

Yes i think many of the outputs have proved more exciting than the eventual weather as often happens when seeking cold and snow in a UK Winter.

I believe that a lot of enjoyment is gained by many of us in simply viewing and discussing the model runs even when we realise that they don`t after all dictate the final outcome.

After 50 years of looking at weather charts of all kinds i have learned that a sense of perspective and a balanced approach is required to avoid the need for Nick`s prozac and i am sure many of our regulars as well as yourself have that view.

Anyway i had better stop rambling now as i am drifting off topic.

Edited February 24, 2013 by phil nw.

[bluearmy]

naefs 12z looks like a pretty cold second week march. High anomoy to our north looks pretty strong just ne of iceland. If there are low enough uppers to our east then not sure you can rule out snowfall away from hills.

[Snowman.]

Lol not a single comment on the GFS run

[Purga]

Lol not a single comment on the GFS run

Probably because from t144

it's just a slow descent into mediocrity

and a mild wet FI typified by

[bradymk]

As many on here think our current weather is boring, excluding the -13 850hpa obviously, I have been taking a look at events on the other side of the pond. Some real severe life threatening events coming here through the next couple of hours and into Tuesday. SW Kansas, NW Oklahoma, parts of texas and colorado and many other surrounding areas are going to be worse hit by a severe winter storm which will bring blizzard whiteout conditions and potentially record snowfall. NAM suggesting 20-30" of snow for some parts with drifts much higher with strong winds. Another huge snow event for USA but the great plains worse affected this time rather than the north east. Might be worth taking a look at some webcams in NW Oklahoma tomorrow, could see some epic snowfall and accumulation and expect more great time lapses.

[Panayiotis]

There are some definitely colder solutions in the ensembles tonight for my area the 12z had only 2 members going for ~-5C uppers now there 5-6.Positve sign however it is again another straw to clutch onto until the end of meteorological winter!