Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/2/13 onwards.

[PB22]

Proof, if it were needed, of the uncertainty for later in the week. At T+144 the 12z GFS has low pressure to the north and west of Iceland:

The 06Z GFS had pressure of circa 1025mb - 1030mb over Iceland!

[Snowman.]

lol

Way to much energy around Greenland I did say the other day to be careful as the GFS is usually better at these Northerlies.

[PB22]

Naturally, the 12z UKMO is rather different, and more in line with its 00z output:

T+120: http://www.meteociel...20-21.GIF?24-17

The far northeast may catch a slight northerly if the T+144 chart is to be believed:

Overall it looks like a pretty nondescript end to the week.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Paul B

[mcweather]

either you have most of us on 'ignore' or you haven't read the thread properly mc. 84 hours of sub -10 c uppers cannot be dismissed as 'watered down next to nothing'. there has to be to this than just looking for deep snow. from my point of view, this sustained period of very cold uppers is more of an event than a 6" snowfall. i can look back on several of those this past few years. i cannot recall an 84 hour period of those low uppers. i await the answer as to the last time it occurred.

Not at all Blue Army I read all posts with interest especially your own. I actually wasn't referring to the current situation but the increasingly watered down potential northerly hence my piece about not taking charts beyond 144 showing wondrous things seriously until they come within a decent timeframe.

As for the current spell minus 10 uppers for 84 hours is great and may well be out of the ordinary in itself but it has produced nothing out of the ordinary weatherwise down here on the ground where we all live. I have not recorded an ice day or anything more than a moderate frost (minus 2 at most) I would imagine that goes for the majority of cloud bound England as well. The vast majority have seen no significant snowfall or extreme temps for that matter.

Technically interesting though it is as an atmospheric exercise. As a cold spell it is not making any waves whatsoever. I would expect the great majority of people on here wouldn't mind the raw cold with some bright clear skies or the raw cloudy weather with some real snow thrown in for good measure but raw cloudy nothingness seems a complete waste of a cold spell for me and I like winter weather.

Edited February 24, 2013 by mcweather

[karyo]

The 12z GFS is terrible, if like me you want to see a northerly! The high has moved east and it too strong allowing a cold plunge towards Greece.

Continuous cyclogenesis between Greenland and Iceland is not helping things for us.

Karyo

[Snowman.]

Very messy

Look at that mess north.

Normally this would just delay some cold but seeing as it is March winter is going to have to end at some point.

You know what makes it worse?

We have no Atlantic at all so we can just blame the PV for this

Edited February 24, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Mucka]

GFS now going for more of a sinking high than one that retrogresses which prevents the trough digging down and promotes the prospect of a Southwesterly regime developing rather than a Northeasterly in the long term.

Until then plenty of dry weather and if we can get some sunshine breaking through later next week it could feel quite pleasant, particularly further West.

We can't discount another cold blast yet, the possibility is still obviously there and UKMO has much more promise than GFS, but it may be with the constant search for cold and snow we are overlooking the prospect of the first green shoots of Spring appearing in the charts come the first week of March.

Hopefully that Spring comment will get quoted when the output flips back to cold tomorrow and we actually get the winter weather predicted by the models.

Give me Spring or give me snow, just don't give me ordinary.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Mucka

[Panayiotis]

So one would this with these kind of uppers that the surface wont be that cold?Think again, most of Europe and UK in the freezer!

Edited February 24, 2013 by Panayiotis

[karyo]

GFS now going for more of a sinking high than one that retrogresses which prevents the trough digging down and promotes the prospect of a Southwesterly regime developing rather than a Northeasterly in the long term.

Until then plenty of dry weather and if we can get some sunshine breaking through later next week it could feel quite pleasant, particularly further West.

We can't discount another cold blast yet, the possibility is still obviously there and UKMO has much more promise than GFS, but it may be with the constant search for cold and snow we are overlooking the prospect of the first green shoots of Spring appearing in the charts come the first week of March.

Hopefully that Spring comment will get quoted when the output flips back to cold tomorrow and we actually get the winter weather predicted by the models.

Give me Spring or give me snow, just don't give me ordinary.

Southeasterly!

[Jason M]

Well, slight difference between GFS and METO tonight. If you want a straight northerly METO looks good, if you want a straight southerly bank on GFS.

Jason

Edited February 24, 2013 by Jason M

[Derecho]

http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn1861.html

Unusual pressure pattern, one which could deliver a very mild southerly further down the line once the cold surface temperatures under the high pressure have been displaced.

Quite a turnaround from the northerly that had been showing up however the option of southerlies had been appearing a few days ago on a few ensemble members.

UKMO still shows a negative NAO and a bit of retrogression however,

It's as if GFS is taking the mickey, -10C uppers heading to Greece.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[Panayiotis]

Well, slight difference between GFS and METO tonight. If you want a straight northerly METO looks good, if you want a straight southerly bank on GFS.

Jason

I really do think the GFS has gone off on another wild tangent, no not because its shows a northerly and cold but because its completely different to the other models. Unless the ECM shows this kind of solution later, im more than happy to discount this run! Edited February 24, 2013 by Panayiotis

[karyo]

Very messy

Look at that mess north.

Normally this would just delay some cold but seeing as it is March winter is going to have to end at some point.

You know what makes it worse?

We have no Atlantic at all so we can just blame the PV for this

It feels like a punch in the mouth to be honest!

Karyo

[Snowman.]

Check the time

March heat!

But also very wet

Edited February 24, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Snowman.]

WAY above average 12oC or higher in the UK.

[mcweather]

I really do think the GFS has gone off on another wild tangent, no not because its shows a northerly and cold but because its completely different to the other models.

Yes I love those GFS tangents don't you. Minus 10 uppers across UK for that range yesterday now at the same range an airstream born somewhere near Nigeria. You couldn't make it up.

[Summer Sun]

FI is showing some mild weather tonight

All in all a poor outlook for coldies tonight so far

[cooling climate]

Nice to see the potent easterly I have mentioned setting up in deep, deep FI.

Although I would expect the building blocks will start earlier than the GFS 12z

depicts. Looking forward to the ECM run later.

[Derecho]

FI is showing some mild weather tonight

All in all a poor outlook for coldies tonight so far

I'd still be more interested in a cold northerly at this time of the year as early March can still deliver cold and snow. However a very mild spell would be welcome as come this time of the year it can be pleasant, this one looks particularly wet though.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[Polar Maritime]

I think to many are putting to much faith into detail 2 weeks out, pointless.. Lot's of bitter sniping going off as per usual as we approach spring, it would be nice to keep things level headed in here at this time of year for once, yes it's going to get warmer over the next month.. nothing unusual there.

This time of year can bring lot's of surprises from one extreme to the other. Let's all get on, and enjoy what the weather brings.

[mcweather]

Bearing in mind how often wonderful synoptics for sunshine and warmth in summer and bitter cold and heavy snow in winter appear beyond 144 only to get watered down to nothing out of the ordinary or even disappear altogether.

I thought a new explanation of the term FI might be in order.

Instead of FI = Fantasy Island how about FI = Forget it

I am also thinking of marketing a device known as the CMW or chart memory wiper which will enable posters whom insist on viewing charts at 240 as having any validity to be able to have those charts wiped from their minds daily. That way they don't have to endure the huge downers when the charts fall away as we get closer to real time after days of build up. They would only remember one days charts and suffer so much less.

Edited February 24, 2013 by mcweather

[Chris D]

Wow, just read this page and gone; is this really the model thread? lol

[Methuselah]

Isn't it about time we called a halt to all the forecaster-bashing? Hands-up, everyone who's never made a rash prediction, be it for snow, gales, thunderstorms or hurricanes or Indian summers?

[Derecho]

The UKMO and GFS look rather similar upto T+120, but in synoptics like this small features can make a huge difference, where GFS differs is that it is much more bullish with regards to developing energy off the west coast of Greenland. Even at T+96 though there are differences. Could this be due to the very intense cold over Northern Greenland causing instability which GFS is picking up on?

Rarely does noticeable cold over the UK coincide with noticeable cold over Greenland.

Remarkable how such a small feature makes a big difference, which way will the ECM go tonight? Large uncertainty in the output tonight but with the struggle to get a -NAO this winter I get the feeling heights are still going to struggle to build to the NW but we shall see. Will March finally see a change to a negative NAO?

Edited February 24, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[Supacell]

I think to many are putting to much faith into detail 2 weeks out, pointless.. Lot's of bitter sniping going off as per usual as we approach spring, it would be nice to keep things level headed in here at this time of year for once, yes it's going to get warmer over the next month.. nothing unusual there.

This time of year can bring lot's of surprises from one extreme to the other. Let's all get on, and enjoy what the weather brings.

So very true. Yesterday we were looking at a northerly with possible snowfalls and today we are looking at mild and wet (from the GFS). Tomorrow we may be looking at easterlies, or a raging Atlantic, or maybe back to a northerly again. By all means people can look at FI and make comment on it, i enjoy reading the comments, but people really should try not to get down about model outputs for over 7 days away - its only about 10% likely to verify imo.

Edited February 24, 2013 by Supacell