South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 22nd February 2013 20:00hrs>

[alexisj9]

Newbie alert,what is graupel

Snow that's more like soft hail, instead of flakes.

Edited February 24, 2013 by alexisj9

[snowrye]

Thank you

[Tom Montalbano]

I'll put those Snow Depth Cup matches in here again. If you have any measureable depths could I have them please. (I take it that was a resounding NO)

I'll take a dusting at least but obv. I think the overwhelming majority of matches will no doubt finish NIL - NIL.

But I do see 1 possible victor, who posted photographic evidence to support her depth. Well done Lottie, even I cant fix that in favour of a fellow Bromleyite! Sorry Mr.Pilgrim!

I'm going to have to have a think about what to do next!

Leigh-on-Sea (E) (PAUL SHERMAN) v. South Ockenden (E) (CRAZY DIAMOND)

Little Wakering (E) (ESSEXGOONER) v. Rayleigh (E) (VESUVIUS)

Dartford (K) (CHARLTON KERRY) v. Addington (Sur) (SNOWBOB)

Barnet (H) (SUBURBAN STREAMER) v. Wimbledon (L) (LONDON SNOW)

Bromley (K) (JAN_BROMLEY) v. Uckfield (Sus) (TOM JARVIS)

Ongar (E) (JO S) v. Bushey (H) (SVALIJI)

Waltham Abbey (E) (JOHN MAC) v. N.W.Kent ? (KENTSPUR)

Bromley (K) (BROMLEY PILGRIM) v. Folkestone (K) (LOTTIEKENT)

S.W.London (FLUID DYNAMIC) v. Northwood (L) (BLUEBREEZER54)

Swanley (K) (SNOWBLUES) v. Crayford (K) (MIKE STORM)

N.W.Kent (LAUREN) v. Welwyn (H) (PIXEL)

Bexleyheath (K) (SNOW RAVEN) v. Chigwell (E) (ARCHIESMUMMY)

FRIENDLY

West Ipswich (Suf) (CHRIS101) v. Rochester (K) (STEVIERAY1)

Regards,

Tom.

Edited February 24, 2013 by TomSE20

[chionomaniac]

The trick is to learn from ones mistakes and not repeat them as you say.

Weather forecasts have been running for hundreds of years one would have thought that these mistakes you mention would have been mastered by now.

A big fat NO from me & reason being because : No weather pattern is the exact same & hence nobody can pin point exact regional weather which means that forecasters can never rely on previous examples.

Our weather is always on the change and is why i feel the likes of the bbc & other pro forecasters should cut medium range forecasts & do a day to two day forecast only.

The likes of the strat thread is just a factoring tool such as many others we know of. I feel that too much faith has been put into it this winter as we all know you can have the blocking in favourable positions but it only takes a sw to scupper things.

I would like to hear gp's thoughts regarding where it went wrong during the early part of feb as i know he was very confident up to a certain point.

That old incorrect chestnut again. It must have been reeled out dozens of times this winter. That is exactly what I meant by learning from previous mistakes.

A short wave doesn't scupper a long wave pattern. The upper pattern dictates and short waves will form where allowed to. And if you get the long wave upper pattern right, then more often than not then the surface pattern can be predictated to some sort of percentage accuracy - though not always.

I suspect that the winter upper pattern will show anomalies close to where GP predicted hence a likely below average winter temp wise looking likely. More work needed in the interpretation of upper anomalies to surface patterns, I think.

[alexisj9]

That thing in belgium now, is that the upper warm front already?

Looks like it may get here soon, whatever it is.

[yamkin]

People get things wrong

Piers Corbyn and Jonathan Powell have been forecasting snowmageddon all winter which would bring the country to its knees, one of the most respected posters on here apparently made a long range forecast months ago that SSW would give us a winter similar to 1947/63 yet what we have had has been a fairly routine winter, yes there has been the odd snow event but nothing unusual compared with a routine winter so i do not hold a monopoly in terms of predictions going pear shaped

In my opinion, Spring will be very late this year and winter will last longer

[Essexgooner]

I'll put those Snow Depth Cup matches in here again. If you have any measureable depths could I have them please. (I take it that was a resounding NO)

I'll take a dusting at least but obv. I think the overwhelming majority of matches will no doubt finish NIL - NIL.

But I do see 1 possible victor, who posted photographic evidence to support her depth. Well done Lottie, even I cant fix that in favour of a fellow Bromleyite! Sorry Mr.Pilgrim!

I'm going to have to have a think about what to do next!

Leigh-on-Sea (E) (PAUL SHERMAN) v. South Ockenden (E) (CRAZY DIAMOND)

Little Wakering (E) (ESSEXGOONER) v. Rayleigh (E) (VESUVIUS)

Dartford (K) (CHARLTON KERRY) v. Addington (Sur) (SNOWBOB)

Barnet (H) (SUBURBAN STREAMER) v. Wimbledon (L) (LONDON SNOW)

Bromley (K) (JAN_BROMLEY) v. Uckfield (Sus) (TOM JARVIS)

Ongar (E) (JO S) v. Bushey (H) (SVALIJI)

Waltham Abbey (E) (JOHN MAC) v. N.W.Kent ? (KENTSPUR)

Bromley (K) (BROMLEY PILGRIM) v. Folkestone (K) (LOTTIEKENT)

S.W.London (FLUID DYNAMIC) v. Northwood (L) (BLUEBREEZER54)

Swanley (K) (SNOWBLUES) v. Crayford (K) (MIKE STORM)

N.W.Kent (LAUREN) v. Welwyn (H) (PIXEL)

Bexleyheath (K) (SNOW RAVEN) v. Chigwell (E) (ARCHIESMUMMY)

FRIENDLY

West Ipswich (Suf) (CHRIS101) v. Rochester (K) (STEVIERAY1)

Regards,

Tom.

I had 0.5 cm on the garden table after Friday night, lol

[steveinsussex]

So I'm afraid I was right last night, more experienced members getting people's hopes up with false info, I'm starting to wonder if they actually are experienced.

[alexisj9]

In my opinion, Spring will be very late this year and winter will last longer

We have to watch what the high does.

[Tom Montalbano]

That thing in belgium now, is that the upper warm front already?

Looks like it may get here soon, whatever it is.

Seems to be quite a bit of snow over Belgium/N.E.France at the moment.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/temp2_1h.png

Dewpoints are becoming marginal to our east now, though.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/pointrosee.png

And we start to lose those -10 uppers during the afternoon.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130224/06/09/h850t850eu.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130224/06/12/h850t850eu.png

Monday:

Another mostly cloudy day with a cold northeasterly wind bringing outbreaks of sleet or snow, turning to rain. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

One of those obs. sites on that Meteociel map is recording Neige Fondue, yummy! Think I'll go and have my lunch now.

Regards,

Tom.

[Tom Jarvis]

I'm happy to call it a draw between me and jan

[alexisj9]

Seems to be quite a bit of snow over Belgium/N.E.France at the moment.

http://www.meteociel...bs/temp2_1h.png

Dewpoints are becoming marginal to our east now, though.

http://www.meteociel.../pointrosee.png

And we start to lose those -10 uppers during the afternoon.

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

Monday:

Another mostly cloudy day with a cold northeasterly wind bringing outbreaks of sleet or snow, turning to rain. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

One of those obs. sites on that Meteociel map is recording Neige Fondue, yummy! Think I'll go and have my lunch now.

Regards,

Tom.

Where has sleet tom?

[Froze were the Days]

One things for sure GP will be about right with his seasonal forecast for a below CET for this winter - he hasn't quite got the height anomolies for his forecasts for each month correct as I believe he said the Greenland high would become more prevalent into Jan/Feb which hasn't happened at all but he has been correct in forecasting the coldest spell of this winter as mid January.

So all in all he will be fairly happy although details might have been slightly out.

[Tom Montalbano]

I'm happy to call it a draw between me and jan

Hi Tom,

I'm happy, if both Jan and you are happy but ultimately I'm not happy, if you see what I mean. Defo. time for my lunch, low sugars and all that!

I'll get my coat! (Very cold in my kitchen).

Buon Appetito,

Tom.

[Methuselah]

One things for sure GP will be about right with his seasonal forecast for a below CET for this winter - he hasn't quite got the height anomolies for his forecasts for each month correct as I believe he said the Greenland high would become more prevalent into Jan/Feb which hasn't happened at all but he has been correct in forecasting the coldest spell of this winter as mid January.

So all in all he will be fairly happy although details might have been slightly out.

Agreed, Froze. And no-one else had got those right, either...Hence - as was pointed-out above, somewhere - there's not a lot of point in castigating anyone, in particular...

[Tom Montalbano]

Hi Alexis,

I think there is some, Dutch/Belgian/French coasts and poss.Brussels, I think. More snow admittedly, at the mo.

Tom.

[nick sussex]

One things for sure GP will be about right with his seasonal forecast for a below CET for this winter - he hasn't quite got the height anomolies for his forecasts for each month correct as I believe he said the Greenland high would become more prevalent into Jan/Feb which hasn't happened at all but he has been correct in forecasting the coldest spell of this winter as mid January.

So all in all he will be fairly happy although details might have been slightly out.

I think some confusion comes into this when people view anomalies, if you look at Greenland and to the nw its likely positive anomalies will show up against the norm which is often governed by a deep PV and Icelandic low.

What we've had has been higher than normal heights but at no time have we seen a proper Greenland high, I think for the future its probably helpful for GP to differentiate between positive anomalies and high pressure because I think this is perhaps where many members looked at the positive anomalies and automatically equated that with proper blocking.

[Snowangel-MK]

Mornin each. Some flurries in MK this week end but not too much to write home about. But it's been an education staying in an INN with electricity, AND running water. What luxury!!! Me cloth cap kept me 'ead warm mindst.

Have a lovely Sunday everyone.

It was a very civilized hostelry wasn't it...

........MK is very good at hospitality

[CWT2012]

In my opinion, Spring will be very late this year and winter will last longer

I only want an extended winter if there is going to be heavy lying snow, if not i want to get in my shorts and enjoy some heat and beer gardens

I don't think it is likely now this winter that there will be any more lying snow in March that lasts over 24 hrs, the strength of the sun will melt it quickly so for that reason I can't get too excited

[Jan_Bromley]

Hi Tom,

I'm happy, if both Jan and you are happy but ultimately I'm not happy, if you see what I mean. Defo. time for my lunch, low sugars and all that!

I'll get my coat! (Very cold in my kitchen).

Buon Appetito,

Tom.

Thats fine by me too Tom and Tom

[therecoil]

SNOWING IN BRIGHTON !!

[john pike]

http://www.climate-uk.com/

[Ruby000]

It's snowing and settling on cars.

[Snowangel-MK]

Blowing and drifting in Stony Stratford this morning....

...it was so bad the Ducks were in the trees

[alexisj9]

http://www.climate-uk.com/

Oh well, I had a 2.5 in the CET thread for this month, I'm not sure the next few days will be cold enough to drop the cet further.