South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 22nd February 2013 20:00hrs>

[CWT2012]

I see those predicting several inches of snow are quiet this morning. I think the realist amongst us knew that was never on the cards from the start!

The Thames streamer just didn't happen, it was not unreasonable a few days ago to think it might, the conditions were there for it, ENE wind, the right uppers but it just didn't happen sadly, I don't regret my prediction as 2 of the most respected members of the board Roger J Smith and Steve Murr were very enthusiastic about the idea.

Roger even predicted a foot of snow so it wasn't just a snow enthusiast like me that called the Thames streamer

[Col Berkshire]

The Thames streamer just didn't happen, it was not unreasonable a few days ago to think it might, the conditions were there for it, ENE wind, the right uppers but it just didn't happen sadly, I don't regret my prediction as 2 of the most respected members of the board Roger J Smith and Steve Murr were very enthusiastic about the idea.

Roger even predicted a foot of snow so it wasn't just a snow enthusiast like me that called the Thames streamer

The air has been far too dry to support vast quantities of snow. I never thought it would happen and it didn't. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think any of your predictions have materialised this winter!

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Some flurries in MK this week end but not too much to write home about. But it's been an education staying in an INN with electricity, AND running water. What luxury!!! Me cloth cap kept me 'ead warm mindst.

Have a lovely Sunday everyone.

[CWT2012]

The air has been far too dry to support vast quantities of snow. I never thought it would happen and it didn't. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think any of your predictions have materialised this winter!

I have only been around for 2 snow days before this weekend so this is my 3rd snow event prediction, sure I have not got any of the 3 right but then again look at the big names on the board when they started out. I bet Steve, Roger, TIETS, BFTP etc got many things wrong in their early days as amateur forecasters/snow enthusiasts before they became model experts.

I didn't know a weather model from a tin of baked beans and have relied on good old gut instinct, enthusiasm for snow mixed with bits and bobs i read in the model thread.

[alexisj9]

The air has been far too dry to support vast quantities of snow. I never thought it would happen and it didn't. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think any of your predictions have materialised this winter!

To be honest, I don't mind if his/or anybodies predictions are right or wrong. Although some predictions are over the top, and I just take those as ramping, and I'm sure that most others do too. We are mostly ametures and enthusiasts in this forum, with a few profesionals like ian f. People predictions will be wrong sometimes. It's all fun to read. That's my opinion anyway.

[dubmuffin]

Cold, grey and dry with flurries is better than cold grey and dry without flurries. I rather enjoyed clearing the garden yesterday with snow grains falling around me, they even settled on the edges of the frozen pond. If it carries on the same today, that will be 3 days in a row with almost constant falling "snow" - I think it has been quite an unusual situation and that in itself has made it interesting.

[Guest bjaykent]

I have only been around for 2 snow days before this weekend so this is my 3rd snow event prediction, sure I have not got any of the 3 right but then again look at the big names on the board when they started out. I bet Steve, Roger, TIETS, BFTP etc got many things wrong in their early days as amateur forecasters/snow enthusiasts before they became model experts.

I didn't know a weather model from a tin of baked beans and have relied on good old gut instinct, enthusiasm for snow mixed with bits and bobs i read in the model thread.

Keep it up mate, by the law of averages we will get a foot of snow one day!

[Essexgooner]

Nothing happened over night here as expected, just a few dull and overcast days coming up I would suggest

[k66yla]

Any predictions for the Hastings area in the next few hours? Bored and have decided to get out & about with the camera

[alexisj9]

Maybe some snow grains if your lucky, they seem to be in the air again.

Any predictions for the Hastings area in the next few hours? Bored and have decided to get out & about with the camera

[SMU]

CWT i think we need to be clear here-

The thames streamer is as a result of the perfect onshore flow conditions as well as unstable air & a strong thermal gradient between 850 temps & sea temps-

At around T96 the models had a low pressure over to the SW of the UK which extended the Easterly flow right across England-

As we got to T 48 - 72 the models replaced that with a ridging azores high-

As a result the western end of the block didnt lift enough & the instability & flow curved rather sharp towards the SW across our region instaed of staying westerly.

From this one feature & for the fact that the model moved the whole flow around 150 miles southg was the reason.

had the earlier charts varified we woud have had very strong snow, - in these scenarios its all or nothing.

S

[chionomaniac]

I have only been around for 2 snow days before this weekend so this is my 3rd snow event prediction, sure I have not got any of the 3 right but then again look at the big names on the board when they started out. I bet Steve, Roger, TIETS, BFTP etc got many things wrong in their early days as amateur forecasters/snow enthusiasts before they became model experts.

They still are! And so do the pros.

However, anyone who is brave enough to make a forecast has to expect that it may not go according to plan and they should not be castigated for that. The trick is to learn from ones mistakes and not repeat them.

[Sussex Jules]

I have only been around for 2 snow days before this weekend so this is my 3rd snow event prediction, sure I have not got any of the 3 right but then again look at the big names on the board when they started out. I bet Steve, Roger, TIETS, BFTP etc got many things wrong in their early days as amateur forecasters/snow enthusiasts before they became model experts.

I didn't know a weather model from a tin of baked beans and have relied on good old gut instinct, enthusiasm for snow mixed with bits and bobs i read in the model thread.

Its when you stated there was a blizzard in my area based on god only knows what. Then there was the comment that a yellow warning hadn't been issued by the met office as it was after 5 and they had probably gone home. So please don't compare yourself to more experienced posters.

[chionomaniac]

CWT i think we need to be clear here-

The thames streamer is as a result of the perfect onshore flow conditions as well as unstable air & a strong thermal gradient between 850 temps & sea temps-

At around T96 the models had a low pressure over to the SW of the UK which extended the Easterly flow right across England-

As we got to T 48 - 72 the models replaced that with a ridging azores high-

As a result the western end of the block didnt lift enough & the instability & flow curved rather sharp towards the SW across our region instaed of staying westerly.

From this one feature & for the fact that the model moved the whole flow around 150 miles southg was the reason.

had the earlier charts varified we woud have had very strong snow, - in these scenarios its all or nothing.

S

We have had another near miss. It seems that we have had a winter full of them. Mainly we have seen temps on the wrong side of marginal to produce. I have sat through a few heavy rain/ sleet events this winter at 2-3ºC just wondering how close it has been to snow. The last few days we have the upper cold and not enough precip. C'est La Vie!

[Col Berkshire]

Its when you stated there was a blizzard in my area based on god only knows what. Then there was the comment that a yellow warning hadn't been issued by the met office as it was after 5 and they had probably gone home. So please don't compare yourself to more experienced posters.

Well said and was exactly the point I was making. We should leave forecasts to those with the knowledge and experience to make them. I totally respect the experienced posters on here!

[BLUNT]

Looks like rain showers from tomorrow onwards as the upper air warm front moves through, or just dull and grey with flakes of snow replaced by drizzle

[CWT2012]

Its when you stated there was a blizzard in my area based on god only knows what. Then there was the comment that a yellow warning hadn't been issued by the met office as it was after 5 and they had probably gone home. So please don't compare yourself to more experienced posters.

That was when there was incredibly heavy snow in the Cherbourg Peninsula, 90mm an hour blobs, I thought that that would move NE up the channel and reach UK mainland around Brighton/Eastbourne area, instead it just burned itself out

Ulltimately the weather is going to do what it WANTS to do no matter what any wind directions or models are computer programming it to do

The Met Office comment was again one of my early posts on here when i had no idea how the inner workings of the Met Office worked.

I have every right to compare myself to the experienced forecasters in their EARLY days, I bet Dave, Steve, Roger when they were inexperienced snow fans starting out on the road got the majority of stuff wrong, if not all, with experience and practice they got better and became the legends they are today with years of experience.

I bet Tony McCoy when he first started having riding lessons fell off his horse many times, i bet when Phil Taylor picked up his first set of darts that he missed the board entirely with his first ever throws let alone got a 180, I bet Ronnie O Sullivan when he got his first ever snooker cue and a table for christmas that it took him ages to get a break in double figures let alone 147

Well said and was exactly the point I was making. We should leave forecasts to those with the knowledge and experience to make them. I totally respect the experienced posters on here!

But how did they become experienced? a god given gift? no, through making predictions like the rest of us and learning from their mistakes over months and years

[Methuselah]

But we have only had what was expected: vertical temperature-profiles have never really favoured deep-snow scenarios. Which, I guess, why the Met has been consistent, right from the start, in its expectation of 2-4 cm max...Apart from one-or-two locations, way up north, they seem to have hit the nail squarely on the head?

For a far-better explanation, see John Holmes's post in the MOD thread...

Edited February 24, 2013 by Rybris Ponce

[CWT2012]

People get things wrong

Piers Corbyn and Jonathan Powell have been forecasting snowmageddon all winter which would bring the country to its knees, one of the most respected posters on here apparently made a long range forecast months ago that SSW would give us a winter similar to 1947/63 yet what we have had has been a fairly routine winter, yes there has been the odd snow event but nothing unusual compared with a routine winter so i do not hold a monopoly in terms of predictions going pear shaped

Edited February 24, 2013 by CWT2012

[Jan_Bromley]

Ah well, cest la vie.

Here's to the next will it/ wont it event

Grey, cold, dull and grey here

[DAVID SNOW]

So here we have the end of term results for CWT......

Total enthusiasm for snow A+

Being bave enough to make forecasts A+

Acuracy of forecasts F

Laughter factor(meto closing at 5 etc) A+

So, all in all a good first term,perhaps needs to spend a bit more time learning about the models,charts etc,and not get too carried away with the prospects of snow

[london-snow]

They still are! And so do the pros.

However, anyone who is brave enough to make a forecast has to expect that it may not go according to plan and they should not be castigated for that. The trick is to learn from ones mistakes and not repeat them.

The trick is to learn from ones mistakes and not repeat them as you say.

Weather forecasts have been running for hundreds of years one would have thought that these mistakes you mention would have been mastered by now.

A big fat NO from me & reason being because : No weather pattern is the exact same & hence nobody can pin point exact regional weather which means that forecasters can never rely on previous examples.

Our weather is always on the change and is why i feel the likes of the bbc & other pro forecasters should cut medium range forecasts & do a day to two day forecast only.

The likes of the strat thread is just a factoring tool such as many others we know of. I feel that too much faith has been put into it this winter as we all know you can have the blocking in favourable positions but it only takes a sw to scupper things.

I would like to hear gp's thoughts regarding where it went wrong during the early part of feb as i know he was very confident up to a certain point.

[alexisj9]

Looks like rain showers from tomorrow onwards as the upper air warm front moves through, or just dull and grey with flakes of snow replaced by drizzle

I would hazad a guess at your second choice, as nothing really changes that much apart from the uppers warming up.

[Jason T]

Meto update.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Rather cold. Northern parts dry with sunny spells after early fog. In the south, cloudy and breezy with some patchy light rain. Further rain in the far north later Thursday.

Updated: 0250 on Sun 24 Feb 2013

"

UK Outlook for Friday 1 Mar 2013 to Sunday 10 Mar 2013:

Rather cloudy on Friday, the cloud thick enough for a little light rain or drizzle in places, but mostly dry. More widespread rain reaching the far northwest later on Friday, before moving southwards across the UK on Saturday, but becoming increasingly light and patchy. Clearer skies with wintry showers following into northeastern areas later on Saturday, persisting through Sunday, and perhaps a few wintry showers for some Irish Sea coasts as well. Northwestern areas remain unsettled and a little less cold, but elsewhere conditions mainly fine and dry into next week, with the best of any sunshine towards the south and east. Temperatures generally near or a little below average at first, turning cold, locally very cold in the northeast for a time, then generally a little less cold later.

Updated: 1119 on Sun 24 Feb 2013

"

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Mar 2013 to Monday 25 Mar 2013:

Most areas are likely to stay colder than average, perhaps more especially across the eastern side of the UK, with some more frosty nights to come. Generally, there are no strong signals regarding precipitation, but taking the period as a whole, some northwestern areas of the UK will probably end up a little drier than usual, whereas southern and eastern districts will perhaps be wetter than normal.

Updated: 1120 on Sun 24 Feb 2013

Edited February 24, 2013 by Jason T

[snowrye]

Newbie alert,what is graupel