Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward

[nick sussex]

If this was a what happens next quiz and the T72hrs chart was put up from the ECM I certainly wouldn't be thinking it would take to 240hrs to get the cold in.

What you've got is that troughing spinning around with shortwaves forming running anti clockwise, the model has to decide how much of that energy heads off to the se and how much heads north, as we've seen from the past the models really don't like dealing with this set up. For that reason although the models want drag out the drama I wouldn't be too surprised to see a bit more trough disruption earlier on.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Like I said earlier the theme of winter may continue to haunt, tonights runs suggest as such

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

There is certainly a downward trend on the full ensemble tonight but just how cold it turns and how long it may last remains open to question

Edited March 3, 2013 by Gavin.

[Frosty.]

Like I said earlier the theme of winter may continue to haunt, tonights runs suggest as such

BFTP

I can only see a possible delay but not a cancellation, the north never even turns mild this week and then trends colder, it looks good but it may just take longer so patience is required.

[Guest pjl20101]

Found this from the NOAA site and it's safe to say cooler than average may persist because the AO is in a negative state ATM:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Note that at the end of the ensembles that it goes positive or at least tries to so the weather towards the end of the month may be very different to what it is currently.

[john pike]

fax updates already

96

120

more or less matching ukmo

Edited March 3, 2013 by john pike

[Cloud 10]

incidentally, a very early heads up but the cpc anomolys, based on raw 00z naefs data will be stuuning this evening. we can but hope that tomorrows forecaster produced option looks the same.

Looks like a good call there BA

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

[bluearmy]

Looks like a good call there BA

Climate Prediction Center - 8-14 Day 500mb Outlook

Hmmmm - if it were based on 12z run it would have been a little less impressive. That's the theme today from a wintry perspective. A great start and a slow downward trend thereafter.

[Panayiotis]

Shortwave has popped up earlier on the 18z, will it scupper the chances of us getting cold? It could well so especially where its been placed, we desperately need it to drop south or just move away from that area.

Edited March 3, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Allseasons-Si]

Shortwave has popped up earlier on the 18z, will it scupper the chances of us getting cold? It could well so especially where its been placed, we desperately need it to drop south or just move away from that area.

Hi Panayiotis,not been on here for a while due to getting the garden sorted out ready for summer

i just like to put my 2 penny's in

gfs @153hrs,there looks like some WAA setting up shop just off newfoundland,that would squeeze that shortwave south

i have circled that here

18z12z

Si

Edit,or maybe not

Edited March 3, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

In low res the gfs seems bullish in bringing the cold air to the uk

12z18z

Si

[Panayiotis]

Hi Panayiotis,not been on here for a while due to getting the garden sorted out ready for summer

i just like to put my 2 penny's in

gfs @153hrs,there looks like some WAA setting up shop just off newfoundland,that would squeeze that shortwave south

i have circled that here

18z12z

Si

Edit,or maybe not

It got there at 189hrs, the shortwave weakened and heights built up from behind which made it phase with the low exiting from America:

Edited March 3, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Dean E]

I think the more important issue maybe towards the latter end of next week. Atlantic will storm in from Wednesday on-wards with a slow moving cut-off low settling itself to the West of Ireland.

This could cause problems with any stalled area of more enhanced rain (Especially for the SW/Wales) and could undo the dry period we have just endured.

One to watch

SM

[Allseasons-Si]

It got there at 189hrs, the shortwave weakened and heights built up from behind which made it phase with the low exiting from America:

that depression off newfoundland sucked it up like my hoover couldn't lol!

still in later hi res it looks ok but time is running out now,we seem to be chasing these cold charts/synoptics forever now and it's becoming relentless,i would like one final push for some snowy stuff,then move on to another scenario,sping,then after that,summer storms yey

[nick sussex]

Nice block in the lower resolution GFS, shame its higher resolution was like watching paint dry.

Someone get on the phone to Jessica Ennis we need a great hurdler to jump all those hurdles that the models seem determined to throw up.

The higher resolution GFS sticks the limpet shortwave to the nw, this stops the high from ridging sw in that area, theres no separation of energy till very late hence the low to the sw takes a long time to clear se.

Overall unconvincing and then the Azores high ridges north but miraculously doesn't act as spoiler in the lower resolution because the GFS finds another emergency good shortwave just in time!

Don't go into the light and fall for the GFS lower resolution, its evil! (If you haven't seen Poltergeist then you might wonder what on earth I'm on about).

Overall I'm underwhelmed by the evenings outputs, too long to get to anything interesting, not enough energy heading se into Europe at the crucial timeframes.

The models might get there eventually but are certainly doing their best to complicate the route.

[Ian Brown]

Nice block in the lower resolution GFS, shame its higher resolution was like watching paint dry.

Someone get on the phone to Jessica Ennis we need a great hurdler to jump all those hurdles that the models seem determined to throw up.

The higher resolution GFS sticks the limpet shortwave to the nw, this stops the high from ridging sw in that area, theres no separation of energy till very late hence the low to the sw takes a long time to clear se.

Overall unconvincing and then the Azores high ridges north but miraculously doesn't act as spoiler in the lower resolution because the GFS finds another emergency good shortwave just in time!

Don't go into the light and fall for the GFS lower resolution, its evil! (If you haven't seen Poltergeist then you might wonder what on earth I'm on about).

Overall I'm underwhelmed by the evenings outputs, too long to get to anything interesting, not enough energy heading se into Europe at the crucial timeframes.

The models might get there eventually but are certainly doing their best to complicate the route.

Yes it's like pulling teeth and we know from experience that a cleaner evolution is needed, and at this time of year we really need Northerlies/North Easterlies to deliver the goods for the majority which has to come from a pressure rise to the NW, however the models end up getting there.

The METO are quite bullish in their outlook for below average/cold though, firmly mentioning easterlies and I don't think I've seen them so sure in a below average long ranger since Nov/Dec 2010.

[nick sussex]

Yes it's like pulling teeth and we know from experience that a cleaner evolution is needed, and at this time of year we really need Northerlies/North Easterlies to deliver the goods for the majority which has to come from a pressure rise to the NW, however the models end up getting there.

The METO are quite bullish in their outlook for below average/cold though, firmly mentioning easterlies and I don't think I've seen them so sure in a below average long ranger since Nov/Dec 2010.

Yes pulling teeth is a perfect view of things and I don't like these long drawn out evolutions. But they may get there eventually. Certainly things would be much better if we see more trough disruption earlier and the removal of that shortwave to the nw.

Tomorrows another day, lets hope for that cleaner and less fraught evolution.

[TEITS]

Just a quickie as im off to bed and been unable to post tonight.

These models are making a right song and dance in what will eventually be a quicker, less complicated route to cold beginning on the 10th March in the N, 11-12th March for the S.

Night all.

[davehsug]

Just a quickie as im off to bed and been unable to post tonight.

These models are making a right song and dance in what will eventually be a quicker, less complicated route to cold beginning on the 10th March in the N, 11-12th March for the S.

Night all.

Well, here's hoping you're wrong! Nice to see the models backing away & hopefully it'll go the way of all the FI silly cold this season & end up as a normal March Northerly, followed by a quick return to normal.

[winterof79]

As per METO update.Unsettled over the weekend then turning progressively colder from the e/n/e

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png

http://www.meteociel...0-216.GIF?04-12

http://www.meteociel...1-216.GIF?04-12

Some will not like the time it takes for the trough to move through but it is what it is.Middle of the month looks cold.

Edited March 4, 2013 by winterof79

[cooling climate]

Just a quickie as im off to bed and been unable to post tonight.

These models are making a right song and dance in what will eventually be a quicker, less complicated route to cold beginning on the 10th March in the N, 11-12th March for the S.

Night all.

Agreed. Again this morning the ECM making a song and dance out of proceedings

and even by t240 -5c uppers are only just into the northeastern part of Scotland.

GFS solution is a lot cleaner and quicker although the 0z run sends the coldest air

into Europe. A fair number of the GFS ens bring the cold in a lot quicker than the op run.

[chris x]

the cold has gone on ecm prob be gone on Gfs later

[IDO]

The GEFS continue to highlight a cooling down: Nothing like "Ice Days" about the week or so of colder weather, but no sign of an early Spring in the medium term. The 850s mean stays below 0c for London for the last 8 days of the run: Colder temps further north.

GFS has been consistent in sending the cold uppers close to the UK for a period of wintry weather but how far south and whether the flow edges east is still up for grabs, unfortunately. Sunday/Monday appears to be the time scale from the last few days runs on GFS. ECM has as it usually does picks up on the great synoptics out in FI and downgrades consistently from there. Todays 0z has no v.cold uppers in England by D10, and no sign that this run would bring them further south for another few days. Hopefully this is a mild variant from the ensembles. But I have given up on watching ECM after D7 as they have promised so much this Winter and delivered so little. The 12z ens from yesterday does highlight that there is a 50/50 split by as early as D4 that keeps average (to just below) temps in London throughout the 15 days and the other that brings in the colder 2m temps so I guess caution as to this (very) cold flow happening at all (southern perspective) :

Edited March 4, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Frosty.]

An excellent Gfs 00z if you like cold and snowy, frosty weather especially further north and east (ne), not so good for the southeast but very wintry for most of the uk with dec 2010 type charts dominating mid march. The Ecm 00z much slower to evolve but it's all down to how the trough disrupts and the trough alignment, gfs is fast track, ecm is a slow burner.

The next few days look nice, plenty of sunshine and very mild for the south, 13-14c likely, cooler in the north and cloudier but some sun in northern and southern scotland, cloudier across central areas, sunnier in the north tomorrow though, similar for the south but tonight looks cold with a slight frost, from midweek it looks more unsettled with rain at times, continuing mild for a while in the south but trending colder further north across scotland with easterly winds, the mild upper air being mixed out across southern areas by next weekend and colder for scotland with snow on hills by the weekend and then turning much colder next week.

Edited March 4, 2013 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

huh.... one day the ecm is predicting one heck of a cold spell, then it gradually downgrades it to be almost nothing within hours. the truth will likely be found somewhere in between. the gfs might be favoured this morning by coldies, but many were dismissing it not so long ago... a-hem.

meanwhile we have a couple of nice days to enjoy before it becomes more changable with rain at times. into fi and its probably going to get colder, but some kind of last chance of winter appears to be diminishing.

personally, based on nothing more then a hunch (so may well be wrong), im kinda getting the impression spring will be a cold/average mix as opposed to the warmer springs we seem to have enjoyed in recent years.