Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward

[cooling climate]

Very pleased with the 12z GFS run and we would be at that time of year when

modeled max temps of 2c-4c would fall back sharply during any heavy or prolonged

snow showers.

As far as the UKMO goes well I don't think its on the ball at the moment.

I am certainly in the GFS camp with this synoptic pattern as it has seems to be the

more consistent in its output and makes more sense synoptically than the UKMO

and ECM.

[nick sussex]

ECM seems to be following GFS so far

GFS

I wish it was, the ECM still has a less favourable tilt to the troughing with more energy north, though better than the dismal UKMO. The ECM at 144hrs does however look a bit better than this mornings poor offering.

Unfortunately the Alien Queen pops out a couple of shortwaves upstream at 168hrs ready to try and make sure the UK cold shield isn't breached!

Edited March 4, 2013 by nick sussex

[mushymanrob]

thats not 'better'......+ 15 would be 'better'...............

Please everyone...WE DONT ALL WANT A COLD MARCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

no one would like to see an end to the cold more then me....

..but the models simply do not show it, ranging from a very cold wintry scenario, to a below average one. make the most of tomorrow, its likely to be the last springlike day for some time.

Edited March 4, 2013 by mushymanrob

[bluearmy]

complete lack of cross model consistency at days 5/6 leave us lost. follow the ens ? shouldnt be necessary at that range. if it were proper winter with much higher stakes, this place might be rather unpleasant. fortunately, few expect much out of this so we can be more relaxed and mature about it.

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM is so messy in its evolution tonight...

[Derecho]

ECM seems to be following GFS so far

GFS

ECM doesn't look as good though, uppers over Greenland being much colder and the area of sinking high pressure over Scandi will probably result in a reinforcing of the West based -NAO later in the run.

A concerning trend as far as notable cold is concerned is the emergence of a pressure rise over Gibraltar (even on the colder GFS) which makes the chances of the main area of cold to our NE missing us increase.

The failure to get a notable east based -NAO this winter could show its hand again.

Edited March 4, 2013 by Quicksilver1989

[Cheshire Freeze]

The ECM is throwing so many obstacles in the way, the cold is facing an almost Total Wipeout style task to get here

[Cloud 10]

Discrete stuff, but that little wedge of HP over Scandi at 120 should ensure the cold gets closer on this run

That "little wedge" is scuppering the advection of the cold air.

Are those my toys on the floor,lol.

[chris78]

It's the convective possibilities which excite me. Hail, thundersnow, some lovely early season CBs and great sky scapes. How that doesn't excite weather enthusiasts is beyond me but ho hum!

I suspect there's some people on here who would be quite happy with blue skies and sun 12 months of the year. That's fine but I would describe that as a lack of weather and would bore me to tears.

alright that a few times you have had a go ....as I have said a thousand times we all have different tastes ...the issue was never people liking cold ...the issue was assuming everyone is the same ..but you must have missed that....hey ho....

CC I love cold in winter....I wouldnt particularly mind now but come March my preference is mild (sorry I know Im not supposed to want mild until May in your world) Mild this time of year makes earning a living easier for me...

...and btw i would hate blue skies and mild all year......but i would love them in March!

I said right it the start this wasnt intended to open a mild/cold debate...I was just asking that people dont assume we all want cold.....

...sorry mods..but several of cc posts have clearly been a swipe a mildlies...I thought a right to reply was only fair.....

[Tamara]

The ECM is throwing so many obstacles in the way, the cold is facing an almost Total Wipeout style task to get here

Well if we were to assume just for a moment that the ECM was to verify and with the proper cold air locked away to the North and East behind that frenzy of shortwaves, then I think many will be disappointed to be losing the pleasant sunshine of today and tomorrow. No fun in chilly-ish wet atlantic weather at all even more especially with the days getting longer. A lot of indecision though at the moment with the operational models in general, although some quite stark agreement just now from the GEFS ensembles for another cold spell

A bit of a tease right at the end of the output, but with all that happened earlier its too far away to take much notice of really

Edited March 4, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Cheshire Freeze]

That "little wedge" is scuppering the advection of the cold air.

Are those my toys on the floor,lol.

It also helps to send more energy under rather than over. Hence the ECM is slightly better than the UKMO

[nick sussex]

complete lack of cross model consistency at days 5/6 leave us lost. follow the ens ? shouldnt be necessary at that range. if it were proper winter with much higher stakes, this place might be rather unpleasant. fortunately, few expect much out of this so we can be more relaxed and mature about it.

Yes if it was mid winter there would be carnage in here! As for relaxed and mature I'm not sure about that, I'm about to commence a full scale throwing toys out of prams!

Oh I see the ECM is plucking a new evolution out at 192hrs,zzzzzzz I don't want to play any more!

Overall the GFS has the best cold potential, the ECM is going off on another tease in its FI, the UKMO is poor but at least it stops at 144hrs so doesn't subject us to more FI tosh as has been the case from the ECM for the last few months.

In a nutshell no agreement and even with that solid GEFS support for some colder conditions best not read too much into that till theres agreement, hopefully that happens before the clocks change!

[bluearmy]

the complete tooing and froing of the ecm operationals tells you enough about this. when the most consistent model in the mid range cannot reproduce an op run evolution, its time to take a step back and just watch.

[mushymanrob]

complete lack of cross model consistency at days 5/6 leave us lost. follow the ens ? shouldnt be necessary at that range. if it were proper winter with much higher stakes, this place might be rather unpleasant. fortunately, few expect much out of this so we can be more relaxed and mature about it.

bib... exactly, which makes any expectations for anything hopecasting (cold or less cold). the gfs seems to be most consistent in its runs today, all but ignoring the ecm's mess, but the gfs has done this quite alot. last month it was insisting quite often that it would be rather on the mild side, only to back down at the last minute (as did the ecm in its snowmageddon predictions). so placing too much faith in the gfs might well be a fools game.

its simply too early, things are too uncertain, to guess next weeks weather thats firmly in fi.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Well if we were to assume just for a moment that the ECM was to verify and with the proper cold air locked away to the North and East behind that frenzy of shortwaves, then I think many will be disappointed to be losing the pleasant sunshine of today and tomorrow. No fun in chilly-ish wet atlantic weather at all even more especially with the days getting longer. A lot of indecision though at the moment with the operational models in general, although some quite stark agreement just now from the GFS ensembles for another cold spell

I agree. Damp and cool would be pointless. Contrary to the views of Chris above ^^^ I'm not swiping at anyone for being a 'mildie'. I would quite happily welcome some warmth BUT it's March and what the GFS 12z is showing would make for a very very interesting period of weather. First and foremost I'm a weather enthusiast who has very little interest in weeks on end of what I would call 'nothingness'. This includes (in equal measures) blue skies and grey drab skies. I had weeks of nothingness last year and I really couldn't stomach any more of it.

The GFS route offers me all the things Iove meteorologically.........clear spells, sunshine, convection (CBs, thunderstorms, hail), night frosts etc etc. If the route to some interesting weather is through cold then so be it.

My point to you originally, Chris, is that March is the 4th coldest month of the year and there is bound to be cold spells which dominate some years. The past few seasons (spring) have spoilt the warmth lovers rotten. April 2007, March 2012 to name but two. How about we have some summer in summer eh and leave spring to the wonderful variety it can offer us......both mild and cold.

[winterof79]

850's just below -5c don't really have the same effect this time of year as they would in mid-winter.

The T2M temps for Manchester are not that cold, barley going below 5c during the day.

Still not buying into your highest hill theory and mostly Scotland

http://www.wetterzen...chester_ens.png come to our side of the pennines in an easterly/ne flow and it will snow.

http://www.meteociel...H0-216.GIF?04-0

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=286&ext=1&y=44&run=12&runpara=0

Edited March 4, 2013 by winterof79

[cooling climate]

The less said about the ECM 12z the better it seems to be making a right

pigs ear out things once it seperates that small piece of vortex from the main

parcel at t120-144 you know its going to be a long drawn out affair to get any

colder air further south.

[nicknacknoo]

It doesn't just tease though does it?!!

It's a continual severe prod in the "snowballs"

[chris78]

I agree. Damp and cool would be pointless. Contrary to the views of Chris above ^^^ I'm not swiping at anyone for being a 'mildie'. I would quite happily welcome some warmth BUT it's March and what the GFS 12z is showing would make for a very very interesting period of weather. First and foremost I'm a weather enthusiast who has very little interest in weeks on end of what I would call 'nothingness'. This includes (in equal measures) blue skies and grey drab skies. I had weeks of nothingness last year and I really couldn't stomach any more of it.

The GFS route offers me all the things Iove meteorologically.........clear spells, sunshine, convection (CBs, thunderstorms, hail), night frosts etc etc. If the route to some interesting weather is through cold then so be it.

My point to you originally, Chris, is that March is the 4th coldest month of the year and there is bound to be cold spells which dominate some years. The past few seasons (spring) have spoilt the warmth lovers rotten. April 2007, March 2012 to name but two. How about we have some summer in summer eh and leave spring to the wonderful variety it can offer us......both mild and cold.

CC I think we agree ...and after all it doesn't matter what we want the weather doesn't care.......all i was saying was (and mods I honestly think this bit is relevant to the thread even if a lot of the discussion I inadvertently started certainly was'nt) As at this time of year we all 'like to see different things its doesnt help the chart readers with limited experience to say 'thats better' or 'great chart' I might think great there must show a warm up..... Its that assumption that we all want cold...I know most of you want cold so I would have enough respect not come on saying a chart was great if it meant double figures......i am only asking for the same.....

[Mair Snaw]

we are all forgetting one thing here folks, its the gfs so it must be wrong as it has been all winter, during Jan and Feb most members on here myself included spent two months tossing the gfs in the bin and trusting the ecm totally...... what a fickle bunch we are...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

It's quite amazing how there is close grouping between the 14th/15th March on the 12z GFS ensembles but quite a lot of scatter from the 11th March.

Once again we see a ECM run where the real deep cold is kept between T216 and T240.

At this minute it's the UKMO and ECM verses the GFS. It doesn't currently look great for a countrywide very cold and snowy spell unless you are willing to put all your faith in the GFS.

[Polar Maritime]

we are all forgetting one thing here folks, its the gfs so it must be wrong as it has been all winter, during Jan and Feb most members on here myself included spent two months tossing the gfs in the bin and trusting the ecm totally...... what a fickle bunch we are...

Maybe because it showed what people wanted during the Winter month's..

Edited March 4, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[winterof79]

The less said about the ECM 12z the better it seems to be making a right

pigs ear out things once it seperates that small piece of vortex from the main

parcel at t120-144 you know its going to be a long drawn out affair to get any

colder air further south.

Looks ok further north still

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013030412/ECM1-216.GIF?04-0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013030412/ECM0-216.GIF?04-0

METO still saying middle next week.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z again initially a slow burner as the 00z but nowhere near as slow and the cold air does win, the 522 dam line clears to the south of the uk with it's deeper cold , Gfs 12z again synoptically rather better but since the ecm is a more accurate model, this will cause concern for areas south of scotland wanting a return of winter but it does return on this run and is much better than the ecm 00z.

It looks unsettled from midweek and mild in the south but colder uppers slowly inching south and snow for hills in scotland by next weekend.

[Gibby]

Good evening. Here is the evening report from the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for tonight Monday March 4th 2013.

All models show a change is afoot to rather more unsettled conditions as Low pressure well to the SW advance NE towards Southern Britain towards the end of the week. Troughs of Low pressure will precede this Low pressure moving up from the SW and becoming slow moving over Northern Britain. So a fine day tomorrow will be the last in the South for a while as cloud and outbreaks of rain move in later on Wednesday. The remainder of the week and weekend stay unsettled with rain at times with Northern areas becoming rather colder again over the weekend as an Easterly flow looks likely.

GFS then shows a cold spell developing as High pressure over Greenland pushes a ridge SE over the UK. There would be a spell of NE winds for all with wintry showers of sleet and snow in the North and East with some daytime ones too further South and West in cold conditions with sharp night frosts. It's not until late in FI before High pressure slips SE over the UK with continuing frosty weather and dry conditions by then before milder air crosses over the North of the High and over the UK bringing milder conditions later.

The GFS Ensembles show almost total agreement in colder conditions following the milder interlude for the rest of this week. Rain at times develops too and with temperatures falling some of this will no doubt fall as snow for a time before things become somewhat milder again towards the end of FI.

The Jet Stream shows no sign of moving North anytime soon maintaining it's Southerly position for the next week. However, right at the end of the high resolution part of the run the flow is shown to ridge North close to the Southwest of the UK.

UKMO shows an unsettled end to the weekend with a complex Low pressure system lying North South close to the West of the UK. With SSE winds the weather would be unsettled with rain and heavy showers scattered about in near average temperatures.

ECM tonight shows an unsettled weekend too with rain at times as Low pressure takes control, centred close to Southern Britain next Sunday and the start of next week. Further on the Low departs to the East with a cold Northerly flow in it's wake with plentiful showers in the flow falling more and more as sleet and snow even in the South as the Arctic flow floods South.

In Summary tonight the weather is set to turn milder then more unsettled for a time. It is likely to be short-lived as cold East winds might engulf the North over the weekend and elsewhere too later next week as High pressure near Greenland forces Low pressure away East and allow cold Northerly winds to develop with wintry showers and frosts by night. It should be noted that specific details about next weeks weather will change from run to run but it is becoming more and more likely that cold weather to some degree will return to many areas next week.