South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 08/03/13 ---->

[Beast of Plympton]

well im tiny bit confused, some say we arnt getting any and then there are pics saying we are.... so in easy talk not weather , whats happening lol..... thanks

I easy talk, we have a channel low which is mixing with the cold air north of us. The cold air and channel low can produce lots of PPN. I think some are saying no because it can be hard to predict where the precipitation will hit and how intense it will be. Some are saying yes because, as Coast says, the models are showing a high probability.

However, in this situation us on the far south are in the best position. So, it really is down to nowcasting. But the likelyhood is, you will see some snow. How intense it is, well that will be down to you to tell us that!!

Edited March 10, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[divadee]

I easy talk, we have a channel low which is mixing with the cold air north of us. The cold air and channel low can produce lots of PPN. I think some are saying no because it can be hard to predict where the precipitation will hit and how intense it will be. Some are saying yes because, as Coast says, the models are showing a high probability.

However, in this situation us on the far south are in the best position. So, it really is down to nowcasting. But the likelyhood is, you will see some snow. How intense it is, well that will be down to you to tell us that!!

Is that the same for us here in bournemouth beast?

[jazzy]

Temperature & dew point dropping quickly here, Please don't let it all be rain, have been waiting all winter for a flake of snow.

[Hurricane Buckley]

Looking at the radar its turning sleety across Devon and into Somerset, any reports of this? Just its about 6-8 hours early.

[Beast of Plympton]

Is that the same for us here in bournemouth beast?

Indeed divadee. The channel low is looking to cover most of the south coast. Met office warnings encompass the south coast. You are actually in the middle of the warning area and the say 2-4 cm widely. Again, though intensity is up for grabs so nowcasting will be fun!!

[Beast of Plympton]

Temperature & dew point dropping quickly here, Please don't let it all be rain, have been waiting all winter for a flake of snow.

Where abouts are you??

[Polar Bear]

bbc breakfast lady very very animated giving the weather for today and overnight . Yes potential was used several times as well as significant. What she did emphasise was the strong force winds to come in the channel reckoning they were unusual ( don't think so schweetheart even at this time of year) and the feel cold aspect across the south. Very excited lady.

[caz100]

thankyou for exsplaining , i shall let u know if we see white stuff...

[Brad]

Very confusing when charts show snowmageddon and Met O shows no precip at all! Anyone like to elaborate?

[AWD]

I think this post from Ian in the MOD thread just about sums up where we are currently;

"I think great caution still required re developments tomorrow. Firstly, the northern bounds of the dynamic snowfall in south remain rather flux in latest EPS, with variation between MOGREPS-R & MOGREPS-G; equally with EC. Whilst consensus is stronger to take worst conditions further south across France (and Channel Islands), there remains a 10-20% PROB of a severe event in parts of SW & S England, but for now we cater for 5-10cm Dartmoor & other SW Peninsula uplands; 5cm some other uplands of S coastal districts of England.

In short, any downplay of current prognosis should be viewed with due caution until we see detail unfolding. Hopefully this will be a non-event and disruption avoided, but it's a real weather roulette with high stakes despite low probability."

Edited March 10, 2013 by AWD

[Coast]

bbc breakfast lady very very animated giving the weather for today and overnight . Yes potential was used several times as well as significant. What she did emphasise was the strong force winds to come in the channel reckoning they were unusual ( don't think so schweetheart even at this time of year) and the feel cold aspect across the south. Very excited lady.

She picked that up about right then:

Some significant helical activity off the Devon coast overnight - dare I say blizzards?

[Man With Beard]

Great post by Ian Ferguson on MOD just now urging caution with any conclusions snowy or non-snowy (sorry can't copy and paste on my phone). This scenario has very little history in model output within T24 - just think of the variables, the front has not even developed yet, extreme cold uppers, genuine low pressure. Unless the models push the whole thing 50 miles south, this will be a radar watching exercise for anywhere within 30 miles of the south coast.

Taking just the NAE, nothing will happen. But taking all model output, you could guess at 5mm precip near the coast (maybe 10mm on S. Devon, IOW or Sussex coast), up to 2mm slighty inland (maybe Salisbury, Winchester, Petersfield, etc), other than that, prayer is needed! But this is just model output - all subject to change for better or worse.

Edited March 10, 2013 by rjbw

[Polar Bear]

She picked that up about right then:

Some significant helical activity off the Devon coast overnight - dare I say blizzards?

Hmm coast that does look interesting. I can see why she was very animated. . Certainly wish I was my parents in Chichester tonight. All eyes on the bouys in the channel later?. And that shipping forecast?. May have to get that radio on to hear the forecast this time... Gives that extra atmosphere. Although which radio channel it will be on I can't remember... Think it was four x

[A.J]

Well, good luck to all those in the southern part of the region tonight into tomorrow....I've already been on the phone to the folks & family down in Torbay to batten down the hatches for a substantial snowfall tonight!........Although it would be lovely to see inches of the white stuff fall up here in Wilts, it is looking most unlikely unless the LP area throws a curve ball, deepens, & swings 100 miles further north than forecast....Although to be fair, having been off work for a few days with a slipped disc, I need to get out and work tomorrow and snow is a big no no for my work!

[Hurricane Buckley]

Dew point here has lost 0.2oC in 10 mins not much but it shows the colder air digging in, it all seems a bit faster than forecast.

[Beast of Plympton]

Dew point here has lost 0.2oC in 10 mins not much but it shows the colder air digging in, it all seems a bit faster than forecast.

Temp dropping like a stone here now as well, 0.1c now.

Edited March 10, 2013 by Beast of Dartmoor

[latitude]

Looks like a dry cold first half the week for the Bristol area, with milder air coming in thurs - friday.

[Mark Parsons]

Roger J Smith has written an interesting post on the potential for something more dramatic across the south, he quite rightly explains how the two air masses colliding can have explosive consequences...................

[Moleyroley]

So confused I'm right on the coast (Portland dorset ) yet the met show nothing for me ??? Surely I should be in with a chance ? Can anyone explain ?!

[Coast]

So confused I'm right on the coast (Portland dorset ) yet the met show nothing for me ??? Surely I should be in with a chance ? Can anyone explain ?!

Yes, Met are out on their own a bit at the moment although they do cover you area in some charts and models. I really wouldn't worry too much at the moment as look what precip is coming on the radar:

Roger J Smith has written an interesting post on the potential for something more dramatic across the south, he quite rightly explains how the two air masses colliding can have explosive consequences...................

It might be a little OTT, but i'm sure this event will be notable for March for a lot of you guys

Edited March 10, 2013 by Coast

[Moleyroley]

Thank you coast , here's hoping we get something special !

[A.J]

Roger J Smith has written an interesting post on the potential for something more dramatic across the south, he quite rightly explains how the two air masses colliding can have explosive consequences...................

Yes, an interesting post from Roger, an extreme solution I think we'd all agree but still plausible, a collision of two very different air masses can be the catalyst for some dramatic weather (severe thunderstorm season on the Great Plains in the USA being a prime example)......As it stands at the moment, forecasters are leaning away from such a scenario, but it would be wise at this juncture IMO to err on the side of caution as quite simply who knows what the situation will be like synoptically come this time tomorrow

Edited March 10, 2013 by ajpoolshark
spelling!

[AWD]

Latest NAE shows a very slight shift north regarding the low. Flurries breaking out for areas north of the M4 later this afternoon;

Becoming more widespread this evening and overnight;

Before some heavier snowfall skirts the southern coastline, and in particularly Torbay and Dartmoor;

[tufty]

Removed the shovel from the van yesterday thinking i wont need that anymore this winter........so somethings bound to happen now.

[AWD]

NAE snow accumulation for end of play Monday show only Torbay and Dartmoor to receive a covering;