Spring Model Discussion 18Z 9/3/13 onwards....

[Summer Sun]

GFS says no to UKMO's T144 easterly

UKMO

This must be giving the folk at Exeter a few headaches

[Cheshire Freeze]

and no big freeze...just cool murky wet weather. looks to me like a 'no win for anyone' chart.

Thicknesses look the right side of marginal to me. I'll leave it for someone to do the maths, but falling snow looks a possibility to me.

[frosty ground]

and no big freeze...just cool murky wet weather. looks to me like a 'no win for anyone' chart.

Errrrrm It's March Mushy not winter but it's below average and it is what it is!

[Captain Shortwave]

and no big freeze...just cool murky wet weather. looks to me like a 'no win for anyone' chart.

The UKMO chart has a lot of potential. Whilst we can't see the uppers on that chart. GEM is very similar.

We would have another surge of very cold uppers under an airmass which is more unstable than the one we are currently experiencing. The wintry potential if we keep low pressure to the South of us is very large.

[Matty M]

GFS says no to UKMO's T144 easterly

UKMO

This must be giving the folk at Exeter a few headaches

They would be having a few worries but overall there is strong agreement from the main models ECM/ ECM EPS and UKM for the easterly incursion.

The GFS output is certainly an outlier and 80-90% of the UKMET weighting goes on the UKM/ECM.

[shaky]

well i must say this weekend was always gona b a cold rain fest and it isnt till next week when the snow actually makes a comeback!!monday to be precise!!anyway for all the mild lovers out there all am gona say is is that there aint no sign of any mild weather whatsoever so might aswell keep the t-shirts and all the summerwear deep inside the drawers and take them out at this rate around about may!!infact there could be prolonged snowfall next week if the ecm and ukmo are anything to go by!!

[Purga]

A widespread frost for the equinox!

Nice

[LomondSnowstorm]

and no big freeze...just cool murky wet weather. looks to me like a 'no win for anyone' chart.

sub 520 thicknesses into northeast England, precipitation widely falling as snow for most places. Again, your hatred of cold weather does seem to blinker your view, just as the dislike of mild does of some in here. With those kinds of uppers another sunshine and showers easterly would become a distinct possibility, whereas the most milder uppers could deliver with the blocking we have in place at present is either a very wet southerly or a very dull southeasterly, neither of which are particularly desirable from an interest or indeed a good weather perspective. If something genuinely warm and sunny were on the cards I'd be quite happy about that but for now the main interest is in the cold prospects.

[cooling climate]

The UKMO chart is very,very good and it looks to me that if

the run went out to t168 we could see the very cold pool to the

east over eastern Europe getting caught in the easterly flow and

filtering some of the very cold uppers towards the UK as everything

drops further south.

Also the UKMO 12z run is the same as the 06z and 12z GFS in that it

makes less of the energy over northern Scandinavia.

Could be a very interesting ECM tonight.

[Frosty.]

id take the gfs 12z.... i might get wet but i could work.

its a continuation of the cool with rain or showers theme within a semi reliable timeframe, after all, all models agree that this trough will be cool and will be somewhere close to or over the uk for several days. no point in getting hopeful for fi, no matter what it shows.

So that means you are ignoring the meto outlook issued a few hours ago for significant snow next week then mush? nothing has changed, the further north you go, the more wintry it becomes but slight adjustments of the trough and we are back in the very cold weather with snow potential on a nationwide scale. I actually think there will be more snow across the uk next week than this week although not the severe penetrating cold we had on monday, but cold/very cold for the time of year should satisfy those looking for as much wintry potential as we can squeeze out of the next 6 weeks or so.

Edited March 13, 2013 by Frosty039

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So winter goes on and on. UKMO and ECM bring a bitter east blast back in, I'll be backing them against the GFS at this stage, but GFS not too far away. I'm still waiting for the SW'lies that Fergie tweeted about to Matt Hugo back in early Feb to arrive. Were they talkng about the CFS in April? [joke, I know it was what some models were hinting at]

Jetstream remaining well south of normal, this ongoing pattern of last 5 years seems to be continuing. I must admit, some Spring warmth will be welcome when it comes me thinks.

I see the MetO going for significant snow next week? {have they been reading Piers?] Maybe hedging their bets due to forecasts like Carol K put out that there'd be no problematic snow last event....I think those trapped in cars for 15 hrs would disagree.

I think there could be some issues ahead, if not localised problem with snow, maybe some hefty rainfall coming our way and with water tables still high...it won't take too much.

BFTP

Edited March 13, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Coast]

Just a polite reminder that the thread seems to be wandering again and becoming more about personalties and preferences of posters, rather than constructive analysis of models and what you see that may bring in the way of weather.

Considered opinion on future events based on current models are the stuff of this thread, but could we get back to being a little more friendly and courteous about fellow posters views, as their thoughts could be just as valid as your own at this point?

If you want to have a right moan or celebrate something meteorological you've seen to do with models; try this thread:

Thanks folks, sorry to go on!!!

[Thundery wintry showers]

I can see where Mushy is coming from because if I look at the UKMO T+144 chart in isolation it does look like a cold rain/sleet fest to me, but an examination of the synoptic evolution suggests otherwise. We get a slack showery setup over the weekend with slow-moving fronts over SE England and northern Scotland, and then as the main focus of low pressure drifts to the SE it would send the front over northern Scotland back southwards again and it may well turn to snow as the cold air digs in from the north-east. If there was a T+168 chart there's a good chance it would be similar to the T+168 on this morning's ECMWF run, with the fronts clearing to the south and north-easterlies over the British Isles with a mix of sun and snow showers.

The GFS 12Z keeps the low over us for an eternity, and gives us the same scenario for the weekend with fronts over the far north and south-east with sunshine and wintry showers elsewhere. However, it is unclear whether the resulting weather would be predominantly bright with wintry showers into next week, or dull with sleety rain, because the precipitation and temperature outputs suggest that there may be slow-moving fronts circulating around the low. I say "sleety rain" because I think for widespread frontal snow we'd need more of an attack of colder air from the N or NE, like on the UKMO/ECM.

Edited March 13, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[swfc]

Spring indeed does look a long way off at the moment and the northern blocking and southerly jet dont bode well for later in the spring moving into into april- may.Lets hope we can at least get some warmth and dry weather when the cold and snow potential finally gives up.Think it was a wednesday in june we had summer here and need a big improvement this year.Id be going for some middle ground on the current output between gfs and ecm altho the ukmo is heading towards the much colder weather returning.Interesting ecm due out!!!!

[mushymanrob]

Thicknesses look the right side of marginal to me. I'll leave it for someone to do the maths, but falling snow looks a possibility to me.

i agree, but its rather far off to predict any precip with any accuracy, but as its march id suggest that even with the correct sypotics its still going to be hard to get a freeze off that chart, any snow wil be short lived but as john has said, its a mugs game trying to predict preciptation this far out.

Errrrrm It's March Mushy not winter but it's below average and it is what it is!

eerm...i know, that what i put! lol

The UKMO chart has a lot of potential. Whilst we can't see the uppers on that chart. GEM is very similar.

We would have another surge of very cold uppers under an airmass which is more unstable than the one we are currently experiencing. The wintry potential if we keep low pressure to the South of us is very large.

it has potential to develop, but atm that chart in isolation is not one that smacks of a snow event to me.... hey it might come off and i might be wrong.

sub 520 thicknesses into northeast England, precipitation widely falling as snow for most places. Again, your hatred of cold weather does seem to blinker your view, just as the dislike of mild does of some in here. With those kinds of uppers another sunshine and showers easterly would become a distinct possibility, whereas the most milder uppers could deliver with the blocking we have in place at present is either a very wet southerly or a very dull southeasterly, neither of which are particularly desirable from an interest or indeed a good weather perspective. If something genuinely warm and sunny were on the cards I'd be quite happy about that but for now the main interest is in the cold prospects.

bib if that were true then i wouldnt have ignored the snow potential last nights runs suggested. the ecm and gfs both had large snow potential

the point is that that chart is only one chart with no support from the gfs , plus its march, we are not immune from snow, by a mile, but i dont see that one chart as it stands as being one i worry about. (unlike last nights ecm and gfs).

So that means you are ignoring the meto outlook issued a few hours ago for significant snow next week then mush?

not read it mate... IF the ecm and gfs firm up on what they showed last night then yes, the snow/freeze potential is unusually large for this time of the year. so whilst that ukmo chart shifts towards a colder outlook, todays ecm and gfs have shifted away from the worst.

the coldies are yet again picking the run that suits their prefered weather type... over the last couple of days its shifted from the gfs, to the ecm, now its the ukmo... last evenings runs were awful for those of us who dont like/want anymore cold, but as today the gfs and ecm have backed off from the more severe outlook, the ukmo now starts to hint at it.

we MIGHT get plunged back into something wintry (after coming out friday) , it might be severe, there are alot of very cold uppers not too far away, but as things stand atm only the ukmo suggests it might happen, both the ecm and gfs have tempered it. only further runs and time will determine what we get.

[chris55]

the coldies are yet again picking the run that suits their prefered weather type... over the last couple of days its shifted from the gfs, to the ecm, now its the ukmo... last evenings runs were awful for those of us who dont like/want anymore cold, but as today the gfs and ecm have backed off from the more severe outlook, the ukmo now starts to hint at it.

You do seem to get your facts wrong quite often MMR, ECM 00z was very cold.

http://www.wetterzen...cs/Recm1441.gif (00z at time of posting)

We will have to wait and see what the ECM 12z brings us.

Edited March 13, 2013 by chris55

[lorenzo]

Okay, place your bets where to from here ... FI probably will weigh in around 96 -120 for the placement of this feature..a good old model rollercoaster beckons..

Beautiful blocked Atlantic.

[Katiewombat]

Okay, place your bets where to from here ... FI probably will weigh in around 96 -120 for the placement of this feature..a good old model rollercoaster beckons..

Beautiful blocked Atlantic.

Can I ask a very stupid beginners question. Does the yellow rude looking thing represent the block I

K

[-uksnow-]

Can I ask a very stupid beginners question. Does the yellow rude looking thing represent the block I

K

Yes!

[peterf]

Mushy i like reading your posts,but any chance we can lay off the Armageddon scenarios for the flora and fauna.you as well as me know that's not how things would pan out even with the most severe March weather on record.

the balance will always be regained as it has long before we arrived.

weather does what weather does.

we have thousands of lambs due 19th onwards and not worried in the least.prepared yes! but not worried regards a cataclysmic event regards all things living outdoors.

[Captain Shortwave]

T120 ECM very similar to UKMO

Easterly incoming

Edited March 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[ChartViewer]

Beautiful looking chart...oh for this in Dec/Jan....best looking charts ive seen for ages other than that ECM. Obviously uppers arent fantastic but all same

Edited March 13, 2013 by ChartViewer

[Summer Sun]

Looking likely ECM will follow UKMO at t144

[Snowman.]

Why is everyone getting excited over this?

Its the middle of march your going to need some very cold uppers for sustained snow what your just posting is a chilly wet day that I would expect in December. The further south you live the less excited you should be.

[Katiewombat]

Yes!

Think I am finally learning the basics

K