Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/03/13 21z---->

[Snowmaggedon]

the models are all over the place but it looks like the gfs is starting to come inline with ukmo and ecm ,local weather forecast on bbc1 this morning had

plenty of snow for us tonight

Did they talk of any accumulations during tonight?

[Boro Snow]

Did they talk of any accumulations during tonight?

no ill see if i can find it and put it on here

[Boro Snow]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2651513

[SnowdropMay28]

Yuck.....wet&dull....worse thing is when i look out my windows just a distance away on to the hills there is snow on them&it

actually looks like it's snowing there too....gutted....think i'll just not have to look out my windows in that direction,lol.

#

[Snowmaggedon]

Well I watched John Hammond's forecast and we appear to be in the sweet spot for this weekend's frontal event. Dear Lord, please let it stay that way. In fact, bless us with an upgrade. Amen.

[Snowmaggedon]

A weather warning has been put up for those of us further South in the region. 1-3cm may accumulate in places.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Snowmaggedon

[NickR]

A weather warning has been put up for those of us further South in the region. 1-3cm may accumulate in places.

What is this? The South East?

[Summer Sun]

A weather warning has been put up for those of us further South in the region. 1-3cm may accumulate in places.

The chief forecaster thinks it will be marginal at lower levels

A frontal system which has brought rain to eastern Norfolk during Tuesday is expected to pivot westwards across northern England overnight. As colder air feeds in from the east, the rain is likely to turn increasingly to sleet and snow, especially on high ground. However, temperatures will be marginal for snow at low levels so there is some uncertainty over snow amounts here. The public are advised to keep in touch with the forecasts through today.

It could be a similar situation to Sunday where the snow only sticks to roofs ect and doesn't lay on the roads

Issued at: 1132 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid from: 2100 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid to: 1000 on Wed 20 Mar 2013

A spell of sleet or snow is likely to develop across parts of Norfolk this evening and then spread westwards overnight across Lincolnshire and parts of northern England to the east of the Pennines. 1 to 3 cm may accumulate in places, perhaps locally as much as 5 cm above 200 metres. The public should be aware of the potential for some disruption to travel.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

The chief forecaster thinks it will be marginal at lower levels

A frontal system which has brought rain to eastern Norfolk during Tuesday is expected to pivot westwards across northern England overnight. As colder air feeds in from the east, the rain is likely to turn increasingly to sleet and snow, especially on high ground. However, temperatures will be marginal for snow at low levels so there is some uncertainty over snow amounts here. The public are advised to keep in touch with the forecasts through today.

It could be a similar situation to Sunday where the snow only sticks to roofs ect and doesn't lay on the roads

Issued at: 1132 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid from: 2100 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid to: 1000 on Wed 20 Mar 2013

A spell of sleet or snow is likely to develop across parts of Norfolk this evening and then spread westwards overnight across Lincolnshire and parts of northern England to the east of the Pennines. 1 to 3 cm may accumulate in places, perhaps locally as much as 5 cm above 200 metres. The public should be aware of the potential for some disruption to travel.

Well the Met Office haven't mentioned marginality with regards to this weekend, they seem confident that its going to be snow and not rain/sleet

[Summer Sun]

Fridays event is looking a bit complex this morning especially for North east England (Scotland has no such problems) taking a look at the uppers ECM keeps the coldest uppers over the NE whilst UKMO and GFS have slightly milder uppers

GFS and UKMO

ECM

This complexity is highlighted here

Consett high elevation heavy snow most of Friday - http://www.metoffice...Time=1363910400

Darlington low elevation sleet and or rain most of the day with some light snow just after midnight - http://www.metoffice...Time=1363910400

Middlesbrough again low elevation sleet and rain all day - http://www.metoffice...Time=1363910400

How much snow lower levels could get remains to be seen a case of watch this space places like consett seem odds on to get buried again

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

Early snow warning now out seems the met are going for the colder uppers at first all is down to how quick the milder air gets in coastal areas look marginal

Issued at: 1213 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Fri 22 Mar 2013

Valid to: 1800 on Sat 23 Mar 2013

An area of rain and sleet moving up from the south, will turn increasingly to snow as it does so. Some heavy and persistent snowfall is likely to develop across the higher parts of northern England and much of southern and eastern Scotland away from immediate coastal areas, with in excess of 10 cm of snow in many inland parts, and perhaps much more than this over hills. Taking into account the likelihood of strong to gale force winds, some atrocious conditions with drifting and blizzards are expected for some upland areas in particular, and it is possible that this warning will eventually be upgraded to Amber. The public should be aware of the likelihood of another spell of difficult and disruptive wintry weather.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Following a slightly quieter interlude midweek, an active frontal system will push northwards during Thursday, increasingly coming into contact with the block of unusually cold air in place across northern Britain, the North Sea and Scandinavia. Snow may start towards the end of Thursday across the higher parts of northern England but the main problems look like being into Friday and Saturday, as a combination of strong winds and persistent snow leads to some particularly wintry weather - especially for so late in the season. There are some uncertainties at this stage in exactly where the worst of the snow will be, and to what extent slightly less cold air will creep into the south of the area covered by the Alert, so watch for updates.

[Snowmaggedon]

Early snow warning now out seems the met are going for the colder uppers at first all is down to how quick the milder air gets in coastal areas look marginal

Issued at: 1213 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Valid from: 0005 on Fri 22 Mar 2013

Valid to: 1800 on Sat 23 Mar 2013

An area of rain and sleet moving up from the south, will turn increasingly to snow as it does so. Some heavy and persistent snowfall is likely to develop across the higher parts of northern England and much of southern and eastern Scotland away from immediate coastal areas, with in excess of 10 cm of snow in many inland parts, and perhaps much more than this over hills. Taking into account the likelihood of strong to gale force winds, some atrocious conditions with drifting and blizzards are expected for some upland areas in particular, and it is possible that this warning will eventually be upgraded to Amber. The public should be aware of the likelihood of another spell of difficult and disruptive wintry weather.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Following a slightly quieter interlude midweek, an active frontal system will push northwards during Thursday, increasingly coming into contact with the block of unusually cold air in place across northern Britain, the North Sea and Scandinavia. Snow may start towards the end of Thursday across the higher parts of northern England but the main problems look like being into Friday and Saturday, as a combination of strong winds and persistent snow leads to some particularly wintry weather - especially for so late in the season. There are some uncertainties at this stage in exactly where the worst of the snow will be, and to what extent slightly less cold air will creep into the south of the area covered by the Alert, so watch for updates.

And once again my hopes are dashed from an imby perspective

[Summer Sun]

Latest met office update suggests snow is possible for another week to week and a half (possibly the greatest accumulations will be on the hills snow at lower levels wont last long now not at this time of the year) before it looks like finally turning milder

UK Outlook for Sunday 24 Mar 2013 to Tuesday 2 Apr 2013:

Wet and windy weather affecting most areas at times at the start of the period, with snow likely across Scotland and perhaps northern England, mainly accumulating on hills with a risk of blizzards in strong easterly winds. Temperatures here likely to be well below normal for the time of year, but slightly milder in the south with temperatures initially around average, but getting colder again later in the week. Conditions look to remain changeable, but perhaps less unsettled into the weekend and the start of April. Further snow is possible at times in central and northern areas as bands of rain try to push the colder air away from the UK, with a signal that temperatures should eventually recover in most areas to around normal for the time of year.

Updated: 1215 on Tue 19 Mar 2013

Longer term snow becomes more restricted to the hills

UK Outlook for Wednesday 3 Apr 2013 to Wednesday 17 Apr 2013:

Into the start of April, southern parts of the UK are likely to remain the most unsettled, with above average rainfall and near or just above average temperatures. Further north the temperatures could start off near normal, but may possibly experience colder than average conditions at times during April with a risk of overnight frosts and perhaps further snowfall at times, mainly on hills and mountains. Sunshine amounts here likely to be close to the seasonal average in the west of the UK, and just below average in the east.

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[Boro Snow]

And once again my hopes are dashed from an imby perspective

why you say that, its far to early to know whats gonna happen thurs into fri for sure,, the models are changing all the time, keep the faith Edited March 19, 2013 by Boro Snow

[Summer Sun]

why you say that, its far to early to know whats gonna happen thurs into fri for sure the models are changing all the time, keep the faith

Yes this isn't set yet far from it the next 24 to 36 hours will give us a clear picture

Currently 4.8°C here and cloudy dew point is 2.7°C

It doesn't feel all that cold outside today now the wind has gone light

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[Boro Snow]

Yes this isn't set yet far from it the next 24 to 36 hours will give us a clear picture

Currently 4.8°C here and cloudy dew point is 2.7°C

It doesn't feel all that cold outside today now the wind has gone light

summit up with pierremont its suddenly jumped to a barmy 7.3 degrees

[Summer Sun]

summit up with pierremont its suddenly jumped to a barmy 7.3 degrees

Just notice that I got that temp off the other Darlo one

BBC forecast just been on currently snow is likely at first on Friday but that graphic turned to sleet later in the day, temps here are just 2 or 3c but in the south 9's and 10's were showing so milder air is going to push in its just a case of how quickly or slowly it gets up here

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[tynevalleysnow]

Steady light snowfall now here for last hour or so after shower all morning. Temp and dp of -0.5 and snow depth of just over 5 inches away from drifts. Could be some record depths for march if tonights snow and fridays deliver.

[Summer Sun]

This is how the beeb see things by Thursday the BBC One O'clock news went to Friday but this forecast doesn't

[Snowmaggedon]

This is how the beeb see things by Thursday the BBC One O'clock news went to Friday but this forecast doesn't

This suggests nothing will be set in stone until the 'event' itself. There's still some hope lol

[Summer Sun]

This suggests nothing will be set in stone until the 'event' itself. There's still some hope lol

I should also add,

In a line straight across from Newport (wales) to Norwich the averages will be around 5c to 6c (milder still to the south of this line 8 to 10c widely). From Lincoln north the averages will be (at this stage) 1c in mainland Scotland to around 4c in Lincoln with 2's and 3's else where (including this region) during the afternoon the snow slowly starts to turn to rain / sleet once that milder air to the south of us makes progress further north into this region

[Summer Sun]

Parts of higher ground in the region could look like this by Friday (curtsey of Scottish Borders Council today's snow fall on somewhere on the A697 in Northumberland)

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

Does tonight look promising then?

[Summer Sun]

A bit of rain & hail in Darlo

We should get a bit of snow tonight but I don't expect anything major to fall maybe a light covering for most parts

[Summer Sun]

12z has now updated for the end of the week here is a run through for the snow

Of course this shouldn't be taken for Gospel its one run from one model but GFS shows no marginal scenario