Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/03/13 21z---->

[Snowmaggedon]

Well the MO are not backing down. They still suggest that we will see heavy snow this weekend in their 3-5 day forecast.

[Thundery wintry showers]

A large part of me would like the warm weather to hold off until the beginning of April to give us a shot at a sub-1996 March CET, but the current model outputs are otherwise hardly thrilling me- it looks bitterly cold, grey and not very snowy out to T+168, unless the GFS is placing the frontal system for Friday too far south and west.

The skew-t chart for Hull for T+96 tells us what we need to know about the upcoming easterly:

http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/tempskew/skew0.10305192608303.png

The "dry lid" starting at the 850hPa level, combined with a fair amount of instability in the 850-1000hPa zone (sea temperatures of around +5, 850hPa temperatures of around -10) should result in extensive stratocumulus trapped underneath the cap.

There are hints of brighter weather at around T+168 thanks to a ridge of high pressure or northerly type but that's quite a long time to wait for sunshine.

[NickR]

So, to sum up, TWS: Grim.

[Summer Sun]

Met office storms official twitter page

UK weather warnings will be updated later this morning with warning areas for snow on Fri/Sat likely to be shifted south and west

[Snowmaggedon]

Met office storms official twitter page

UK weather warnings will be updated later this morning with warning areas for snow on Fri/Sat likely to be shifted south and west

GFS this morning has the front further North, we need this to continue. Can't see this being solved until the day itself. Edited March 20, 2013 by Snowmaggedon

[Summer Sun]

GFS this morning has the front further North, we need this to continue. Can't see this being solved until the day itself.

The pennines could come into play as well its happened many times before as the precipitation makes its way across it looses its energy and we are left with light and patchy stuff its happen earlier this year when the west had heavy snow here hardly anything

[Snowmaggedon]

So Sods Law tells us it could be game over for our region in the next couple of hours when the MO update the warnings.

[Boro Snow]

The pennines could come into play as well its happened many times before as the precipitation makes its way across it looses its energy and we are left with light and patchy stuff its happen earlier this year when the west had heavy snow here hardly anything

the low is coming in at a different angle though isnt it, rather than west to east so the pennines wont come into play as much anyway it doesnt matter because it wont be reaching us anyway by the looks of it, horrible day in darlo once again we had some snow between 8-9am now its just grey damp cold and depressing Edited March 20, 2013 by Boro Snow

[Thundery wintry showers]

GFS 06Z looks rather less grim to me- the northern flank of the frontal belt gets into the region and then afterwards we get a colder easterly flow which would probably bring some snow flurries off the North Sea, although still probably with a significant cap on convection and mainly cloudy conditions. If that run verifies we could well see some unusually low maxima for late-March.

[Summer Sun]

Fridays warning has just been updated northern most point is southern Scotland now we are still under a warning

An area of rain and sleet moving from the south, will turn increasingly to snow as it does so. Towards some east coastal areas, heavy rain and sleet will perhaps remain more likely, with a risk of localised flooding, mainly in the east of Northern Ireland. However some heavy and persistent snowfall is likely to develop across many other areas, with in excess of 10 cm of snow in some inland parts, and perhaps much more than this over hills. Taking into account the strong to gale force winds, some atrocious conditions with drifting and blizzards are expected for many upland areas in particular, and it is increasingly likely that this warning will eventually be upgraded to Amber for parts of this region. This is an update of the warning issued on Tuesday, pulling the focus of the snow further south and west, in line with latest thoughts. The public should be aware of the likelihood of a spell of difficult and disruptive wintry weather, with impacts on travel and, perhaps, on power supplies.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Following a slightly quieter interlude midweek, an active frontal system will push northwards during Thursday, increasingly coming into contact with the block of unusually cold air in place across northern Britain, the North Sea and Scandinavia. Since yesterday, indications are that the front will grind to a halt further south, potentially affecting a broad swathe of central Britain from some 24 to 36 hours. During this period, a combination of strong winds and persistent snow looks like leading to some particularly wintry weather - especially for so late in the season. There remain some uncertainties at this stage in exactly where the worst of the snow will be, and in some low-lying areas the rain-snow balance is not yet clear-cut, which means that further refinements to the warning area are very likely.

Covers: Darlington, Durham, Gateshead, Northumberland, Redcar and Cleveland, Newcastle upon Tyne

The latest forecast from the met office has Darlo snow free until Saturday now - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1363910400

Edited March 20, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowmaggedon]

Fridays warning has just been updated northern most point is southern Scotland now we are still under a warning

An area of rain and sleet moving from the south, will turn increasingly to snow as it does so. Towards some east coastal areas, heavy rain and sleet will perhaps remain more likely, with a risk of localised flooding, mainly in the east of Northern Ireland. However some heavy and persistent snowfall is likely to develop across many other areas, with in excess of 10 cm of snow in some inland parts, and perhaps much more than this over hills. Taking into account the strong to gale force winds, some atrocious conditions with drifting and blizzards are expected for many upland areas in particular, and it is increasingly likely that this warning will eventually be upgraded to Amber for parts of this region. This is an update of the warning issued on Tuesday, pulling the focus of the snow further south and west, in line with latest thoughts. The public should be aware of the likelihood of a spell of difficult and disruptive wintry weather, with impacts on travel and, perhaps, on power supplies.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Following a slightly quieter interlude midweek, an active frontal system will push northwards during Thursday, increasingly coming into contact with the block of unusually cold air in place across northern Britain, the North Sea and Scandinavia. Since yesterday, indications are that the front will grind to a halt further south, potentially affecting a broad swathe of central Britain from some 24 to 36 hours. During this period, a combination of strong winds and persistent snow looks like leading to some particularly wintry weather - especially for so late in the season. There remain some uncertainties at this stage in exactly where the worst of the snow will be, and in some low-lying areas the rain-snow balance is not yet clear-cut, which means that further refinements to the warning area are very likely.

Covers: Darlington, Durham, Gateshead, Northumberland, Redcar and Cleveland, Newcastle upon Tyne

Phewww, but Teesside still misses out lol. How on earth are Redcar under a warning when they are literally on the coast??? Edited March 20, 2013 by Snowmaggedon

[peterf]

Scarborough trip looks doomed for Friday.

[seabreeze86]

Phewww, but Teesside still misses out lol. How on earth are Redcar under a warning when they are literally on the coast???

Because it says Redcar and Cleveland, plenty of high ground in cleveland places like guisbrough and skelton always do well in these set ups.

Edited March 20, 2013 by seabreeze86

[Summer Sun]

New warning out for Northumberland now

Issued at: 1153 on Wed 20 Mar 2013

Valid from: 2200 on Thu 21 Mar 2013

Valid to: 1100 on Sat 23 Mar 2013

Further snow showers are expected, bringing mainly slight accumulations of snow but perhaps a few cm over some inland and hilly parts. Ice may continue to be a problem night and morning, primarily on untreated surfaces. The public should be aware of the possibility of further localised disruption, for example to travel.

[Snowmaggedon]

Well the maximum temperature for Middlesbrough is 2 degrees over the course of the weekend so if the front does reach here it should be snow

Edited March 20, 2013 by Snowmaggedon

[Summer Sun]

The Durham ensemble shows almost 9 days of very little in the way of rain fall (doesn't mean it won't snow thought)

Easter Saturday has temperatures that resemble spring! sadly rain looks likely at this stage so a mild wet Easter at this very early stage

Getting warmer by Easter Sunday nothing special but after this cold boy would that feel nice out of any rain!

[Boro Snow]

Fridays warning has just been updated northern most point is southern Scotland now we are still under a warning

An area of rain and sleet moving from the south, will turn increasingly to snow as it does so. Towards some east coastal areas, heavy rain and sleet will perhaps remain more likely, with a risk of localised flooding, mainly in the east of Northern Ireland. However some heavy and persistent snowfall is likely to develop across many other areas, with in excess of 10 cm of snow in some inland parts, and perhaps much more than this over hills. Taking into account the strong to gale force winds, some atrocious conditions with drifting and blizzards are expected for many upland areas in particular, and it is increasingly likely that this warning will eventually be upgraded to Amber for parts of this region. This is an update of the warning issued on Tuesday, pulling the focus of the snow further south and west, in line with latest thoughts. The public should be aware of the likelihood of a spell of difficult and disruptive wintry weather, with impacts on travel and, perhaps, on power supplies.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Following a slightly quieter interlude midweek, an active frontal system will push northwards during Thursday, increasingly coming into contact with the block of unusually cold air in place across northern Britain, the North Sea and Scandinavia. Since yesterday, indications are that the front will grind to a halt further south, potentially affecting a broad swathe of central Britain from some 24 to 36 hours. During this period, a combination of strong winds and persistent snow looks like leading to some particularly wintry weather - especially for so late in the season. There remain some uncertainties at this stage in exactly where the worst of the snow will be, and in some low-lying areas the rain-snow balance is not yet clear-cut, which means that further refinements to the warning area are very likely.

Covers: Darlington, Durham, Gateshead, Northumberland, Redcar and Cleveland, Newcastle upon Tyne

The latest forecast from the met office has Darlo snow free until Saturday now - http://www.metoffice...Time=1363910400

it just about covers darlington i reckon we will miss out on the snow

[Boro Snow]

The Durham ensemble shows almost 9 days of very little in the way of rain fall (doesn't mean it won't snow thought)

Easter Saturday has temperatures that resemble spring! sadly rain looks likely at this stage so a mild wet Easter at this very early stage

Getting warmer by Easter Sunday nothing special but after this cold boy would that feel nice out of any rain!

lol but u know thats so not gunna happen we will still be in a cold flow,

[Hagler]

The Durham ensemble shows almost 9 days of very little in the way of rain fall (doesn't mean it won't snow thought)

Easter Saturday has temperatures that resemble spring! sadly rain looks likely at this stage so a mild wet Easter at this very early stage

Getting warmer by Easter Sunday nothing special but after this cold boy would that feel nice out of any rain!

We don't even know whats happening this Friday never mind Easter Saturday.

[Summer Sun]

We don't even know whats happening this Friday never mind Easter Saturday.

Correct but its about trends and the ensembles back up a warm up around this time, snow is always hard to pin point who will get it and who won't.

When your after mild weather you look for straws to clutch lol

GFS could well be bringing in the milder air a bit too quickly this is how the ECM ensemble shows it for the same time

Compared to GFS

Edited March 20, 2013 by Gavin.

[seabreeze86]

Dew point has droped like a stone in the past couple of hours here was reading at 1.1 now at -0.8 colder air making its presence felt.

[Snowmaggedon]

Can I just ask from an imby perspective, am I not within the warning zone because the front is not expected to reach this far East or because the temperatures are not supportive of snow?

[seabreeze86]

Can I just ask from an imby perspective, am I not within the warning zone because the front is not expected to reach this far East or because the temperatures are not supportive of snow?

Its because the Met Office are aware of the famous teeside snow sheild.

[Boro Snow]

Dew point has droped like a stone in the past couple of hours here was reading at 1.1 now at -0.8 colder air making its presence felt.

same here the temp and dp at 12pm were 4c and 0 its now 3 degrees and -1

and those showers are certainly pepping up in the north sea, northumberland could get another dumping

Edited March 20, 2013 by Boro Snow

[seabreeze86]

Looking at the latest satalite picture on sat24 website the sheet of low cloud is brakeing up and allowing showers to form in the north sea. As Boro Snow says anywhere down the east coast could get a dusting or perhaps more than that this evening.