Far North of England Regional Discussion 09/03/13 21z---->

[Snowmaggedon]

12z has now updated for the end of the week here is a run through for the snow

Of course this shouldn't be taken for Gospel its one run from one model but GFS shows no marginal scenario

Even for coastal areas? Btw I would like to thank you Gavin for your simple and informative posts both on the Mod Thread and Regional thread, really easy to understand and very helpful for those of us less knowledgeable

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think it will be marginal near the coast if the front gets overhead- falling & lying snow inland but wet sleety stuff near the coast is the most likely scenario- it was generally that way in these frontal situations when I lived near the Tyne and Wear coast (including 21st March 2001).

[NickR]

12Z has us missing out on most of it - a midlands event really.

12z has now updated for the end of the week here is a run through for the snow

Of course this shouldn't be taken for Gospel its one run from one model but GFS shows no marginal scenario

It also doesn't show much of anything for the NE. Those light colours are basically nothing. It's far better to look the hi-res ppn charts showing strength of ppn - those ppn type charts give a very false impression.

[Alex95]

Rather wet in Durham for the past two days.

[NickR]

We're not getting any snow this weekend methinks - it'll all be further south.

[Summer Sun]

Even for coastal areas? Btw I would like to thank you Gavin for your simple and informative posts both on the Mod Thread and Regional thread, really easy to understand and very helpful for those of us less knowledgeable

Thanks for the comments, looks like those charts aren't that reliable with the lighter pinks more a less nothing on or near the coast looks marginal

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

I asked Ian Fergusson how it was looking for the NE in the MOD thread got this reply

The last I saw it was looking pretty grim potentially, with blizzards over uplands. I haven't checked the latest GM to see how the story looks from the 12z run there.

[NickR]

Yes but it's precisely the latest GM that shows a universal shift away from us.

[Summer Sun]

Yes but it's precisely the latest GM that shows a universal shift away from us.

Sorry to sound dumb but what does GM stand for some of these terms are still new to me lol

[Snowstorm1]

Reckon most places will see a light covering tonight

[seabreeze86]

Jesus crist the 12z from the Ecm is bitter.

That chart is for the 26th of march unbelieveable. The March CET will be the lowest for along time if the ECM is right

[Summer Sun]

If the GFS Durham ensemble is right we would see around 3mm of precipitation on Friday and Saturday the dry period next week is associated with a ridge of high pressure edging down from the north

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gavin.

[Freezing-Point]

Reckon most places will see a light covering tonight

most places above 500ft. The air feed is not cold enough. current temp here 3.4c

[Summer Sun]

4.1c in Darlo too warm for snow at the moment

[Boro Snow]

most places above 500ft. The air feed is not cold enough. current temp here 3.4c

yeah i agree its 3.3c here and the dp is 0.5 no snow tonight unless something drasticly changes

just walked home from work and it doesnt feel cold at all to be honest

[Summer Sun]

yeah i agree its 3.3c here and the dp is 0.5 no snow tonight unless something drasticly changes

just walked home from work and it doesnt feel cold at all to be honest

Yeah it hasn't felt cold all day I think the lighter wind has helped as well

[Boro Snow]

Yeah it hasn't felt cold all day I think the lighter wind has helped as well

just got in and checked the ecm wow the winter is just gunna go on and on lol,

[Summer Sun]

just got in and checked the ecm wow the winter is just gunna go on and on lol,

Yeah, but ECM has had a habit of this during winter it then waters it down, we need to wait for the ensembles first to see if its a cold outlier or not

[paul tall]

just got in and checked the ecm wow the winter is just gunna go on and on lol,

It's not even funny.

[NickR]

just got in and checked the ecm wow the winter is just gunna go on and on lol,

Aye... I'm beginning to get hacked off now. I'm MORE than ready to start getting the garden into shape and getting some seeds sown. This is interminable. The sooner it warms up the better.

I'm with you paul tall. It's past a joke now.

[Boro Snow]

Yeah, but ECM has had a habit of this during winter it then waters it down, we need to wait for the ensembles first to see if its a cold outlier or not

it has yes but they hasnt been blocking in place like they is at the mo so surely it has a better chance

[Boro Snow]

Aye... I'm beginning to get hacked off now. I'm MORE than ready to start getting the garden into shape and getting some seeds sown. This is interminable. The sooner it warms up the better.

I'm with you paul tall. It's past a joke now.

i do agree with the gardening part because mine need sorting but 1 more snow event wont hurt anybody lol Edited March 19, 2013 by Boro Snow

[seabreeze86]

Dew points should start to drop away from about 3 in the morning according the the NAE so anything that falls before then will be rain at low levels, but i would think by dawn the snow level will start to become lower and lower.

[Snowmaggedon]

Ah well maybe we'll get out fair share of snow next week, it could be game over for us with regards to this weekend by the end of tomorrow unless we see an almighty shift back in our favour.

[Summer Sun]

it has yes but they hasnt been blocking in place like they is at the mo so surely it has a better chance

Sorry guys got confused new to these ensembles short term support is there long term t192 for us (next Wednesday onwards) its a cold outlier turning less cold just before and lasting through Easter is looking possible tonight http://forum.netweat...60#entry2647678

Edited March 19, 2013 by Gavin.