scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 10/03/13 09z ------>

[Buriedundersnow]

heres the 850 temps for same time from the UKMO 12z looks like it could be snowy

[LomondSnowstorm]

heres the 850 temps for same time from the UKMO 12z looks like it could be snowy

ECM has the -8C dragged fully across Scotland by 6am Tuesday:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

[LomondSnowstorm]

I almost choked on my tea when I saw the latest yr.no long range for Edinburgh based on the ECM:

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Edinburgh/long.html

Monday 6pm-the following Tuesday 12pm sees the temperature not getting above 2C for the entirety of the period. Temperatures from a week tonight through to a week on Tuesday do not get above 0C with circa 15-20cm snow falling in that time, 5-7cm before then.

If the ECM 12Z verifies, this will be the coldest March since 1947, and barring a sudden warm up the coldest March in history.

[Buriedundersnow]

I almost choked on my tea when I saw the latest yr.no long range for Edinburgh based on the ECM:

http://www.yr.no/pla...burgh/long.html

Monday 6pm-the following Tuesday 12pm sees the temperature not getting above 2C for the entirety of the period. Temperatures from a week tonight through to a week on Tuesday do not get above 0C with circa 15-20cm snow falling in that time, 5-7cm before then.

If the ECM 12Z verifies, this will be the coldest March since 1947, and barring a sudden warm up the coldest March in history.

even if the ECM doesnt verify its still going to be a cold period with all models singing from the cold and snow song sheet

[Sunny Leith]

Getting on for late March, these are insane values. I'd be surprised to see things quite as cold as that but think most of us are feeling that the forecast synoptics *will* play out in general terms. It's now just a question of the specifics, depth of cold, local factors etc ...

By the way, was out leafleting in Leith with some EUSNA mates of yours this morning. Must have slipped your mind LS, you could at least have issued a local forecast :-0

I almost choked on my tea when I saw the latest yr.no long range for Edinburgh based on the ECM:

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/Scotland/Edinburgh/long.html

Monday 6pm-the following Tuesday 12pm sees the temperature not getting above 2C for the entirety of the period. Temperatures from a week tonight through to a week on Tuesday do not get above 0C with circa 15-20cm snow falling in that time, 5-7cm before then.

If the ECM 12Z verifies, this will be the coldest March since 1947, and barring a sudden warm up the coldest March in history.

[Snowplough33]

Getting on for late March, these are insane values. I'd be surprised to see things quite as cold as that but think most of us are feeling that the forecast synoptics *will* play out in general terms. It's now just a question of the specifics, depth of cold, local factors etc ...

By the way, was out leafleting in Leith with some EUSNA mates of yours this morning. Must have slipped your mind LS, you could at least have issued a local forecast :-0

Yeh it's looking very interesting. Love that long term forecast LS dug out.

I'm sure for most away from the coast will see the goods with the predicted set up but us coasters need nearer -10 uppers with that east wind. Still, that possibility appears to be on the table.

[LomondSnowstorm]

even if the ECM doesnt verify its still going to be a cold period with all models singing from the cold and snow song sheet

Yes, that comment is not to say that if the GFS verifies it won't be the coldest March since 1947. This is the final frame of March:

Maxima potentially only 2-5C still.

[Buriedundersnow]

now we enter the crap period so close to what is going to happen but far enough away for it to feel like 3 weeks

[Snowplough33]

now we enter the crap period so close to what is going to happen but far enough away for it to feel like 3 weeks

Don't know much about it, but there is a CFS chart from today posted in the MT showing -8 uppers on the 23rd April. That's ridiculous ( not to mention beyond any realms of FI).

[Buriedundersnow]

Don't know much about it, but there is a CFS chart from today posted in the MT showing -8 uppers on the 23rd April. That's ridiculous ( not to mention beyond any realms of FI).

yeah the CFS has us cold till the 25th april with a very brief warm up at the start of april only lasts 2 days or something

[Guest]

now we enter the crap period so close to what is going to happen but far enough away for it to feel like 3 weeks

Aye, it's reaching that "when and how will it all go wrong" phase, isn't it? Having said that there is still snow falling in some areas of the NW and potentially more on the way heading north in England for the SE of Scotland into tomorrow morning, hopefully :lol:

I was going to post up the GFS/ECM 8 to 10 day charts but they mustn't update them over the weekend, it's still showing an old chart on the link I've got.

[Buriedundersnow]

GFS 18z has the -8 uppers coming in on monday evening

[Buriedundersnow]

Aye, it's reaching that "when and how will it all go wrong" phase, isn't it? Having said that there is still snow falling in some areas of the NW and potentially more on the way heading north in England for the SE of Scotland into tomorrow morning, hopefully

I was going to post up the GFS/ECM 8 to 10 day charts but they mustn't update them over the weekend, it's still showing an old chart on the link I've got.

this what your looking for

[Guest]

GFS 18z has the -8 uppers coming in on monday evening

If you look at the GFS on NW Extra there's a small wedge of warmer air moving in with those uppers...dewpoints aren't pretty in the south.

[Buriedundersnow]

or this one i dont know which is the recent one

If you look at the GFS on NW Extra there's a small wedge of warmer air moving in with those uppers...dewpoints aren't pretty in the south.

u need to pay for NW EXTRA dont u

[Guest]

this what your looking for

That's the one I've got, it's just me being a muppet as I looked at the date wrong. Thought the 13 referred to the date, but it's the year. It was a long day at work

[Guest]

u need to pay for NW EXTRA dont u

Aye but it can be worth it at times.

[Buriedundersnow]

Aye but it can be worth it at times.

dont think i've any chance of signing up for it for a while need to find a job first and thats proving to be a complete nightmare

[Guest]

dont think i've any chance of signing up for it for a while need to find a job first and thats proving to be a complete nightmare

That's pish for you, I don't like my job at times but I'm grateful to have it.

[Buriedundersnow]

is it just me or has the pub run watered things down a bit

[Buriedundersnow]

the NASA HIGH RES looks solid from monday afternoon through to tuesday afternoon

[Buriedundersnow]

nice wee finish from the NASA 12z decent cold pool out to our east

[LomondSnowstorm]

If you look at the GFS on NW Extra there's a small wedge of warmer air moving in with those uppers...dewpoints aren't pretty in the south.

I think it's a classic case of the GFS overdoing a warm sector. Typically the NAE very slightly underestimates uppers but the GFS, even up to a very short range, overestimates them and likes to create warm sectors and shortwaves where in fact there are none.

NAE currently has no such issue with the uppers and as such everything Monday afternoon on is snow:

Ultimately the NAE is likely to be slightly optimistic on the cold with the GFS very much pessimistic and that probably means a story of sleet turning to snow as the evening progresses on Monday with significant snow likely for most by Tuesday morning.

[Buriedundersnow]

watch this from 17:50 mins

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7k7sGWKDhc0

[LomondSnowstorm]

Getting on for late March, these are insane values. I'd be surprised to see things quite as cold as that but think most of us are feeling that the forecast synoptics *will* play out in general terms. It's now just a question of the specifics, depth of cold, local factors etc ...

By the way, was out leafleting in Leith with some EUSNA mates of yours this morning. Must have slipped your mind LS, you could at least have issued a local forecast :-0

Apologies, I'll be along for the next one, snow dependent of course. As for the forecast, I think I did take my eye off the ball with that one, though the modelling of it was very mixed and the NMM suggested nothing at all for the entire day, a rare miss for it.

Edited March 16, 2013 by LomondSnowstorm