scotland Scotland Regional Discussion 10/03/13 09z ------>

[Buriedundersnow]

I think it's a classic case of the GFS overdoing a warm sector. Typically the NAE very slightly underestimates uppers but the GFS, even up to a very short range, overestimates them and likes to create warm sectors and shortwaves where in fact there are none.

NAE currently has no such issue with the uppers and as such everything Monday afternoon on is snow:

Ultimately the NAE is likely to be slightly optimistic on the cold with the GFS very much pessimistic and that probably means a story of sleet turning to snow as the evening progresses on Monday with significant snow likely for most by Tuesday morning.

that NAE snow chart looks mega and could be the start of the best snow of winter/spring

[Sunny Leith]

No worries LS, just ribbing you... ;-) It was a real bonus these guys turning out today. Roll on spring and better days for campaigning but bloody hell these March synpotics are for ongoing cold. Seen plenty Northerly or North Westerly spells of March cold, but not sure I can recall too many with such an extended easterly bias. Going to be an interesting week or two.

Apologies, I'll be along for the next one, snow dependent of course. As for the forecast, I think I did take my eye off the ball with that one, though the modelling of it was very mixed and the NMM suggested nothing at all for the entire day, a rare miss for it.

[LomondSnowstorm]

that NAE snow chart looks mega and could be the start of the best snow of winter/spring

No doubt about it, if the evening starts like that there will be multiple inches of snow by morning right across eastern and central Scotland, this feature will see to that:

Feeding into the west of Scotland by Tuesday midday, showers in behind:

[Stormeh]

Charts look good, I better get some snow or I will not be a happy chappy

[Sunny Leith]

Didn't think we'd see a repeat of anything like the cold and snow of early last week but that chart is not so far off the mark. OK the sun is another week stronger at the surface but in all other respects its now possible that we could see something close to a repeat.

that NAE snow chart looks mega and could be the start of the best snow of winter/spring

[Buriedundersnow]

Charts look good, I better get some snow or I will not be a happy chappy

u should see some

[applemint]

I know I have been a bit of a grumpy old farmer

Interesting article in today's (Sunday) paper:

Britain's farming crisis: 'People don't realise how tough everything is' Crippling costs, bad weather and disease have hit the countryside hard – and left the future of British food in jeopardy, say the farmers fighting for survival:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/16/britain-farming-crisis-how-tough

As well as this one which even makes the front page: http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2013/mar/16/uk-farmers-face-disaster

[Buriedundersnow]

Didn't think we'd see a repeat of anything like the cold and snow of early last week but that chart is not so far off the mark. OK the sun is another week stronger at the surface but in all other respects its now possible that we could see something close to a repeat.

hopefully we will get it deep enough it wont all melt or showers will keep it topped up

[LomondSnowstorm]

No worries LS, just ribbing you... ;-) It was a real bonus these guys turning out today. Roll on spring and better days for campaigning but bloody hell these March synpotics are for ongoing cold. Seen plenty Northerly or North Westerly spells of March cold, but not sure I can recall too many with such an extended easterly bias. Going to be an interesting week or two.

Yeah, we've decided that we should endeavour to turn out in some form every weekend where possible, was at a demo on Thursday morning for Phillip Hammond's speech but he changed venues at the last minute so we were left on a wild goose chase for half an hour before giving up. Definitely going to be out loads in the summer campaigning where possible with both the Fife and Edinburgh groups, in fact I'm piping at the Yes Cupar launch in May.

The oddity for me is not the easterlies in themselves but the fact that they're still snowy rather than cool and haar dominated. I can remember a few of the latter a few springs ago and just took it as a given that cold sourced easterlies 'end' in February when the continent starts to warm up but this March and last April have shown this to be untrue. It could be just a statistical fluke but I believe it must be linked to the southward tracking of the jet since 2007 and the very much increased prevalence of northerly blocking, whereby the temperate latitudes have borne the brunt of the cold and seem to continually eek out what remains of the vortex right into April and May.

I think the reason for the easterly tendency is that easterlies or northeasterlies are perhaps a 'purer' reflection of a southerly tracking jet than a northerly. Northerlies or northwesterlies require some degree of low heights to the north or northeast and with the core of the heights this winter due north this simply hasn't been feasible. '47 and this winter are synoptic cousins in many ways, including both the global impact they had at mid latitudes (I believe '47 had a much vaunted US blizzard associated with it) and the prevalence of cold southeasterly or easterlies.

[Buriedundersnow]

i wonder what will fall tonight rain or snow from a nice wee bit of ppn moving up from england

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/

[Buriedundersnow]

they are reporting snow to elevation in the north west thread so snow potential moving north

[LomondSnowstorm]

they are reporting snow to elevation in the north west thread so snow potential moving north

Could well be, these events seem to be popping out of nowhere:

Marginal though, like today's it is dependent on intensity:

Temperatures look ok to start with though:

[Buriedundersnow]

just for note this is the snow accumulation chart for 3am

Could well be, these events seem to be popping out of nowhere:

Marginal though, like today's it is dependent on intensity:

Temperatures look ok to start with though:

thought u had went to bed lol

yeah looks like there could be a bit fall doubt i will see much at my elevation but maybe a covering for others like yourself

[Sunny Leith]

Aye point taken, they do tend towards haar by spring but think you're right on the rationale for their current coldness. Just saw a BBC News 24 forecast earlier that was hinting at *next weekends* snow chances, not often they speculate that far head, but surely also indicative of relative confidence that the current pattern is going to play out largely as we expect it to over the next week.

Yeah, we've decided that we should endeavour to turn out in some form every weekend where possible, was at a demo on Thursday morning for Phillip Hammond's speech but he changed venues at the last minute so we were left on a wild goose chase for half an hour before giving up. Definitely going to be out loads in the summer campaigning where possible with both the Fife and Edinburgh groups, in fact I'm piping at the Yes Cupar launch in May.

The oddity for me is not the easterlies in themselves but the fact that they're still snowy rather than cool and haar dominated. I can remember a few of the latter a few springs ago and just took it as a given that cold sourced easterlies 'end' in February when the continent starts to warm up but this March and last April have shown this to be untrue. It could be just a statistical fluke but I believe it must be linked to the southward tracking of the jet since 2007 and the very much increased prevalence of northerly blocking, whereby the temperate latitudes have borne the brunt of the cold and seem to continually eek out what remains of the vortex right into April and May.

I think the reason for the easterly tendency is that easterlies or northeasterlies are perhaps a 'purer' reflection of a southerly tracking jet than a northerly. Northerlies or northwesterlies require some degree of low heights to the north or northeast and with the core of the heights this winter due north this simply hasn't been feasible. '47 and this winter are synoptic cousins in many ways, including both the global impact they had at mid latitudes (I believe '47 had a much vaunted US blizzard associated with it) and the prevalence of cold southeasterly or easterlies.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Aye point taken, they do tend towards haar by spring but think you're right on the rationale for their current coldness. Just saw a BBC News 24 forecast earlier that was hinting at *next weekends* snow chances, not often they speculate that far head, but surely also indicative of relative confidence that the current pattern is going to play out largely as we expect it to over the next week.

I think either way it looks snowy here, whether it takes the GFS route of bringing in the trough and having the frontal battleground over us or whether the trough just disrupts to the west and we end up in a bitter easterly.

Interesting how similar the current pattern is to pre-Christmas '09, snow events popping up out of nowhere and coming at us from all directions once again.

[Buriedundersnow]

I think either way it looks snowy here, whether it takes the GFS route of bringing in the trough and having the frontal battleground over us or whether the trough just disrupts to the west and we end up in a bitter easterly.

Interesting how similar the current pattern is to pre-Christmas '09, snow events popping up out of nowhere and coming at us from all directions once again.

its such ashame we didnt have this a while back it would have been epic but never the less its been a cracking winter even if we havent had a prolonged cold spell we have had snow falling at periods since december and hopefully going on to next month and this is just the start we are going to see more mad winters and plenty harsh ones.

i picked up on what u said about reglaciation earlier and i think something like that could be on the cards i'm not saying full on ice age but the world has to start cooling itself and taking water back from the oceans to the land and i believe the planet as a living thing knows when to take a step back and this could be it

i know sounds a bit crazy lol

Edited March 17, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Sunny Leith]

Aye, its very much like that particular period. I don't recall us being under seriously cold uppers for all of that time, but we were certainly trapped under decent cold depths with a variety of synoptic evolutions. There was a period then - and in the subsequent winter - when I'd more or less convinced myself that "it just wanted to snow". Daft thing to say, but in essence that's just how it felt.

I think either way it looks snowy here, whether it takes the GFS route of bringing in the trough and having the frontal battleground over us or whether the trough just disrupts to the west and we end up in a bitter easterly.

Interesting how similar the current pattern is to pre-Christmas '09, snow events popping up out of nowhere and coming at us from all directions once again.

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Light snaw here.

Incoming?

-0.3 C / -1.3 C

Birthday party here (not mine). Beers consumed. Nuff said.

Snaw would be a nice end tae the night.

Edited March 17, 2013 by scottish skier

[Buriedundersnow]

Light snaw here.

Incoming?

-0.3 C / -1.3 C

great to hear but your at elevation i want to hear reports near sea level lol

[LomondSnowstorm]

its such ashame we didnt have this a while back it would have been epic but never the less its been a cracking winter even if we havent had a prolonged cold spell we have had snow falling at periods since december and hopefully going on to next month and this is just the start we are going to see more mad winters and plenty harsh ones.

i picked up on what u said about reglaciation earlier and i think something like that could be on the cards i'm not saying full on ice age but the world has to start cooling itself and taking water back from the oceans to the land and i believe the planet as a living thing knows when to take a step back and this could be it

i know sounds a bit crazy lol

I agree, though I believe even a localised reglaciation would take some time and would take an awful lot to spread to the Cairngorms, given the lack of recent glaciers. Still, not impossible to envisage a halt to the ablation and some expansion of the glaciers in northwest Europe in the next 20 years if current patterns remain, because of course these synoptic changes have an impact in summer as well as winter.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Aye, its very much like that particular period. I don't recall us being under seriously cold uppers for all of that time, but we were certainly trapped under decent cold depths with a variety of synoptic evolutions. There was a period then - and in the subsequent winter - when I'd more or less convinced myself that "it just wanted to snow". Daft thing to say, but in essence that's just how it felt.

It was really driven by the surface cold that established from that first snowfall, with the time of year helping us out as well. Once the cold gets set up it can only really be removed by either very mild and humid airmasses or the maritime sourced easterly (with no cold uppers) which eventually got us. During the height of the period the low heights allowed small features to form and bring in precipitation without requiring any external sourcing of air, so the cold air that was locked in at the surface just built up and any trough that formed had no effect on the airmass. Much like what usually occurs in the Tropics or the Arctic.

[Buriedundersnow]

I agree, though I believe even a localised reglaciation would take some time and would take an awful lot to spread to the Cairngorms, given the lack of recent glaciers. Still, not impossible to envisage a halt to the ablation and some expansion of the glaciers in northwest Europe in the next 20 years if current patterns remain, because of course these synoptic changes have an impact in summer as well as winter.

yeah thats why i was bold the other day and said i dont think we will see a cracking summer i may be wrong but i really think this whole northern blocking caper isnt just a winter thing and the odd summer i think something drastic has changed and nearly all summers in the near future will see alot of northern blocking aswell

possibly something like the polar vortex never getting properly established and being permenantly dirsupted or split

Edited March 17, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Sunny Leith]

In a similar vein, did you see the Piers Corbyn piece from 2 days ago "The mini-ice age is upon us" http://bit.ly/YwPTBH

I don't take him too seriously to be honest ... but a little bit of me thinks he just might be onto something.

yeah thats why i was bold the other day and said i dont think we will see a cracking summer i may be wrong but i really think this whole northern blocking caper isnt just a winter thing and the odd summer i think something drastic has changed and nearly all summers in the near future will see alot of northern blocking aswell

[Buriedundersnow]

this new NASA model that no long rolled out i really think is a mosel we should keep an eye on and why i did that post in the last cold spell looking at how it performed cos i watch a whole load of crap on discovery and they channels about weather and volcanoes and that stuff and i am sure i saw a program about nasa and how with the kind of shut down of the space program they have been going through lately and with the way the climate has changed that nasa had challenged thereselves to bring us an accurate 5 day weather forescast to help in dealing with extremes like snow or hurricanes or tornadoes and u know what they are like when they put there minds to things so i wouldnt bet against in a few years time maybe even next winter we will all be glued to nothing but that model and the others will just be trend pickers.

[Buriedundersnow]

In a similar vein, did you see the Piers Corbyn piece from 2 days ago "The mini-ice age is upon us" http://bit.ly/YwPTBH

I don't take him too seriously to be honest ... but a little bit of me thinks he just might be onto something.

i think just like we are living bodies and interact with each other during our daily lives planets and stuff are the same even though we have a brain and they dont everything interacts with stuff around it and develop pertnerships over time and who is to say our solar system isnt the same with the planets having learnt to live and breath in a sense with each other as it cant be coinsidence that we are going through a stage where the planet needs to cool and we are nowhere near an ice age state in our orbit or that and the sun has decided to start to shut itself down as maybe a helping hand.