South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/03/13 13z---->

[Joe Levy]

I do like the look of that mass of convective precipitation over the west midlands that is growing and heading directly towards the South-West

[Bumpkin]

Can you wait until April?

I can try but after being teased last Tuesday with a beautiful sunny day with temps about 15c it is difficult. A week ago I went out on my bike in a t shirt, today I went out with the dogs looking like Michelin man! I wouldn't mind it so much if we didn't have that biting wind, its too painful. My husband grows a beard to protect his face in preparation for cold spells for working on the farm, as much as I try I just can't get mine to grow!

[AWD]

My personal opinion is that next week could be our first proper "spring convective" spell of weather.

I think any further significant or indeed semi-significant snowfall will now be reserved from the Midlands northwards with perhaps the highest ground down our way getting a covering if the cold air advects perfectly.

I think a common phrase that could be heard next week is "Wintery showers". When viewing the output for next week, look at what time PPN will fall, the intensity of the PPN and the temperature differential the models show between sunny periods and cloudy periods. Whilst the upper air temps obviously need to be cold, at this time of year other factors such as nocturnal cooling, evaporative cooling and intensity driven PPN can also come into play.

I can see next week being a typical spring convective spell with a trough and associated low thickness values over the UK. Sunny spells and heavy showers could be the form horse, with temperature under the sunshine pretty pleasent and feeling warm, but when shower cells come along, these temperatures will drop sharply and we could see anything from rain, sleet, snow, hail, thunder, lightning etc.

Could be a very interesting period of weather next week for convective fans, all dependant on exactly where the trough sets up shop of course.

As for the rest of this week. We could see further showers of rain, sleet and snow tomorrow as a trough peps up PPN from the north and heads south over the region. Then turning less cold at the end of the week and into the weekend, with the return of spells of heavy rain (currently see nothing more than rain for our region on Saturday, maybe something a little wintry on Sunday but a long way off yet).

Interesting weather personally I think for the foreseeable, although the end of this week doesn't look too special with cold rain likely for our region.

Convective fans get ready, think we could have some interest next week.

Edited March 12, 2013 by AWD

[snowmadchrisuk]

I do like the look of that mass of convective precipitation over the west midlands that is growing and heading directly towards the South-West

Yes that has shown on the Models , it is not suppose to reach most of us , but will be interesting to see how far it get's ....

Edited March 12, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[Nights King]

Yes that has shown on the Models , it is not suppose to most of us , but will be interesting to see how far it get's ....

looks to be fizzling out abit as it gets closer but time will tell

[snowmadchrisuk]

looks to be fizzling out abit as it gets closer but time will tell

Yeah there's a masssive Snow shield just East of Birmingham .. Showers struggle to get over the Derbyshire Hills. Sun might add some intensity at this time of day though ...

[jethro]

From what I can gather, it is to be a week of well scattered showers and sunnier intervals with the winds eventually backing towards the North later today and for a couple of days thereafter. Most showers clinging to the immediate coastline. However, by the weekend, things are looking much wetter with heavy prolonged cold rain on Saturday, perhaps with a brief period of leading edge snowfall.

I can hardly contain my joy.....

[Joe Levy]

Yeah there's a masssive Snow shield just East of Birmingham .. Showers struggle to get over the Derbyshire Hills. Sun might add some intensity at this time of day though ...

It seems to be doing a pretty good job of progressing south-westward - it's already reached Worcestershire and is approaching the Severn Valley. Perhaps, as you say, the sun will be on our side this time.

[Mapantz]

Gorgeous out there today!

[snowmadchrisuk]

The Northern Band of the Precipitation has gone into Wales , Not quite sure weather the Southern Section will hit the Bristol Channel or not , Interesting to watch ...

[gottolovethisweather]

I can try but after being teased last Tuesday with a beautiful sunny day with temps about 15c it is difficult. A week ago I went out on my bike in a t shirt, today I went out with the dogs looking like Michelin man! I wouldn't mind it so much if we didn't have that biting wind, its too painful. My husband grows a beard to protect his face in preparation for cold spells for working on the farm, as much as I try I just can't get mine to grow!

Probably best that you don't grow a beard, he will be calling you Aunt Sally or Mrs Worzel Gummidge. The biting Easterly will be gone soon. Most probably being replaced by a less biting Northerly or Westerly as time goes on. If you can get out of the wind, I'm sure things won't feel as bad or soon won't be as they currently are.

Edited March 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[monkeyuk]

Nothing here in Gloucester from the band heading South West?

[SunnySouthCoast]

Had light snow still early this morning but sunshine since mid morning has melted the remains of our snow dusting we had. Temperature is 5.5C dew point still low at -4.0C after an overnight minimum of -1C

No disrespect to our central southern neighbours but south west weather can be quite different at times, next winter i'd like to see a south west regional thread back please.

And Bristol's weather can be completely different to that in Cornwall! Should it be split further into a south west & a west thread, or how about a county by county thread? This snow we have had in central southern parts is just as rare here as if it were to have happened in the far south west! And besides most of us only got a dusting, the heaviest snow has been in Sussex & the Channel Islands anyway, it's not like we always get loads of snow lol

[gottolovethisweather]

I can hardly contain my joy.....

Please remember I don't make the weather. When there is a glimmer of Spring warmth looking like returning, I'm sure you will get to hear about it. Mother Nature is being a bit of a bi - itch lately but then mankind doesn't exactly help matters I guess. We are in a typically transitional period now and I quite like the variety and wish for some proper warmth as much as I do, a bit of wintry action, perfect weather for me!

Gorgeous out there today!

Wrapped up and out of the wind, yes.

Edited March 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Dunlop Dave]

Back home after another day sledging. Went down some tight lanes and was met by a wall of snow. Turned out it was an abandoned van and was covered !! The drift reached 8ft in places !! So many tress down too. Thaw has begun but schools closed again tomorrow and my work closed before my shift began !!

[AWD]

Latest NAE showing a showery, wintry mix coming down from the north tomorrow;

[SunnySouthCoast]

Yep the weather on BBC South Today at lunchtime showed a 'wintry mix' tomorrow, with snow showeres reserved for higher ground.

[Nights King]

some half decent looking showers moving into bristol area...

[gottolovethisweather]

A few flurries on the breeze about 15 minutes ago and that now makes it three consecutive days of snowfall for Newbury so quite impressive with maybe more to come. A maximum of 4.4c today which is well below the average expected March maximum, somewhere scraping the low double-digits.

Edited March 12, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

some half decent looking showers moving into bristol area...

Nothing here currently aside from sunshine.

[Frosty_wsm]

some half decent looking showers moving into bristol area...

Yes we have another snow shower moving in from the north east.

[offerman]

We might be lucky and catch one this time.

[Nights King]

Breaking up just before they reach me Thought they might pep up as they hit the mendips

[Uncle Gargy]

Not much coming out of those showers. Just looks pretty.

[Iggy912]

Well, there are flakes falling from the sky here in Henley... very overcast now but I was wearing sun glasses earlier! Bitterly cold wind swirling the falkes around so they're not really settling. Temperature 2.5c. Always very excited to see the snow...

Kinda glad it's gonna warm up a little tomorrow... out surveying trees all day again!

Edited March 12, 2013 by Iggy912