Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[Lincslad]

The cold air in place over the UK will retreat over the coming weeks with solar warming. This happens most years in central Iceland and Scandinavia even with a north flow mid spring.

[Man With Beard]

GFS 06Z shows an ideal set-up for snow in Cornwall and Devon:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/precipitations/108h.htm

Still very much a threat.

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013032506/gfs-0-162.png?6

06z - not my favourite run- has a strong backtrack to cold this morning- no mild for Easter

S

[Tim Bland]

What is suprising me atm is how the metoffice are confident of widespread snow next weekend. They are confident enough to mention it on most forecasts when they only have to go to days 2/3. Local radio forecaster from the metoffice also saying snow for central parts at the weekend. From what I can see from the models it is unlikely that the atlantic will get past the far SW before retreating again.

Time is running out for snow lovers to have one last hoorah so Im personlay hoping it reaches this far so we can have a white easter, then ill be on Gavins team searching for spring !

[mushymanrob]

.... and watch the gfs now become the model of choice as its 06z prolongs the cold longer then the ecm ! lol.

[snowmadchrisuk]

What is suprising me atm is how the metoffice are confident of widespread snow next weekend. They are confident enough to mention it on most forecasts when they only have to go to days 2/3. Local radio forecaster from the metoffice also saying snow for central parts at the weekend. From what I can see from the models it is unlikely that the atlantic will get past the far SW before retreating again.

Time is running out for snow lovers to have one last hoorah so Im personlay hoping it reaches this far so we can have a white easter, then ill be on Gavins team searching for spring !

Even more shocking is a SW even inc Cornwall is likely to see a Snow event , and for Easter weekend that is almost unheard of down here.

[chris55]

What is suprising me atm is how the metoffice are confident of widespread snow next weekend. They are confident enough to mention it on most forecasts when they only have to go to days 2/3. Local radio forecaster from the metoffice also saying snow for central parts at the weekend. From what I can see from the models it is unlikely that the atlantic will get past the far SW before retreating again.

Time is running out for snow lovers to have one last hoorah so Im personlay hoping it reaches this far so we can have a white easter, then ill be on Gavins team searching for spring !

Yes, the weekend Atlantic Low is still very much undecided, there is potential for the shortwave to develop and produce some snowfall for southern Britain, but equally it could just slip south with the ridge being more dominant. Trends over the last 24 hours has lessened it's influence but at day 5 there is plenty of time for changes. Personally with all this cold around it would be a shame if we don't see some snow around in the south.

GFS 6z just nudges the low into the far south west,

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Gavin don't look the Earliest of a warm up April 8 9 th at the moment with the wind chill here is bone chilling im glad on holiday i work out side!!

[Jupiters Winter]

One thing GFS and ECM both go for this morning is milder uppers as we go into April

Starts in the south first before spreading north

GFS for the same dates

Don't worry folks an April heatwave is coming - http://www.dailymail...ite-Easter.html

It is a win win situation for you.. The mild will have to come soon.

[mushymanrob]

the gfs yet again some sort of high pressure dominance into april, situated near or over us. actually this might not be too bad, it will be dry and if the sun gets through the cloud it wouldnt feel too bad . below average but at least not frozen.

[Hurricane Buckley]

I urge caution or though the charts show snow across the South watch it all dive South, I expect it maybe a non event or just a SW thing

[Purga]

Don't worry Gavin less than 90 days to go and then the days start getting shorter again!

06z cold all the way through to the end (10th April!) but looks not so snowy, however when there is cold about snow opportunities can always crop up very quickly!

Back to square one synoptically -- Groundhog day Easterly Monsoon.

[Man With Beard]

Even more shocking is a SW even inc Cornwall is likely to see a Snow event , and for Easter weekend that is almost unheard of down here.

Though many runs are showing some snow for the South West this weekend (and I think all NW coldies are hoping it will happen for the sake of the snow lovers down there), I think it is too early to use the word "likely" just yet - there does seem to be a trend to keep fronts further and further back - one thing seems certain, if the South West don't get it, no-one else will!

[Purga]

Even more shocking is a SW even inc Cornwall is likely to see a Snow event , and for Easter weekend that is almost unheard of down here.

Snow in the SW in march in the UK? It's enough to drive you mad - oh yes of course you are Chris!

[frosty ground]

The ensembles have been pretty consistent of late for a warm up that never seems to happen........

Now it will get warmer, the increased sunlight will take care of that but we could be looking at another season of below average temperatures. It will be one heck of a turnaround for spring to finish way above average.. as extremes go that will be fascinating to watch if it indeed happens. I wonder what the historical records show us for large swings in Spring from below to above average!

Edited March 25, 2013 by frosty ground

[MisfitDog3]

It did occur to me over the weekend that at least the last 3 weeks are going to put a permanent end to the.... 'winters over'..... 'you never get any decent snowfall in March' and 'game over'...type postings that seem to occur every year from about mid-Jan onwards......

Which is something to be cheerful about!! BTW, I suspect the Atlantic is gonna push in faster and further than the models are projecting for the end of the week.....

[Summer Sun]

Colder uppers remain in place longer on the 06z

compared to 00z

Gavin, i simply dont think spring will happen this year!

Only thing I'd say is the 06z run isn't the best remember how many times we were told to bin it in the winter?

[rory o gorman]

Purga- is either a troll or a strange taste in weather.

Firstly the gfs 06z is no good for snow most of the run is cloudy cold/cool with a rather strong biting east wind. If your excited by that then ok... but i don't know many that would , especially severe weather junkies and more so farmers, who would be very far behind in the growing season and costing them in feed for cattle ect that would normally be outdoors. As for proper snow in april a direct arctic flow with much colder air at 500 mb is needed, not a slight modified pool of eastern cold.How anyone can like this run is beyond me ...

[snowmadchrisuk]

Though many runs are showing some snow for the South West this weekend (and I think all NW coldies are hoping it will happen for the sake of the snow lovers down there), I think it is too early to use the word "likely" just yet - there does seem to be a trend to keep fronts further and further back - one thing seems certain, if the South West don't get it, no-one else will!

My thoughts at the moment refer back to last weekend , when many models corrected south and west and some showed the UK missing it altogether . although in reality it got well into the Midlands and even the East Midlands seen 10-15cm .. Half way house would see the SW pasted with Snow.

[SomeLikeItHot]

The ECM deterministic a warm run post 1st of April compared with its ensembles. The continuing cold paths showing slightly more support than the warm as we go into April. Still with a mean temp around 4 degrees for the first week of April, and few members breaking a 10 degree max, its either looking cold or cool, until well into April.

Edited March 25, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Captain Shortwave]

Purga- is either a troll or a strange taste in weather.

Firstly the gfs 06z is no good for snow most of the run is cloudy cold/cool with a rather strong biting east wind. If your excited by that then ok... but i don't know many that would , especially severe weather junkies and more so farmers, who would be very far behind in the growing season and costing them in feed for cattle ect that would normally be outdoors. As for proper snow in april a direct arctic flow with much colder air at 500 mb is needed, not a slight modified pool of eastern cold.How anyone can like this run is beyond me ...

I think we need to look and hope for a Scandi high here, at least it gives us something to work with either for more arctic blasts or the potential for a quick return to warmer drier weather. Last thing we want is low pressure making it over us as with the jet almost off the european maps (yeah it's that far south) low pressure you simply crawl over the top of us giving cool and wet weather, not good for many areas who have flooding issues.

Purga is no troll, just wants an ice age to happen.

Edited March 25, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Lincslad]

The Metoffice will be very cautious over the upcoming bank holiday, so any adverse weather will need to mentioned pretty early. Currently, any attacking system on friday will fail to push the block away and, possibly, clip Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, bit at this stage significant snow is unlikely away from Bodmin, Dartmoor etc... But this could change over coming days.

[fergieweather]

The Metoffice will be very cautious over the upcoming bank holiday, so any adverse weather will need to mentioned pretty early. Currently, any attacking system on friday will fail to push the block away and, possibly, clip Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, bit at this stage significant snow is unlikely away from Bodmin, Dartmoor etc... But this could change over coming days.

Exactly so. Yesterday's EC had fairly significant snow across SW moors and less (2cm) up to about Bristol. Currently, MOGREPS has a third of members still favouring a more northerly solution (up to S Midlands) but based on EPS, UKMO give s 20% probability of a disruptive snow event at this juncture.

[Purga]

Purga- is either a troll or a strange taste in weather.

Firstly the gfs 06z is no good for snow most of the run is cloudy cold/cool with a rather strong biting east wind. If your excited by that then ok... but i don't know many that would , especially severe weather junkies and more so farmers, who would be very far behind in the growing season and costing them in feed for cattle ect that would normally be outdoors. As for proper snow in april a direct arctic flow with much colder air at 500 mb is needed, not a slight modified pool of eastern cold.How anyone can like this run is beyond me ...

Not at all!

I just like cold wintry weather and primarily snow (which btw is rather difficult to get without it being cold) if you read my posts. Proper snow is so rare in the UK, with mostly non-descript and mild conditions predominating. Also I live in the south (Sussex coast) which is one of the least likely places for snow one could choose - LOL. Down here northerlies rarely deliver anything except cool sunny conditions if you're lucky. What can deliver, as has happened a couple of times this winter / spring, is a decent cold easterly undercut with a stalling front / channel low as ideal and sometimes convective showers getting through on a NEly. That is why I am excited by the current easterly type synoptic regime as it at least offers the opportunities for some snowy fun down here. Since it can be mild pretty much throughout most winters i am grateful for any chance of snow at any time of the year quite frankly.. Perhaps my taste is 'strange' but each to their own, I don't criticize mildies personally and accuse them of being 'trolls' just because I don't share their taste in weather type.

I've lived in a pretty extreme continental climate before (Saskatechewan Canada) where believe me it really does get cold for weeks / months on end and even I would crave some warmth, trouble was the breakup was always a messy muddy affair but summer when it came would be spectacular.

Apologies to mods et al, just felt the accusation needed commenting on.

Edited March 25, 2013 by Purga

[m1chaels]

Exactly so. Yesterday's EC had fairly significant snow across SW moors and less (2cm) up to about Bristol. Currently, MOGREPS has a third of members still favouring a more northerly solution (up to S Midlands) but based on EPS, UKMO give s 20% probability of a disruptive snow event at this juncture.

So does that mean that the other 80% 'chance' is of most of the country remaining under cold uppers with a cold easterly