Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...

[Thundery wintry showers]

Another point is that the models seem to be agreed on the easterly flow backing a little north of east as the week goes on, and falling heights associated with low pressure to the south. Thus, while at the moment we're in a very dry easterly flow and tomorrow also looks set to be dry, we may see a fair number of snow showers start to develop over eastern Scotland and NE England, especially if the ECMWF charts come off.

The GFS has been quite consistent in suggesting widespread, albeit light, showery activity affecting a large area of the British Isles by midweek:

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130324/12/72/ukprec.png

[Summer Sun]

Well a poor run from ECM pretty hard to find any positives and remarkably the northern blocking is shown to build again in FI!!

The only positive is the cold should moderate into April slightly and given the strength of the sunshine is would feel pleasant enough out of the wind.

Still this is FI and it could be an outlier ample time for a change but the rest of March is looking cold now and the hunt for a pattern change now goes into April.

There could be a positive in that when the pattern does finally shift it will put us in good stead for summer..............

In the mean time

Edited March 24, 2013 by Gavin.

[Snowman.]

Scary...

Look at that PV chunk going into the Atlantic.

[Snowman.]

Pretty much somes up the most of the week.

That's hours of sunlight.

[legritter]

Even gang ,im enjoying reading about the charts but ECM is still stuck on SAT 12 .could it be something to do with my browser or crap computer . everything seems rosy apart from that ,catch up later ,thanks .

[NickR]

A terrific run for the snow lovers living in areas which missed out this time around, namely Southern Counties of England around the T120 period and then later into SW England and S Wales

Heres the precip moving in to the SW around the 120 period:

Heres the furthest north it heads:

And the associated dew points to go with it (in Fahrenheit):

And then the next band that moves in at 192:

Of course these details are liable to change between now and then, but an impressive run

SK

Whilst being poor for those areas of the N that missed out (if you want snow, that is) - it wasn't just S counties that didn't get any proper snow.

Edited March 24, 2013 by NickR

[BARRY]

I think it is possible. The advantage we have currently is that Europe has not begun to warm up as it should be doing at this time of year.

Large swathes of Europe which should be free of snow-cover at this time of year are still buried in snow. For example, areas in Ukraine reached record snow levels earlier this week I believe.

As long as the snow cover remains intact, a very high percentage of incoming solar radiation will be reflected back into space, maintaining sub-zero temperatures and cold upper temperatures.

today the ukraine

Edited March 24, 2013 by BARRY

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Whilst being poor for those areas of the N that missed out (if you want snow, that is) - it wasn't just S counties that didn't get any proper snow.

yes we didnt get any proper snow either here on east coast

[Polar Maritime]

This really is special to see the sort of cold chart's that the models keep pumping out, especially for this time of year. The conditions here for late Spring are unprecedented for the last 3 day's, and far worse than many mid-Winters i have ever seen.

Edited March 24, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[lorenzo]

Found this one on Twitter..

GFS continues its crisis of confidence and takes it to new levels of confusion sending subliminal messages in its own output.

Jokes aside, the continual pounding on the verification stats continues.

[cooling climate]

After a maximum of -1c between midday and 3.00 pm temps have now risen to -0.5c

which is weird considering it is now completely dark and there has been no change

in the weather conditions ie dry and cloudy. Probably our second coldest day since

November. Crazy.

I would not be at all surprised to see a Thames streamer showing up over the next

couple of days similar to what the NAE model is showing although amounts may well

be small.

This very cold March is almost certainly due to the lag effect of the SSW which left the

zonal winds in a much weaker state and then a warming and very large mountain torque

event over Asia during the latter part of February with the lower part of the strat still in a

negative QBO state and a very cold strat above capping the stratosphere off so to speak.

This would allow the warming to have a much bigger impact I think similar to what we saw

in December 2010.

One thing to add the GFS temps have been almost spot on these last couple of days in

this locale. I did think a couple of days ago that they were on the low side of what we

would see but not so.

Edited March 24, 2013 by cooling climate

[chris55]

If the ECM det verified some places could see hours and hours, if not days, of snowfall. Much like we have just seen with some regions seeing 48+ hours of snow, the trend from the ECM is to introduce a similar pattern of stalling fronts fizzling only to be re-invigorated by renewed fronts pushing in. The difference this time is things are that bit further south.

Edited March 24, 2013 by chris55

[chris55]

Looking at the ECM ppn charts the initial front doesn't make it much past Devon, lets hope it pushes a bit further north!

Edited March 24, 2013 by chris55

[NickR]

Looking at the ECM ppn charts the initial front doesn't make it much past Devon, lets hope it pushes a bit further north!

Like 350 miles?

[Snowman.]

Looking at the ECM ppn charts the initial front doesn't make it much past Devon, lets hope it pushes a bit further north!

No really we could pick up convection if it moves to far north then it's just going to be a wash out south.

[Kentspur]

A terrific run for the snow lovers living in areas which missed out this time around, namely Southern Counties of England around the T120 period and then later into SW England and S Wales

Heres the precip moving in to the SW around the 120 period:

Heres the furthest north it heads:

And the associated dew points to go with it (in Fahrenheit):

And then the next band that moves in at 192:

Of course these details are liable to change between now and then, but an impressive run

SK

Wouldn't call this terrific for my area too far south the last few days and most of the winter and this looks like missing us too narrowly- run out of groan adjectives now!

Couldn't make it up! That first band which is still FI comes about as far north as the lot that was just too far south of us the other week Dartford really is the snowless capital of the country it seems to just go everywhere except our area within a few miles radius

Edited March 24, 2013 by Kentspur

[LomondSnowstorm]

Found this one on Twitter..

GFS continues its crisis of confidence and takes it to new levels of confusion sending subliminal messages in its own output.

Jokes aside, the continual pounding on the verification stats continues.

GFS is now consistently behind the GEM for all ranges and is very close to being overtaken by the JMA. Very much backs up the MO's low regard for the model and perhaps the only reason it looks good is in the very short range where its main 'free' rival is the equally woeful NAE.

[chris55]

Like 350 miles?

Durham has had loads of snow this winter, has it not? I seem to remember Durham being mentioned many times throughout the season when it comes to snowfall. Let those further south have a shot.

[chionomaniac]

Durham has had loads of snow this winter, has it not? I seem to remember Durham being mentioned many times throughout the season when it comes to snowfall. Let those further south have a shot.

......or just discuss the models - not who has fared better or worse.

[NickR]

Durham has had loads of snow this winter, has it not? I seem to remember Durham being mentioned many times throughout the season when it comes to snowfall. Let those further south have a shot.

We've had decent falls, but nothing major, and we've missed out on all the big west to east blizzard events.

How about letting us have a shot at one of them?

THat said, given the tendency for these systems to correct south, it looks like it could end up in France.

Edited March 24, 2013 by NickR

[peterf]

Durham has had loads of snow this winter, has it not? I seem to remember Durham being mentioned many times throughout the season when it comes to snowfall. Let those further south have a shot.

you can have the lot, even next years as far as i'm concerned.

[Mucka]

today the ukraine

Today the UK

[Cloud 10]

Start of British summer time=clocks go forward.

=

[snowking]

Right then, tonights ops for day 6:

UKMO and ECMWF really rather similar with the GFS getting there slowly it seems

Ensemble means from both GFS and ECMWF back the UKMO/ECM det. consensus:

Trough disruption looks the form horse moving forward, and with these sort of MEAN 850mb values:

Snowfall looks in the mix once again

SK

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens show strong support for an undercutting low situation and to keep the UK cold throughout.

Not good news for mild lovers I'm afraid.

Better get out the big guns